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The Everything Is On The Table Martin Luther King Jr Weekend Event


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Hey folks, long time no chat. How's it going? Since ZR is in the mix for most I just thought I'd pop in and share this paper with you all: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0

Wouldnt put my guard down NW of the fall line (ie @Qtown Snow), despite some sobering (for weenies like me) output from key models. Historically, our more significant ice storms occur with less t

1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

yeah not a pretty picture at 144, but there seems to be more energy still rounding the base of trough compared to GFS, so maybe a changeover is possible...idk. 

there is a lot more front end thump on the euro than 0z.

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Just now, Chubbs said:

This got too amplified west of the Miss. That seems to be the trend.

 

yea and I think thats also a by product of a stronger pna ridge in a poor spot. Need to root for weaker ridge which will help flatten out the flow more. 

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

Look at the difference in SE Canada too. You can see the better push southward and more confluence in the older run. 

yea but your ridge is much stronger on the west coast which dumps more energy into the trough and really pops the se ridge ahead. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yea and I think thats also a by product of a stronger pna ridge in a poor spot. Need to root for weaker ridge which will help flatten out the flow more. 

look at the ridge axis on my post on the previous page. the ridge was positively tilted at 0z and now it's more or closer to neutral.  I think it's actually a step towards the positive if we can keep that ridge where it is but to tilt negatively it'll kick the trough east even more. Grasping at straws but it's not outside the realm w/ 5 days to go. 

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Oh, I didn’t even think there was any frozen for the city. 

you get like .25+ of frozen qpf. I have to look at thermals to see how much is snow vs sleet/zr. I imagine there is a nasty warm layer somewhere

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Seriously this is a much better run atleast for far nw crew.. Much colder temps with most of the precip being frozen/freezing. 

This is a better run than last night. Without some changes, looks like we will have to work either the beginning or the end of the storm.

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13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

This one stings because we saw early model runs of what could have been if we had better timing and positioning. Not completely giving up, but my hopes are not high at this stage. Inland tracking storms tend to never trend the other way. 

I always felt the same but this winter has had a different theme so far for sure.. Lots of time for this to trend South and East.   I’d rather not be in the bullseye at this stage ... 

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

look at that thermal bndry, zammm. 

 

ecmwf_t2m_nj_25.png

This is more about algorithms and even more about my anti ice bias than anything else.  Next six hours Euro accumulates 0.9" w/e and 0.9" ice as PHL temp goes from 52 to 29.  This obviously ass u me  (s)  the ptype at the end of the six hour period is the one at the start of the six hour period. 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yea, it has an inch for philly 

We may be seeing a 12z east / 00z west dance step for a bit.  But given this is a bigger time system vs the weekend one, I would expect the big players lock in sooner.  But, the thermal boundary being somewhere in the PHI/CTP will probably negate some of the big picture stability.

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