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The Near 80(s) Club, Version 4/13.


Bananashadow
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Welcome to spring when max temp forecasts can easily bust. Today, not so much.  There could be more than a GED high that reaches 80.  Tomorrow "north & east" can get shanked.  On one end of the spectrum, there is the GFS that says don't work be warmy and near the other end of the spectrum is the IC(eis)ON & NAM that live in Shankytown.   In general the mesoscale models are shankier as they have the warm front struggling to move northeast and get an onshore assist from a stronger offshore low.   So what is a 15 degree difference in next day max temp forecasts among friends?  Most of you guyz and gurls in PA & DE it should be no problem, or the shank will be so late in arriving you'll get in the 70s, if not near 80.

@Treckasec & @talonsmith & my way it may be a different story.  I have busted enough of these to bust another one again, I would lean toward a higher max temps in the shank zone only because if the front is not established in the morning, it has a harder time backing up during the day until it literally warms up and the less dense air makes it easier for the front to back up.  Kind of like winning the battle, but losing the war as I believe north & east will not be denied the afternoon shanking as it gets cooler as it progresses while @tombo82685 laughs as he basks longer in the April warmth.

EPS ensemble members have a range of 63 to 75 for max temps at PHL & 51 to 73 for max temps at Toms River on Tuesday.

After the Euro, I tried to range these from coolest to warmest

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I will go with 73 for a high at VAY and eat my crow tomorrow evening.

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Elevated marine shank cells tomorrow B) It's beginning to feel a lot like spring! At least we can enjoy the pleasant weather, though! My severe weather expectations for this year are to be better (IMBY) than last year, which can be too difficult to achieve... Right?

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at 8:00 pm, 76 at Central Park while it's 56 at LGA with 20mph NE wind (down 21 degrees the past hour), where's the backdoor

enjoyed the tremendous afternoon in Manhattan because that won't be the case tomorrow in the metro area, beats the sleet & upper 30's in the Bronx FRI afternoon

locally just a tick shy of 80 today

 

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I am officially in the marine shank zone as winds have turned northeast and 24 hours later MOS guidance is not much closer at VAY.  Not that much better elsewhere either.

The HRDPS has now assumed the mantle of the warmest model (a full 18 degreees warmer than the current 12km NAM) for today.  The ICeisON has also trended warmer.  I probably would still go 2/3rds of the way toward GFS MOS.  The crow is being cooler chilled as we post.

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Predicted 18z temp for PHL today:

HRDPS.................79

12km NAM .........61

3km NAM............68

9z HRRRRRRR.....67

WRF ARW............70

WRF ARW2..........65

WRF NMM...........70

RGEM...................69

ICeisON...............68

GFS.....................74

FV3 GFS.............75 

GGEM.................74

EC......................72

 

EPS max temp spread for PHL: 67 to 73

EPS max temp spread for Toms River is 56 to 68, VAY 64 to 75,  PTW 69 to 75 & ILG 71 to 76.

GEFS:

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On 4/8/2019 at 10:51 AM, Rainshadow said:

Guaranteed ugly April day for Long Island.  

I do recall looking longingly at PHL with set-ups like this when I was up in NYC. 

3km NAM remaining fairly steady.

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Yup, at 430 pm PHL is 72F and New York City/Central Park is 46F & a whole lot of mid 40s on Long Island.

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