Rainshadow Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Haven't posted a AWC outlook map all summer. They are pretty good with this. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Sounds like kind of fun afternoon on tap, maybe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Actually had my best thunderstorm of the season this morning around 430. Lots of thunder and lightning. .47" of rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Another clear warm sector. Should be a fun day of storms!;stay safe ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Shear perking up on the hi-res models above 35kts, not sure how accurate they are, and I look forward to being bubbled this afternoon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Latest SPC update looks pretty similar to the previous one. Hope it's game on in a few hours! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 All areas: Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have started to develop from the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast in an environment with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Effective shear around 30 knots will support multicell clusters and lines capable of both large hail and damaging winds. Mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 to 7 C/km will support a greater threat for large hail in this region than farther south across Virginia and North Carolina. The greatest threat for both large hail and damaging winds will be from central Maryland northeast into far southeast New York where storm coverage, instability, and shear will be maximized ahead of an MCV currently out of far eastern West Virginia. A watch will be issued soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Solid Low level lapse rates and 25-35knots bulk shear should be enough to see some wind reports today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Ohh, and cape, plenty of CAPE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Nice looking storm rolling into me at work 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Very intense storm. Heavy rain, very gusty winds, and lots of thunder and lightning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 STW posted till 9 PM. Thought they might issue a flood watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverTheRainbow Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 First rumbles in Media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Storm west and east of me been quite dry here last couple weeks could use some rain. Also see attached down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ - storms just passing off shore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OverTheRainbow Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Add moderate rain to the rumbles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 39 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: Very intense storm. Heavy rain, very gusty winds, and lots of thunder and lightning. those storms just missed Piscataway to the south, thunder very impressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 A few rumbles to the west of Plymouth Meeting as a cell passed nearby. Looks like weaker cells are now approaching from the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaia Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Just had a small cell roll through Towamencin. Refreshing outflow with it. It was short and sweet, but had impressive rain and probably the best and most consistent wind gusts out of any storm I've seen here this season (I was in Philly for the Tornado day at the end of May). Great thunder and lightning show, too. Heat surged right back in the second the rain turned off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jec6 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 We had a few pebbles of hail with the first storm that passed through Wayne/KoP area about 20 mins ago. Started out with some very loud thunder, then very heavy rain rates and decent wind. Mixed in with the rain was pea-sized hail for about 2 mins, then it quickly stopped and settled down. Just had a second cel push through, but not nearly as exciting as the first from a wind or rain rate perspective Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 I think we had a some very minor hail pinging off the roof and windows for a few seconds. Hard to say since it rained so hard for about the first two minutes before tapering off. Got .33" out of that cell (.58" so far today)and the Eww Point dropped from 77 to 71. Still got plenty more moisture to wring out of the atmosphere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Back side of the cell that just passed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Winds aloft must be impressive. Nothing falling overhead with the radar depiction. Meanwhile I can see it dumping just south of here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaia Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 We have some pretty big branches down all throughout Towamencin. Looks like that cute little cell or earlier was a lot stronger than I thought. There is a car near me that is completely covered in half of a tree. The largest part of the trunk missed the car by inches. Looks like that cute little cell earlier was a lot stronger than I thought. There is a car near me that is completely covered and half of a tree. The largest part of the trunk missed the car by inches. There's a road closure in Upper Gwynedd due to a tree down. Lots of big branches and other tree debris all around the area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaia Posted August 7, 2019 Report Share Posted August 7, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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