Rainshadow Posted March 5, 2019 Report Share Posted March 5, 2019 Well this el nino by ssta but necessarily by atmospheric coupling did not follow historic standards for our area or the Conus in general. While December started off on a more typical el nino script, the weak nino climo started going off the rails in January & completely flipped in February from what is the typical thermal distribution. Feb 2019 is not at the ERSL site and the HPRCC probably uses current normals. I used the same base period for December & January. Let me pre-emptively say, let us not go down the climate change rabbit hole in this thread. It is not my intent of starting this thread. I hope to add some local Philadelphia info in the days to come. Prior to 1950 I used the fsu jma info to determine weak ninos and the cpc site after 1950. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 BTW the scaling is not the same in the first two maps. The historical ones are all -4 to +4, but I had to use a greater scaling for Dec 2018 & Jan 2019 to make either month look less like a red blob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 This has been a weird nino, delayed but not denied. Wonder what kind of winter we would have had with this look in Nov/Dec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chubbs said: This has been a weird nino, delayed but not denied. Wonder what kind of winter we would have had with this look in Nov/Dec. Last time I checked climate models were predicting a multiple nino winter (yes I know they love nino winters in the spring), so maybe we will find out next winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Last time I checked climate models were predicting a multiple nino winter (yes I know they love nino winters in the spring), so maybe we will find out next winter? Modoki here we come 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Modoki here we come Only El Nino we can have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 10 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Last time I checked climate models were predicting a multiple nino winter (yes I know they love nino winters in the spring), so maybe we will find out next winter? Lots of enso uncertainty this time of year, but the subsurface looks like 2015, with a Kelvin wave lurking. May be playing a lot of golf this December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Well it wasn't the least snowiest nor warmest weak el nino on record at PHL: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 All weak el ninos in PHL: We might not be done with the 17.1". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted March 6, 2019 Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 Needed a heavy early 50s weighting in the analog package. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Needed a heavy early 50s weighting in the analog package. I had '51-'52 as one of the six, but four of my were moderates and that (barring some sort of a miracle) made my outlook too snowy. February failed to follow the recent script of coldness, really cost me again for yet another winter outlook. 11 (Jan) - 9 (Feb) - 2 (Dec) doesn't read that much off of climo for coldest month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.