Chubbs Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Additionally, a weak low expected to cross the region may provide locally backed low-level winds over eastern portions of the risk area by afternoon, possibly providing local enhancement to the otherwise limited tornado risk. Greatest tornado threat appears to exist over southeastern Pennsylvania, parts of northern and eastern Maryland, and into southern New Jersey/northern Delaware later in the afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 As of this morning, "only" a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Charlie's post about tornadoes, is thread starter. ...Parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys eastward to the mid Atlantic region... As diurnal heating commences in the vicinity of the lingering cold front, convective development is expected to begin -- possibly by late morning -- from portions of the Tennessee and upper Ohio Valleys into the central Appalachians as the aforementioned lead perturbation advances quickly eastward across the region. With fast westerly flow throughout the troposphere, storms should spread quickly eastward, both as bands/clusters as well as a few isolated -- possibly rotating -- storms. Along with risk for hail, damaging winds are expected locally. Additionally, a weak low expected to cross the region may provide locally backed low-level winds over eastern portions of the risk area by afternoon, possibly providing local enhancement to the otherwise limited tornado risk. Greatest tornado threat appears to exist over southeastern Pennsylvania, parts of northern and eastern Maryland, and into southern New Jersey/northern Delaware later in the afternoon. Severe risk should gradually diminish into the evening, as storms weaken diurnally and gradually move offshore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Another Flash Flood Watch too: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: Another Flash Flood Watch too: Stop posting this stuff. Every time you do, it happens. Post lottery numbers or something. I might take some of the blame because I mentioned I could walk around my entire yard for the first time in 16 months. We have 2.09" over the past 48 hours. Another 1" - 2" is not what we need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Enough with the rain! Ever since the snow melted in March of 2018 it's been non-stop sodden ground. 1.80" in NW Chesco the last 2 days. Hoping now that the water has cooled off the east coast we can get away from the persistent heavy rain events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, cbelke said: Stop posting this stuff. Every time you do, it happens. Post lottery numbers or something. I might take some of the blame because I mentioned I could walk around my entire yard for the first time in 16 months. We have 2.09" over the past 48 hours. Another 1" - 2" is not what we need. When I started that 90s thread a week ago, I posted that this was morphing into a heavy rain threat. But I totally missed the (needed) boat about the severe weather potential. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, iceman56 said: Enough with the rain! Ever since the snow melted in March of 2018 it's been non-stop sodden ground. 1.80" in NW Chesco the last 2 days. Hoping now that the water has cooled off the east coast we can get away from the persistent heavy rain events. It has been our M.O. since then that we may have a dry week or two and then that comes to a crashing halt with more heavy precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 The MCS moving into C PA is not fizzling out yet despite hi-res models depicting that to occur. Models show discrete cells popping out ahead then merging into bow lines Shear per the 12z NAM is impressive, exactly what that equates to in storm mode I don't know 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 A lot more cloud debris today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 think flash flooding is biggest risk today. WPC has moderate risk for our area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 So it begins.. Short down pour happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely coming soon per SPC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0897.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Hrrr valid 21z: probably a supercell or 2 in there for thebregion. (And verbatim, in this run, areas that got hit hard yesterday). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 I guess folks at the Phillies game should root for a pitchers' duel that doesn't go extra innings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Hrrr valid 21z: probably a supercell or 2 in there for thebregion. (And verbatim, in this run, areas that got hit hard yesterday). HRDPS has a similar look to it for max cells. Although the HRDPS is to thunderstorms what the FV3 is to snow. The very generic TT(s) are somewhat "stabler" than yesterday & Tuesday, around 50 vs the mid 50s the previous two days. Dew Points are starting to respond in NJ. You are right about not having a clean a sky pre convection, but the timing is pretty good. I am just glad I cut my grass on Monday even though it didn't really need it that day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 9 PM for most of the area. Already a Tornado Warning in Maryland well west of Baltimore near the Appalachian Trail and near where Blair Witch Project was set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Not feeling the severe threat today. Lack of sun, not much of an EML present. Think severe is Mainly south of tpk and better chance south of city. This feels like a day with moisture loaded storms 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Impressive shear of 55-60+ knots across the area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 My friend in Columbia, Maryland who had a tornado snap trees in half just a mile south of his house last week is under a Tornado Warning again right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Not feeling the severe threat today. Lack of sun, not much of an EML present. Think severe is Mainly south of tpk and better chance south of city. This feels like a day with moisture loaded storms Agreed. Storms coming into the area look they are primarily rain at this point. Nothing severe to the North, but around the Mason Dixon line, another story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 .95 yesterday with some dime size hail. .93 today. Think since last friday I have had like 3" of rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 0.31" Got in 17 holes before the rains came. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chubbs said: 0.31" Got in 17 holes before the rains came. Where is your dedication to finish 18? You only had one more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 .51" so far today. 2.60" since this fun started on 5/28. The lawn is officially back to mud bog status. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 and is pouring again NOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.