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February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).


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The CPC composite maps (D+8 and D+11) have been humdrum for several days, but here's an update.

The D+8 analog CPC composite map centered on February 1 depicts 90% BN temps in the Mid Atlantic and average precipitation.

The D+11 analog CPC composite map centered in February 4 depicts normal temps in the Mid Atlantic and 70% BN precipitation.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps are hinting at something around feb 2/3, but that is going to depend on the tpv orientation. Greater risk of suppression with that one so we will need the tpv to life out a bit 

Deep south could get two snows while you all get missed both north and south, 😢 in the next 10 days, 

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40 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Just please somebody kick me right in the stones. All I keep seeing is the south is due for another not just 1 storm but 2!  

At some point in these threads, please add some substance. If not, take the banter to, well.. the banter thread please. 

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Below is a lala land GEFS. The Atlantic looks pretty good, but the Pacific is a question mark. A big one is certainly possible with a little alteration to this set-up, but its going to depend on the Atlantic and Pacific cooperating in a way they haven't so far this year.

gef312.gif

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12z OP GFS continues to look interesting in the super LR. Looks like a relaxation, but then it wants to send the main trough Eastward by the 5th or so. Looks like some blocking’s showing up at the end of the run too. I truly think Feb is our March of last year. Think by 3rd week of Feb a lot of us are happy. /weenie

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Without precip maps, but how does that Day 9-10 event on the EURO look? Strong HP in place, but think low tracks too far N (and not enough cold air in place)

rain, there is no strong HP in place either. The high is well north of us

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Did the 12z Euro have anything for Friday? 

Yea I was going to start a thread for that, unless you want to. Euro had some light snow centered over m/d line that fizzles once to jersey. EPS more bullish on it. Could be a surprise little fluff hit. You would be snowing in like the teens

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I was going to start a thread for that, unless you want to. Euro had some light snow centered over m/d line that fizzles once to jersey. EPS more bullish on it. Could be a surprise little fluff hit. You would be snowing in like the teens

Done, started in the Short Range Discussion area since it's under 5 days out. 

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On 1/28/2019 at 11:31 AM, snowlurker said:

Looks like cutter-ville on each of the D+8 (centered on February 4) and D+11 (centered on February 7) CPC-made analog composite maps. No KU dates at all.

AN and very cutter-ish for the D+8 (centered on February 5) and D+11 (centered on February 8) CPC-made analog composite maps. As you might imagine, no KU dates.

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9 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

AN and very cutter-ish for the D+8 (centered on February 5) and D+11 (centered on February 😎 CPC-made analog composite maps. As you might imagine, no KU dates.

Lurker, you are doing well with this even if there are no KU(s). Were there any measurable days?

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