Rainshadow Posted April 20, 2019 Report Share Posted April 20, 2019 The climate/statistical enso models get through the upcoming meteorological winter with their latest outlooks: I have found them nino happy this time of year, but they were right last winter. Consecutive nino winters are rare, but not unfounded. Second consecutive nino winters in the past included: 1888-89* 1896-97* 1919-20 1930-31* 1958-59 1969-70 1977-78 1987-88* 2015-16* * One of those two winters had a strong el nino. Anyway shocker those winter average temps were: Including the strong nino winters: Tom calls this upcoming outlooked nino winter a Modoki in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 20, 2019 Report Share Posted April 20, 2019 50-75” region wide next winter 5 below zero nights. Figs dead by early November 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted April 20, 2019 Report Share Posted April 20, 2019 EXPERTS PREDICT A LONG, DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA's annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026. "We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum," says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 5, 2019 Report Share Posted May 5, 2019 lock it up 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 6, 2019 Report Share Posted May 6, 2019 17 hours ago, tombo82685 said: lock it up Getting a May preview 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2019 18 hours ago, tombo82685 said: lock it up I think I see a Modoki. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 7, 2019 Report Share Posted May 7, 2019 On 5/6/2019 at 7:03 AM, Rainshadow said: I think I see a Modoki. Modoki have become more common, east-based increasingly rare but stronger. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0353-3.epdf?author_access_token=CTVhPoRanSzZxeqmlCW5vtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O824PLTmnxWAGOnyIajby95c4-1kWJ3rRE2D6WBKcQPfdNWhCzna48s0WzTK_ieeCTn5iI_CSinF_nw5uZOrrL3zvh4XFd_BlgYsq6ZLRV6g%3D%3D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 8, 2019 Report Share Posted May 8, 2019 How much snow for Quakertown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said: How much snow for Quakertown? I hear one gets 10" for each member of the hula tour that visits your town. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted May 21, 2019 Report Share Posted May 21, 2019 FWIW, the Ukie seasonal model bases its NAO forecasts on the presence of cold water off of Newfoundland (the "cold pool") in May of the preceding winter. Based on current SSTA in that area, I'd say to look for a -NAO forecast from the Ukie come fall. Now if only predicting accurately the actual NAO forecast was as simple as predicting the forecast off the models....meh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2019 The June ENSO outlook for next winter took a slight downtick from the May dynamical/statistical models. It is borderline weak attm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2019 Here is weak ninos at PHL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2019 Here are all nino(s) in the CPC era only. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted June 25, 2019 Report Share Posted June 25, 2019 I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted June 26, 2019 Report Share Posted June 26, 2019 10 hours ago, Mitchnick said: I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol Mitch! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 26, 2019 Report Share Posted June 26, 2019 On 6/25/2019 at 9:45 AM, Mitchnick said: I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol Pacific looks good, with Tony's Modoki and baked Alaska waters, - too bad its June Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 15 hours ago, Chubbs said: Pacific looks good, with Tony's Modoki and baked Alaska waters, - too bad its June Jack Ordille (Jacko we miss you) gave me a research paper on the Newfoundland pool that used May-July, not just May for a -NAO. Nevertheless, that is two months in the book for that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Jack Ordille (Jacko we miss you) gave me a research paper on the Newfoundland pool that used May-July, not just May for a -NAO. Nevertheless, that is two months in the book for that too. Long run of NAO- recently, been a while Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 Slightly off topic, but I would imagine all the cool waters off the SW Africa coast are suppressing tropical wave development in the eastern Atlantic, though the central Atlantic basin and north of the Carribean look warm enough to support an early season storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Long run of NAO- recently, been a while Our mid winter SSWE/Split can be thanked for this... (finally ... 4 months too late lol) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 27, 2019 Report Share Posted June 27, 2019 51 minutes ago, PreserveJon said: Slightly off topic, but I would imagine all the cool waters off the SW Africa coast are suppressing tropical wave development in the eastern Atlantic, though the central Atlantic basin and north of the Carribean look warm enough to support an early season storm. That and all the dust coming off Africa is choking convection out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 Lock it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 20 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Lock it up Are you taking December with the outlook again this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Are you taking December with the outlook again this winter? I’m taking every month in winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 21 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Lock it up https://images.app.goo.gl/5wMwbessXKVRq1DA9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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