30 day accuracy?

[CameronCat]

This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

[Rainshadow]

11 hours ago, CameronCat said:

This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

I would imagine if one applied statistical methodology to evaluate a daily forecast probability of precipitation skill's it would drop down to random chance somewhere around day 9.  I haven't done it in a while but weekly outlooks don't start showing some significant temperature improvement until we go from week 3 to week 2.  This is not to say one can't get the general pattern right in week 3 or 4, but narrowing down specificity to a day........

 

[CameronCat]

Thank you -- that's about what I thought.
My conversation partner put(s) way-more credence in the extended long range forecasts than they merit. 
I need to convince him that "sayin' don't make it so."

Thanks again.

[Heisenberg]

Ignoring the finances, If we could observe meteorological data from every square mile of the earth and input it into the models would we be able to forecast months in advance? 

[Rainshadow]

On 9/5/2021 at 6:34 PM, Heisenberg said:

Ignoring the finances, If we could observe meteorological data from every square mile of the earth and input it into the models would we be able to forecast months in advance? 

Are we going up to 50,000 feet also?

[icicleman]

21 hours ago, Rainshadow23.0 said:

Are we going up to 50,000 feet also?

Not a met, but don't forget the other direction.  Might need to monitor deep sea currents and circulation and geothermal activity and whatever else is "going on under the ground."  (And there's also butterfly wings, although that seems solvable.)

[Rainshadow]

8 hours ago, icicleman said:

Not a met, but don't forget the other direction.  Might need to monitor deep sea currents and circulation and geothermal activity and whatever else is "going on under the ground."  (And there's also butterfly wings, although that seems solvable.)

Yes.