5/26 Slight Risk Of Severe Storms & Run At 90F OBS.

[Rainshadow]

 ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic Coast region...
   Models indicate that seasonably high boundary layer moisture content
   ahead of the southward advancing front will become characterized by
   moderate CAPE by this afternoon.  This will support potential for
   organizing clusters of thunderstorm activity, aided by forcing and
   shear associated with the perturbations progressing around the
   northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  Flow including 30-40+
   kt in the 700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to support occasional
   isolated supercells, but severe hail and wind appear the primary
   hazards in the presence of generally weak low-level hodographs.

[Rainshadow]

My Philly WAG is 88F.

 

[Rainshadow]

[Rainshadow]

I thumbed thru the mesoscale models and none of them are coincidental around the Philly metro area which implies hit/miss later.

[cbelke]

37 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I thumbed thru the mesoscale models and none of them are coincidental around the Philly metro area which implies hit/miss later.

I'm hoping for a miss.

[tombo82685]

EPS are pretty bullish for some rain late tonight into tomorrow morning. 

[tombo82685]

Hopefully these miss mt laurel so the yard can continue to dry out 

[Rainshadow]

21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Hopefully these miss mt laurel so the yard can continue to dry out 

It is working:

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Hopefully these miss mt laurel so the yard can continue to dry out 

I can read between the lines,

In other words, either south (more likely) or hit/miss (what is the difference)

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and move east across
   portions of the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours. Severe storm
   coverage is uncertain, but a few storms could become capable of
   severe wind/hail. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multi-cellular convection is currently moving eastward
   and developing across western PA and eastern WV/western MD. Per
   water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis a vorticity max is associated
   with this convection and remnant MCV may embedded within the western
   PA convection. For now, these storms appear to be elevated, but as
   insolation continues storms are likely to become surface-based.
   Ahead of these storms, a warm, moist airmass is in place with
   temperatures increasing into the 80s, especially across Del-Mar-VA,
   and dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s. Per mesoanalysis and
   forecast soundings, MLCAPE is currently 500-1000 J/kg and likely to
   increase to 1000-1500 J/kg in the next couple of hours as surface
   heating continues. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots with mostly
   unidirectional/speed shear will be sufficient for isolated
   supercellular storms. Additionally, as the boundary layer warms,
   low-level lapse rates will steepen, increasing chances for damaging
   wind gusts.

   Severe storm coverage still remains uncertain. While a few severe
   storms are likely to develop, coverage may not meet watch criteria,
   and poor mid-level lapse rates may inhibit severe hail production.
   However, convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch
   issuance with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

 

In other, other words:

 

[Rainshadow]

88F in Mount Laurel.  I looked at our 89F day, looks very similar in temperature progression to today.

10+10 for PHL 85 high not going to work.

6+12 for PHL 89 may be too high, but "like it" better than the 85. 

[Parsley]

DEL-YUUUUUUUUUGE  

Kids “needed” their ice cream though

[colonel_kurtz]

Gusty storm in progress 

[SouthernNJ]

A couple of storms in Lebanon are moving toward NW Chester county.  They appear

to be able to produce both hail and strong winds.  Quite a bit of lightning as well.

[Rainshadow]

1 hour ago, Parsley said:

DEL-YUUUUUUUUUGE  

Kids “needed” their ice cream though

Blizzard, like that.   Sniffing anvils here. 88F for a high in Mount Laurel.

[tombo82685]

.3 in gilly. Gilly > vay

[Rockchops]

In the midst of a good ol summer soaker in delco. Just wish it hadnt hit while I still have burgers and corn on the grill. Sun and rain now, anticipate a bajillion FB/IG rainbow pics in about 10 mins.

[Rainshadow]

4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

.3 in gilly. Gilly > vay

10:1 ratio, just like winter.

BTW expect the ongoing pcpn at your house to die it's usual death crossing the Delaware.

[Rainshadow]

12 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

My Philly WAG is 88F.

 

PHL high was 88F;  another miss of a 90 degree day, a moral victory til next time. 

[Rainshadow]

PNE (such a surprise) hit 90F as did Georgetown and Ocean City, MD.  Nooch did say that Ocean City, NJ was hot today; even Wildwood reached 89F.  Other Jersey 89F or 90F:

PNE Bias last four weeks:

PHL Intl by comparison has had a more neutral bias the last four weeks.

[Chubbs]

0.06"

[Rainshadow]

1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

0.06"

0.03".  I am noticing a PA to NJ correlation.

[cbelke]

.12" yesterday in Sellersville area.Light showers was all we got. 

Finished 18 holes at Shawnee at 4:40 PM, and at 4:42 the downpours started up in the Del. Water Gap. Much heavier rains just to the North us. Nothing severe, just heavy rains. 

[tombo82685]

Tacked I’m another .07 at night. Total was .37

[irishbri74]

Some interesting structure by the ambler cell yesterday as it passed just to my north. (Pics were from the backside of the storm, near the updraft).

[greg ralls]

Looks like a wall cloud, perhaps. Neat.