Rainshadow Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Welcome to spring when max temp forecasts can easily bust. Today, not so much. There could be more than a GED high that reaches 80. Tomorrow "north & east" can get shanked. On one end of the spectrum, there is the GFS that says don't work be warmy and near the other end of the spectrum is the IC(eis)ON & NAM that live in Shankytown. In general the mesoscale models are shankier as they have the warm front struggling to move northeast and get an onshore assist from a stronger offshore low. So what is a 15 degree difference in next day max temp forecasts among friends? Most of you guyz and gurls in PA & DE it should be no problem, or the shank will be so late in arriving you'll get in the 70s, if not near 80. @Treckasec & @talonsmith & my way it may be a different story. I have busted enough of these to bust another one again, I would lean toward a higher max temps in the shank zone only because if the front is not established in the morning, it has a harder time backing up during the day until it literally warms up and the less dense air makes it easier for the front to back up. Kind of like winning the battle, but losing the war as I believe north & east will not be denied the afternoon shanking as it gets cooler as it progresses while @tombo82685 laughs as he basks longer in the April warmth. EPS ensemble members have a range of 63 to 75 for max temps at PHL & 51 to 73 for max temps at Toms River on Tuesday. After the Euro, I tried to range these from coolest to warmest I will go with 73 for a high at VAY and eat my crow tomorrow evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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