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June 2nd Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Obs


Bananashadow
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...Northeast/Middle Atlantic...

   Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to dig southeast across WI, then
   translate through the base of Great Lakes trough into New England by
   03/12z. In response to this feature, surface low is expected to
   deepen over QC which will encourage a surface front to surge east
   during the day. Latest model guidance suggests wind shift will
   extend from upstate NY-central PA-KY by 18z. Pronounced
   boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the wind shift which
   will allow for appreciable air mass destabilization as far north as
   the lower Hudson River Valley. Convection may be ongoing along the
   front at day break Sunday across southern ON into the OH Valley and
   extensive cloudiness should limit buoyancy farther north near the
   international border. Deep westerly flow, with surface-6km bulk
   shear on the order of 25-30kt suggests organized line segments and
   multi-cell updrafts will be the most common storm mode. Locally
   damaging winds are the primary risk.
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13 minutes ago, Rockchops said:

I havent looked at the dynamics or anything for today, but its nice to see us smack in the middle of the slight zone for once.

The DCapes today are pretty impressive, although the convecting models look like their get up and go has gone up and went.  Attempts at lining seem to fall short.  I am not saying it is today and other than it happens in May or June if rarely at all, but once in a blue moon, you just get severe gusts propagating for miles and miles beyond the storms, even if they dissipate.  That inverted V sounding has the look, but I'd have more luck forecasting my way out of a paper bag than picking a day when something like above can occur.

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26 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The DCapes today are pretty impressive, although the convecting models look like their get up and go has gone up and went.  Attempts at lining seem to fall short.  I am not saying it is today and other than it happens in May or June if rarely at all, but once in a blue moon, you just get severe gusts propagating for miles and miles beyond the storms, even if they dissipate.  That inverted V sounding has the look, but I'd have more luck forecasting my way out of a paper bag than picking a day when something like above can occur.

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They lost the EML it looks like. Not seeing nearly as much dry air aloft above 800mb as yesterday’s sounding 

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Now pouring in West Chester.  Been continuous thunder for the last 20 minutes.  One cell passed to the south but a new one popped up just to the southwest and exploded in just 10 minutes.

 

@westchesterweather on IG

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1 hour ago, SouthernNJ said:

TPHL Suggests sudden Downbursts are possible in both the Chester Heights and

Moorestown storms.  Also dangerous lightning for people who may be out and

off their guard due to the fast formation of the storms.

I was in the Lima/Chester heights cell. When the core hit, winds picked up pretty big for a minute or so. Probably gusted to 40, maybe 50 very briefly. Pea sized hail. Maybe some small downburst possible. Had a wind shift as it passed in the opposite direction. 

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