Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 ...Northeast/Middle Atlantic... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to dig southeast across WI, then translate through the base of Great Lakes trough into New England by 03/12z. In response to this feature, surface low is expected to deepen over QC which will encourage a surface front to surge east during the day. Latest model guidance suggests wind shift will extend from upstate NY-central PA-KY by 18z. Pronounced boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the wind shift which will allow for appreciable air mass destabilization as far north as the lower Hudson River Valley. Convection may be ongoing along the front at day break Sunday across southern ON into the OH Valley and extensive cloudiness should limit buoyancy farther north near the international border. Deep westerly flow, with surface-6km bulk shear on the order of 25-30kt suggests organized line segments and multi-cell updrafts will be the most common storm mode. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 25kt-30kt of shear is below the shear we had any of the days last week. So we will see if mid 50s TT(s) can compensate for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 I havent looked at the dynamics or anything for today, but its nice to see us smack in the middle of the slight zone for once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, Rockchops said: I havent looked at the dynamics or anything for today, but its nice to see us smack in the middle of the slight zone for once. The DCapes today are pretty impressive, although the convecting models look like their get up and go has gone up and went. Attempts at lining seem to fall short. I am not saying it is today and other than it happens in May or June if rarely at all, but once in a blue moon, you just get severe gusts propagating for miles and miles beyond the storms, even if they dissipate. That inverted V sounding has the look, but I'd have more luck forecasting my way out of a paper bag than picking a day when something like above can occur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: The DCapes today are pretty impressive, although the convecting models look like their get up and go has gone up and went. Attempts at lining seem to fall short. I am not saying it is today and other than it happens in May or June if rarely at all, but once in a blue moon, you just get severe gusts propagating for miles and miles beyond the storms, even if they dissipate. That inverted V sounding has the look, but I'd have more luck forecasting my way out of a paper bag than picking a day when something like above can occur. They lost the EML it looks like. Not seeing nearly as much dry air aloft above 800mb as yesterday’s sounding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Congrats? The one day I try and detail my car... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Thunder, but no rain, from this developing cell that missed to the north. Headed to Delco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Pretty intense storm heading toward West Chester and Pocopson. Hail of some kind and maybe strong winds likely with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Another small but intense storm is over Pennsauken and Cinnaminson along the Delaware River. Hail and strong winds possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkersc Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Now pouring in West Chester. Been continuous thunder for the last 20 minutes. One cell passed to the south but a new one popped up just to the southwest and exploded in just 10 minutes. @westchesterweather on IG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 TPHL Suggests sudden Downbursts are possible in both the Chester Heights and Moorestown storms. Also dangerous lightning for people who may be out and off their guard due to the fast formation of the storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Looking south from Royersford at the SVR warned storm near KOP. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Mount Laurel heavy rain, no wind. Just finished cutting the grass half hour ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthernNJ said: TPHL Suggests sudden Downbursts are possible in both the Chester Heights and Moorestown storms. Also dangerous lightning for people who may be out and off their guard due to the fast formation of the storms. I was in the Lima/Chester heights cell. When the core hit, winds picked up pretty big for a minute or so. Probably gusted to 40, maybe 50 very briefly. Pea sized hail. Maybe some small downburst possible. Had a wind shift as it passed in the opposite direction. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Nice 36 degree contrast in temps across PA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Incoming 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Intense storm east of Oxford, moving toward New London. Should put down some hail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, SouthernNJ said: Intense storm east of Oxford, moving toward New London. Should put down some hail. Yup, had some small hail, even though we just caught the edge, only 0.03" 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Lots of lightning.... A couple strikes within three miles so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Starting to rumble to my west, looks like its directly over the Delaware river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Strong winds, one close strike - 0.24" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 With the newest storm cluster, the hail is in Wilmington/Bellefonte, and the winds are in Salem/Quinton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Just some embedded heavy rain showers here in Pennsville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkersc Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 68F with 0.31" in the bucket for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 2, 2019 Report Share Posted June 2, 2019 Up in Pottstown - Home Depot. Peasize hail. Winds 40-50 mph initially. (best guess). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.