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30 day accuracy?


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This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

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11 hours ago, CameronCat said:

This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

I would imagine if one applied statistical methodology to evaluate a daily forecast probability of precipitation skill's it would drop down to random chance somewhere around day 9.  I haven't done it in a while but weekly outlooks don't start showing some significant temperature improvement until we go from week 3 to week 2.  This is not to say one can't get the general pattern right in week 3 or 4, but narrowing down specificity to a day........

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