Chubbs 4,097 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 This got too amplified west of the Miss. That seems to be the trend. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: yeah not a pretty picture at 144, but there seems to be more energy still rounding the base of trough compared to GFS, so maybe a changeover is possible...idk. there is a lot more front end thump on the euro than 0z. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchg 1,597 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Jackpot BGM over 1.5 QPF all snow with temps in the teens and single digits. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Chubbs said: This got too amplified west of the Miss. That seems to be the trend. yea and I think thats also a by product of a stronger pna ridge in a poor spot. Need to root for weaker ridge which will help flatten out the flow more. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,600 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Chubbs said: This got too amplified west of the Miss. That seems to be the trend. Look at the difference in SE Canada too. You can see the better push southward and more confluence in the older run. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Seriously this is a much better run atleast for far nw crew.. Much colder temps with most of the precip being frozen/freezing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Heisenberg said: Look at the difference in SE Canada too. You can see the better push southward and more confluence in the older run. yea but your ridge is much stronger on the west coast which dumps more energy into the trough and really pops the se ridge ahead. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,600 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: there is a lot more front end thump on the euro than 0z. Oh, I didn’t even think there was any frozen for the city. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Baseball0618 677 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: yea and I think thats also a by product of a stronger pna ridge in a poor spot. Need to root for weaker ridge which will help flatten out the flow more. look at the ridge axis on my post on the previous page. the ridge was positively tilted at 0z and now it's more or closer to neutral. I think it's actually a step towards the positive if we can keep that ridge where it is but to tilt negatively it'll kick the trough east even more. Grasping at straws but it's not outside the realm w/ 5 days to go. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 fwiw, there is no anafront on the euro Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,600 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, tombo82685 said: fwiw, there is no anafront on the euro Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jrodd321 435 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 We have all week to track this guys. Just remember this time last week the GFS was amped and giving us a huge snowstorm for Sunday. Look where that wound up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Heisenberg said: Oh, I didn’t even think there was any frozen for the city. you get like .25+ of frozen qpf. I have to look at thermals to see how much is snow vs sleet/zr. I imagine there is a nasty warm layer somewhere Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,097 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Seriously this is a much better run atleast for far nw crew.. Much colder temps with most of the precip being frozen/freezing. This is a better run than last night. Without some changes, looks like we will have to work either the beginning or the end of the storm. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z euro 0z euro Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 philly gets 2-4 on this run of the euro, 1" falls with friday sysem Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 look at that thermal bndry, zammm. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dhen398 56 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: This one stings because we saw early model runs of what could have been if we had better timing and positioning. Not completely giving up, but my hopes are not high at this stage. Inland tracking storms tend to never trend the other way. I always felt the same but this winter has had a different theme so far for sure.. Lots of time for this to trend South and East. I’d rather not be in the bullseye at this stage ... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 673 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: fwiw, there is no anafront on the euro yeah, those dang p-type maps showed 2 6-hour panels of snow imby and it's probably around 1/2" worth of add'l accumulations Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,323 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: 12z euro 0z euro Includes Thursday night? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Squally 17 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hi All, my second post since being a member/lurker. As a weather freak, this forum has raised my weather IQ by leaps and bounds. Thanks to all. Should we be relying more on the ensembles at this point vs the op runs? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,156 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Rainshadow said: Includes Thursday night? yea, it has an inch for philly Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,323 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: look at that thermal bndry, zammm. This is more about algorithms and even more about my anti ice bias than anything else. Next six hours Euro accumulates 0.9" w/e and 0.9" ice as PHL temp goes from 52 to 29. This obviously ass u me (s) the ptype at the end of the six hour period is the one at the start of the six hour period. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jmister 225 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: look at that thermal bndry, zammm. Just me, or is the temperature legend on the right totally mislabeled? edit: just me. Either way, impressive gradient. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,323 Posted January 14, 2019 Report Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: yea, it has an inch for philly We may be seeing a 12z east / 00z west dance step for a bit. But given this is a bigger time system vs the weekend one, I would expect the big players lock in sooner. But, the thermal boundary being somewhere in the PHI/CTP will probably negate some of the big picture stability. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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