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5/28 Day I Of Multiple Days Of Enhanced Thunder Obs, Take That You Stinkin' 90s.


Bananashadow
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Thread title caveat, I know today is the only day we are in enhanced threat for severe, more about greater than climo thunder chances, than type of thunder.

day1otlk_1200.gif.b9dcf1bef1a009aed811660476e38a5b.gif

...Ohio to New Jersey...
   Convection and associated cloud cover is progged to be ongoing
   across portions of the risk area at the start of the period, ahead
   of a surface low moving slowly east across the Lake Erie vicinity. 
   The convection should move eastward/diminish through midday,
   allowing some heating/destabilization to occur -- fueling new storm
   development, likely by early afternoon.  Storms development may be
   focused by the presence of remnant outflow associated with the
   earlier storms, though coherence -- and location -- of this possible
   boundary remains uncertain, dependent upon evolution of the ongoing
   convection.

   With fast/weakly veering west to west-northwesterly flow with height
   progged atop the region, clusters of organized/fast-moving storms
   are expected to evolve.  At this time, damaging winds would appear
   to be the primary severe risk, along with hail.  Tornado threat
   should be somewhat limited by only modest veering of the flow with
   height, but ample low-level speed shear suggests low-probability
   tornado risk during the afternoon.

   With regeneration of successive bands of storms possible, within the
   west-northwesterly flow regime, severe risk will likely linger
   through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours.
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IMO this is pretty much the start of our severe weather season. Thru the end of July it is tough to have ongoing thunder in the afternoon or first half of the evening and not have at least one go severe.  June from what I remember was the absolute best (or worst depending on your opinion) for this.

 

 

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1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Moving through faster than I thought. Was thinking 9-11 time frame. 

 

Def some clearing behind it if this plows through. Guess we’ll know by 11-12.

A7695C83-F9D9-49E5-9708-070DABC9141B.jpeg

Plus Tom will remind us the days are pretty long now and there is plenty of time for air mass recovery.

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I know this is kind of a captain obvious post, but just using the SigEff Tornado as a proxy for the time of the strongest storms, it is late this afternoon just in the warm sector.  I saw model forecast dew points in the 70s, so if you are checking activity, make sure the dew points look representative.  (Lack of) Shear not an issue.

 

 

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But back home, check out the 3k name for 21z in sepa. Have to wonder what that stuff out west of state college will do. Too early and we don’t recover enough, as well as cloud debris. Notice that our EML has survival bed a bit better than last event. (Bottom left of the sounding. 700-500mb LR @ 6.8°c/km

3FBD9491-608A-44D3-ABF0-99F409C916F2.png

5BFCA455-E7D7-4664-B03C-33FD8B053270.png

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Upgrade confirmed!

 

 With fast/weakly veering west to west-northwesterly flow with height
   progged atop the region, clusters of organized/fast-moving storms
   are expected to evolve. This could include splitting supercells,
   particularly before more linearly organized clusters/bow evolve. At
   this time, damaging winds would appear to be the primary severe
   risk, along with severe hail. Tornado threat should be somewhat
   limited by only modest veering of the flow with height, but ample
   low-level speed shear suggests at least some possibility for a
   tornado or two during the afternoon. With regeneration of successive
   bands of storms possible, within the west-northwesterly flow regime,
   severe risk will likely linger through the evening and possibly into
   the overnight hours.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/28/2019

54F23AA1-4E93-42F4-948D-6D3FFBF1DDE6.png

6997A7F4-2A74-49DA-A2CA-C21A72433B7C.gif

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39 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Upgrade confirmed!

 


 With fast/weakly veering west to west-northwesterly flow with height
   progged atop the region, clusters of organized/fast-moving storms
   are expected to evolve. This could include splitting supercells,
   particularly before more linearly organized clusters/bow evolve. At
   this time, damaging winds would appear to be the primary severe
   risk, along with severe hail. Tornado threat should be somewhat
   limited by only modest veering of the flow with height, but ample
   low-level speed shear suggests at least some possibility for a
   tornado or two during the afternoon. With regeneration of successive
   bands of storms possible, within the west-northwesterly flow regime,
   severe risk will likely linger through the evening and possibly into
   the overnight hours.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/28/2019

54F23AA1-4E93-42F4-948D-6D3FFBF1DDE6.png

6997A7F4-2A74-49DA-A2CA-C21A72433B7C.gif

I don't think I have seen an enhanced not surrounded by a slight before.  0.15" already today 2nd most we have had on any day since May 14th.

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't think I have seen an enhanced not surrounded by a slight before.  0.15" already today 2nd most we have had on any day since May 14th.

I was thinking the same thing, but the SPC has since cleaned up their outlook graphic.

day1otlk_1300.gif.1247f79b207220f8f61e4e1bb5093d1f.gif

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As I mentioned in the general thunderstorms thread before I saw the dedicated thread to the Enhanced Risk:

Poured all along Germantown Pike from Collegeville to Plymouth Meeting between 8-9 AM, so would that be more likely to inhibit severe development later or perhaps enhance it by setting up a boundary? Or is it really more dependent upon how much clearing happens over the next several hours? Still quite overcast here in Plymouth Meeting.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0852.html

95%  chance of tornado watch...

 

Mesoscale Discussion 852
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 852 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281702Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and will
   likely become severe. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
   tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 50-70
   knots is stretching across the Great Lakes into the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A shortwave trough embedded within this
   zonal flow currently entering the Great Lakes region will move
   eastward throughout the day helping to provide forcing for ascent
   and strengthen deep layer shear. A surface low is located just
   east-southeast of Buffalo, NY with a warm front stretching to the
   southeast through northeast PA and central NJ. This warm front
   should lift east-northeast with the surface low forecast to track
   generally eastward. The Cu field is becoming increasingly agitated
   within the warm sector and storms are likely to develop in the next
   couple of hours.

   Storms are likely to develop across west/central PA and move
   east-southeast during the afternoon and evening into portions of
   NJ/MD/DE/southern NY. Supercell development is likely and few storms
   may remain discrete. Low-level veering is better to south/east
   across the region, but flow/shear is stronger farther to the north.
   Large hail is possible given forecast MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and
   effective bulk shear of 35-50 knots. Additionally, strong synoptic
   winds and steepening low-level lapse rates, especially where strong
   insolation occurs, will increase the severe wind threat. Tornadoes
   are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more
   southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast
   soundings.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   39767949 39848040 40378054 40878056 41458043 41818024
               42007982 42057791 41957629 41447465 41257439 40837422
               40457419 39887453 38977511 38587554 39077680 39307738
               39767949 
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2 minutes ago, jmister said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0852.html

95%  chance of tornado watch...

 

Mesoscale Discussion 852
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 852 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281702Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and will
   likely become severe. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
   tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 50-70
   knots is stretching across the Great Lakes into the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A shortwave trough embedded within this
   zonal flow currently entering the Great Lakes region will move
   eastward throughout the day helping to provide forcing for ascent
   and strengthen deep layer shear. A surface low is located just
   east-southeast of Buffalo, NY with a warm front stretching to the
   southeast through northeast PA and central NJ. This warm front
   should lift east-northeast with the surface low forecast to track
   generally eastward. The Cu field is becoming increasingly agitated
   within the warm sector and storms are likely to develop in the next
   couple of hours.

   Storms are likely to develop across west/central PA and move
   east-southeast during the afternoon and evening into portions of
   NJ/MD/DE/southern NY. Supercell development is likely and few storms
   may remain discrete. Low-level veering is better to south/east
   across the region, but flow/shear is stronger farther to the north.
   Large hail is possible given forecast MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and
   effective bulk shear of 35-50 knots. Additionally, strong synoptic
   winds and steepening low-level lapse rates, especially where strong
   insolation occurs, will increase the severe wind threat. Tornadoes
   are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more
   southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast
   soundings.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   39767949 39848040 40378054 40878056 41458043 41818024
               42007982 42057791 41957629 41447465 41257439 40837422
               40457419 39887453 38977511 38587554 39077680 39307738
               39767949 

You guys are too fast, or I am too slow.

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