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Weak El Nino Winter 2018-19 Vs Historical Weak El Ninos


Bananashadow
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Well this el nino by ssta but necessarily by atmospheric coupling did not follow historic standards for our area or the Conus in general.  While December started off on a more typical el nino script, the weak nino climo started going off the rails in January & completely flipped in February from what is the typical thermal distribution.  Feb 2019 is not at the ERSL site and the HPRCC probably uses current normals.  I used the same base period for December & January.

Let me pre-emptively say, let us not go down the climate change rabbit hole in this thread.  It is not my intent of starting this thread. I hope to add some local Philadelphia info in the days to come.  Prior to 1950 I used the fsu jma info to determine weak ninos and the cpc site after 1950.

dec_prcp.png.96e9aa67ab063d77c692ba3ee535cb6c.png

alljan_prcp.png.75df29e4062ef27b744c4ea7ba69141d.png

feb_prcp.png.1d3c04ebb7f637d1d45af3bfd56c73f7.png

winterwhole.png.fc7d133b089d57eadb4b901dc3a17754.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

This has been a weird nino, delayed but not denied. Wonder what kind of winter we would have had with this look in Nov/Dec.cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png.f10f5c96779746e7e69afea4710b5a8b.png

Last time I checked climate models were predicting a multiple nino winter (yes I know they love nino winters in the spring), so maybe we will find out next winter?

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Last time I checked climate models were predicting a multiple nino winter (yes I know they love nino winters in the spring), so maybe we will find out next winter?

Lots of enso uncertainty this time of year, but the subsurface looks like 2015, with a Kelvin wave lurking. May be playing a lot of golf this December.

subsurface2019_15.png

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29 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Needed a heavy early 50s weighting in the analog package.

 

I had '51-'52 as one of the six, but four of my were moderates and that (barring some sort of a miracle) made my outlook too snowy.   February failed to follow the recent script of coldness, really cost me again for yet another winter outlook.  11 (Jan) - 9 (Feb) - 2 (Dec) doesn't read that much off of climo for coldest month.  

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