Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2019 Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 Can't say I disagree with CPC with the way recent Septembers have gone and our bath water ocean temps. Anyway MJO wise looks like phase 1 or 2 to start the month; correlation not the best, but 2 is not a warm phase. Welcome to fall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2019 I suppose nearby anomalies could be worse. Outside of the Gulf, the tropics look closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2019 ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2019 Now for the opposite response: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2019 I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond. Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish. Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land. Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2019 Report Share Posted August 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond. Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish. Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land. Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away. Forget where I wrote it but first ten days of September should verify normal to below. Mjo in cooler phases during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2019 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Forget where I wrote it but first ten days of September should verify normal to below. Mjo in cooler phases during that period. It has been the recent M.O. of a closer to normal first half and warmer than normal second half of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2019 On 8/22/2019 at 7:10 AM, Rainshadow said: I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond. Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish. Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land. Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away. Thermally it has to get within day 8 or so to keep the legs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 25, 2019 Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 21 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Steady as she goes. Could make for good beach weather Labor Day weekend before that front rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: Steady as she goes. Could make for good beach weather Labor Day weekend before that front rolls through Barney got lurched westward last night. Tom talks about the ensembles being influenced too much by the operational or control. Just from a confidence stand point going forward where it matters more, I'd like to see a Omaha moment and not have it go east tomorrow night. The Sunday evening part not as slow. Looks like Barney drank a 5 hour energy for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2019 Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 I ❤️ Barney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2019 Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 Barney May get delayed, but he will never be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 7 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Barney May get delayed, but he will never be denied Time soon to start modulating this new GFS. Not sure if "the fix" did much to correct the already documented even more progressive bias. We know the Euro can be slow. So here is question #1: The GFS is_____? A) Too fast B ) Just right C) Aiming To Stay Ahead Of The JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2019 Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 All I see is Barney maturing in the plains. Grazing in the fields getting his protein in before he lays the smack down on the figs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2019 Report Share Posted August 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Time soon to start modulating this new GFS. Not sure if "the fix" did much to correct the already documented even more progressive bias. We know the Euro can be slow. So here is question #1: The GFS is_____? A) Too fast B ) Just right C) Aiming To Stay Ahead Of The JMA Gfs to fast. Mjo supports a warm period but cool shot will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2019 Barney losing some of his farther south CONUS fangs. GFS has not and would be an ugly Sunday & Labor Day because of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 26, 2019 Report Share Posted August 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Barney losing some of his farther south CONUS fangs. GFS has not and would be an ugly Sunday & Labor Day because of rain. We won't get Barney here, doesn't support that depth of trough on the east coast the pattern. This has the look of into southern plains then kind of scoots north of us but we get some of it. Euro was pretty ugly for Sunday and Labor Day as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 27, 2019 Report Share Posted August 27, 2019 I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing these booming HP’S sprawling down from Canada means we might actually have a early fall!?!?or seasonable. Still think we may have to contend with a random 90’s day or 2... but 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 27, 2019 Report Share Posted August 27, 2019 2 hours ago, irishbri74 said: I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing these booming HP’S sprawling down from Canada means we might actually have a early fall!?!?or seasonable. Still think we may have to contend with a random 90’s day or 2... but Its tempting to believe a genuine early fall could occur. Long term modeling has been predominantly favoring east coast troughing for several weeks. Ready for my first night in the 40's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2019 11 hours ago, susqushawn said: Its tempting to believe a genuine early fall could occur. Long term modeling has been predominantly favoring east coast troughing for several weeks. Ready for my first night in the 40's Having big ol' highs build into southeast Canada used to be more of a September staple around here. The MJO phases still favor cooler (than normal) weather for the first half of the month and if still the driver warmer (than normal) weather during the second half. It wouldn't be an awful outcome negating 90s early which have been there for more than the last several Septembers and then have some 80s continue thru the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2019 On 8/22/2019 at 7:10 AM, Rainshadow said: I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond. Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish. Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land. Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away. I guess all things relative, it is still cooler looking than the start of last September, but the ensembles have trended toward at or above normal for Labor Day week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 Barney decided to stay in the Plains for Labor Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 This is still beyond lock down time, but after Dorian and its attending ridge to its north, the EPS trends cooler than normal from next Thursday onward. Tom likes his 90s, so their best shot at it is this Friday and again next Wednesday,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2019 😣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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