Halloween/November 1st OBS: Rain, Thunder, Wind, Plunging Temps, You Name It

[Rainshadow]

Here's to pcpn induced reduced mixing or the GFS being drunk again.

[Rainshadow]

Slight risk just west of us (looks like it clips Berks & Lancaster):

...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic States...
   Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the
   broad pre-frontal warm sector from the Southeast into the northern
   Mid-Atlantic. Moisture advection ahead of the front will likely
   result in low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast, upper 60s/low 70s
   across much of the Mid-Atlantic, and mid 60s as far north as PA and
   NJ. Diurnal heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and
   antecedent precipitation but ample low-level moisture will still
   result in modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) ahead of
   the front. Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
   through the mid to late afternoon. Thereafter, the fast-moving cold
   front will likely catch up to these pre-frontal storms, leading to a
   consolidation of all the deep convection along the front. 

   The strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the entire
   region and a few of the pre-frontal storms may be able to organize
   enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.
   Once storms consolidate along the front, strong forcing for ascent
   attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with vertically veering
   wind profiles will likely lead to a narrow but well-organized
   convective line. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat within
   the line and the highest coverage of severe storms is currently
   expected across the Mid-Atlantic states, from central PA through
   western SC. A few tornadoes are possible within the line,
   particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic where low-level flow
   will be strongest. 

   Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
   supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
   However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
   late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
   deep convection.

[cbelke]

8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Slight risk just west of us (looks like it clips Berks & Lancaster):

...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic States...
   Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the
   broad pre-frontal warm sector from the Southeast into the northern
   Mid-Atlantic. Moisture advection ahead of the front will likely
   result in low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast, upper 60s/low 70s
   across much of the Mid-Atlantic, and mid 60s as far north as PA and
   NJ. Diurnal heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and
   antecedent precipitation but ample low-level moisture will still
   result in modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) ahead of
   the front. Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
   through the mid to late afternoon. Thereafter, the fast-moving cold
   front will likely catch up to these pre-frontal storms, leading to a
   consolidation of all the deep convection along the front. 

   The strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the entire
   region and a few of the pre-frontal storms may be able to organize
   enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.
   Once storms consolidate along the front, strong forcing for ascent
   attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with vertically veering
   wind profiles will likely lead to a narrow but well-organized
   convective line. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat within
   the line and the highest coverage of severe storms is currently
   expected across the Mid-Atlantic states, from central PA through
   western SC. A few tornadoes are possible within the line,
   particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic where low-level flow
   will be strongest. 

   Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
   supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
   However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
   late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
   deep convection.

 

Thoughts on the warned area moving East a bit or being expanded? 

[JimCaruso]

4 hours ago, cbelke said:

 

Thoughts on the warned area moving East a bit or being expanded? 

It shifted east and also upgraded. 
 

I love rainy days and storms but hoping we can squeeze in trick-or-treating. Sounds like we may have a dry period after the warm front lifts north, while we are in the warm sector, with the cold front not expected to come through until late.

 

 

[irishbri74]

Fall squall

 

 

[susqushawn]

7 hours ago, cbelke said:

 

Thoughts on the warned area moving East a bit or being expanded? 

Fun on Halloween

[JimCaruso]

4 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Fall squall

 

 

that would be ideal - get the trick or treating in with the kids, and still have a solid line of storms to look forward to after - likely the last chance until spring??

[rafpsu]

Trick or treating was moved to tonight (due to tomorrow’s predicted weather) in a lot of areas around Reading in Berks County, including my township. Kids got a little wet tonight but overall a good call, no heavy rain or high winds.

[susqushawn]

Eww no way.  Berks is too soft

[rafpsu]

13 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Eww no way.  Berks is too soft

Haha I wasn’t on board with it when the change was made, but I can recognize a good call and the kids had a good time tonght. Hopefully tomorrow night everyone gets theirs in. 

[Chubbs]

Latest thinking is frontal convection
   will begin to increase in coverage/intensity by 18z from eastern KY
   into southwest PA, then an upward-evolving squall line with
   potentially damaging winds should surge east toward the Delmarva,
   extending south into southern VA, possibly into NC by early evening.
   Linear storm mode certainly favors straight-line wind damage as
   storm motions are forecast to be quite fast. A few embedded
   tornadoes can not be ruled out due to the strength of the wind
   fields.

[cbelke]

.8" @ 6 AM

[susqushawn]

.51

[eastonwx]

1.02" since  yesterday AM

[Chubbs]

75 knots @1km on NAM3k

[mshaffer526]

0.38" so far

[jmister]

Not an ob, but there wasn't a thread for it. Here's the 1300 Day 1 outlook:

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

75 knots @1km on NAM3k 

Nasty low level jet. Strongest winds look like they are over NJ where is 60-75 kts at 2500'

[Chubbs]

0.70"

[cbelke]

.83" as of 9 AM. Should be an interesting evening coming up. While there is a break in the rain, make sure everything is battened down.

[frankdp23]

Yesterday through this morning, .57"

[mshaffer526]

70/67 at home...not a bad June day.

[greg ralls]

Many of us have been upgraded to Enhanced Risk. 10% tor chance for Maryland, too with a 5% chance for many of us.

[jmister]

Closeup of wind probs from 1630:

Sorry for the funky colors

[irishbri74]

Squall alReady producing some decent gusts /radar velocity