Rainshadow Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Welcome to spring when max temp forecasts can easily bust. Today, not so much. There could be more than a GED high that reaches 80. Tomorrow "north & east" can get shanked. On one end of the spectrum, there is the GFS that says don't work be warmy and near the other end of the spectrum is the IC(eis)ON & NAM that live in Shankytown. In general the mesoscale models are shankier as they have the warm front struggling to move northeast and get an onshore assist from a stronger offshore low. So what is a 15 degree difference in next day max temp forecasts among friends? Most of you guyz and gurls in PA & DE it should be no problem, or the shank will be so late in arriving you'll get in the 70s, if not near 80. @Treckasec & @talonsmith & my way it may be a different story. I have busted enough of these to bust another one again, I would lean toward a higher max temps in the shank zone only because if the front is not established in the morning, it has a harder time backing up during the day until it literally warms up and the less dense air makes it easier for the front to back up. Kind of like winning the battle, but losing the war as I believe north & east will not be denied the afternoon shanking as it gets cooler as it progresses while @tombo82685 laughs as he basks longer in the April warmth. EPS ensemble members have a range of 63 to 75 for max temps at PHL & 51 to 73 for max temps at Toms River on Tuesday. After the Euro, I tried to range these from coolest to warmest I will go with 73 for a high at VAY and eat my crow tomorrow evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Guaranteed ugly April day for Long Island. I do recall looking longingly at PHL with set-ups like this when I was up in NYC. 3km NAM remaining fairly steady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Elevated marine shank cells tomorrow It's beginning to feel a lot like spring! At least we can enjoy the pleasant weather, though! My severe weather expectations for this year are to be better (IMBY) than last year, which can be too difficult to achieve... Right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Not worth bumping the general thunderstorm thread since it's only a 20% chance, but it will be interesting to see if a garden variety storm or two roll through later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 It's 79 in Marshallton, DE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 I'm turning on the AC, it's hot outside... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 Pretty epic day out there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 8, 2019 Report Share Posted April 8, 2019 was pretty epic outside today, can't complain one bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 at 8:00 pm, 76 at Central Park while it's 56 at LGA with 20mph NE wind (down 21 degrees the past hour), where's the backdoor enjoyed the tremendous afternoon in Manhattan because that won't be the case tomorrow in the metro area, beats the sleet & upper 30's in the Bronx FRI afternoon locally just a tick shy of 80 today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Very nice day, albeit a bit cloudy at times. 76.6F for the high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 77.7 IMBY Perennials starting to pop out of the ground the past few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 81F for a high in Mount Laurel today. Marine shank is moving through NYC even slighter faster than the NAM, north and east looking shankier for Tuesday. EWR is 73F with a dew point of 48F. LGA is just 48F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 3km NAM has trended shankier the last two runs, even for "south and west". Oooh to be in Bridgeport tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 I am officially in the marine shank zone as winds have turned northeast and 24 hours later MOS guidance is not much closer at VAY. Not that much better elsewhere either. The HRDPS has now assumed the mantle of the warmest model (a full 18 degreees warmer than the current 12km NAM) for today. The ICeisON has also trended warmer. I probably would still go 2/3rds of the way toward GFS MOS. The crow is being cooler chilled as we post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Predicted 18z temp for PHL today: HRDPS.................79 12km NAM .........61 3km NAM............68 9z HRRRRRRR.....67 WRF ARW............70 WRF ARW2..........65 WRF NMM...........70 RGEM...................69 ICeisON...............68 GFS.....................74 FV3 GFS.............75 GGEM.................74 EC......................72 EPS max temp spread for PHL: 67 to 73 EPS max temp spread for Toms River is 56 to 68, VAY 64 to 75, PTW 69 to 75 & ILG 71 to 76. GEFS: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Hi of 85. DP topped out at 63. I could not stop sweating after a walk at lunch. Ready for normal temps tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 79.9 yesterday for NW Chesco. Bare trees overperform... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 A little too warm for my liking this early in April, but I won't complain loudly. Much, much better than 55 and a chilly drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 No words needed... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Hit 79.5 yesterday. 56 now down from a high of 63.5 at midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 full marine layer mode at the office in Piscataway, did have some sun earlier this morning that bumped the temp up to 54 however that was short lived as it's overcast & back down to 48 with a raw wind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 73 IMBY. You can feel/see the battle in the air and clouds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 9, 2019 Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2019 On 4/8/2019 at 10:51 AM, Rainshadow said: Guaranteed ugly April day for Long Island. I do recall looking longingly at PHL with set-ups like this when I was up in NYC. 3km NAM remaining fairly steady. Yup, at 430 pm PHL is 72F and New York City/Central Park is 46F & a whole lot of mid 40s on Long Island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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