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8/7 Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorm Obs


Bananashadow
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Haven't posted a AWC outlook map all summer.  They are pretty good with this. 

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 ...Eastern Seaboard...
   An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as
   southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from
   the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will
   advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A
   pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface
   dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F
   to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of
   instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to
   eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough
   approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west
   of the strongest instability with convection moving
   east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is
   forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern
   states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable
   for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line
   segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late
   afternoon.
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All areas:

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
   evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have started to develop from the
   Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast in an environment with
   temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
   Effective shear around 30 knots will support multicell clusters and
   lines capable of both large hail and damaging winds. Mid-level lapse
   rates around 6.5 to 7 C/km will support a greater threat for large
   hail in this region than farther south across Virginia and North
   Carolina. The greatest threat for both large hail and damaging winds
   will be from central Maryland northeast into far southeast New York
   where storm coverage, instability, and shear will be maximized ahead
   of an MCV currently out of far eastern West Virginia. A watch will
   be issued soon.
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Just had a small cell roll through Towamencin. Refreshing outflow with it. It was short and sweet, but had impressive rain and probably the best and most consistent wind gusts out of any storm I've seen here this season (I was in Philly for the Tornado day at the end of May). Great thunder and lightning show, too. Heat surged right back in the second the rain turned off. 

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We had a few pebbles of hail with the first storm that passed through Wayne/KoP area about 20 mins ago.  Started out with some very loud thunder, then very heavy rain rates and decent wind.  Mixed in with the rain was pea-sized  hail for about 2 mins, then it quickly stopped and settled down.

 

Just had a second cel push through, but not nearly as exciting as the first from a wind or rain rate perspective

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I think we had a some very minor hail pinging off the roof and windows for a few seconds. Hard to say since it rained so hard for about the first two minutes before tapering off. Got .33" out of that cell (.58" so far today)and the Eww Point dropped from 77 to 71. Still got plenty more moisture to wring out of the atmosphere.

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We have some pretty big branches down all throughout Towamencin. Looks like that cute little cell or earlier was a lot stronger than I thought. There is a car near me that is completely covered in half of a tree. The largest part of the trunk missed the car by inches. Looks like that cute little cell earlier was a lot stronger than I thought. There is a car near me that is completely covered and half of a tree. The largest part of the trunk missed the car by inches. There's a road closure in Upper Gwynedd due to a tree down. Lots of big branches and other tree debris all around the area.

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