6 inch Snowstorms - How Frequent are they??

[chescowx]

With not much going on winter weather wise I went back to attempt to quantify how unusually snowy against climo we are in this area and how spoiled the younger generation is regarding snow. What I will share below is for Chester County PA which does a little better regarding snowstorms than my hometown where I grew up Philadelphia PA. While I don't have the exact stats for PHL at my fingertips (someone here will come up with it) - I grew up in Philly during the 1970's and I believe there was not a snowstorm over 6" from 1967 until January 1978 - so from the time I was 3 yrs old till I was 14 there was not one storm over 6". On top of that imagine the horror of not any snow at all in a winter season - well that occurred both in philly and Chester County during the winter of 1972/73.  Now if that happened today in the age of global warming/climate change which now allows us to expect at least a couple significant (>6") snows every year - weenies everywhere would be complaining a blue streak. Just a warning those years are coming again as I am a big believer in all of this being cyclical - so brace yourselves!

Anyway here in Chester County we average a 6" snowstorm about 1.5 times each winter season. However, just like in philly the 1970's were not kind. In fact we had 5 winter seasons without a 6" snow event in Chester County those being 1970/71 - 1972/73 (no snow at all!!) - 1974/75 - 1976/77 and 1979/80. The 1940's and 1950's were also not snowy (despite what my Dad likes to tell me) - the 1940's experienced 4 winters without a 6" snow while the 1950's had 3 seasons without a significant snowstorm.

Of course this decade we are on pace for our snowiest decade on record...plus we have only had 1 season (2012/13) without a 6" snowstorm. If we keep that streak going we would match the 1901-1910's and 1960's with only 1 season without a significant snow. 

[Rainshadow]

On 12/27/2018 at 4:53 PM, chescopawxman said:

With not much going on winter weather wise I went back to attempt to quantify how unusually snowy against climo we are in this area and how spoiled the younger generation is regarding snow. What I will share below is for Chester County PA which does a little better regarding snowstorms than my hometown where I grew up Philadelphia PA. While I don't have the exact stats for PHL at my fingertips (someone here will come up with it) - I grew up in Philly during the 1970's and I believe there was not a snowstorm over 6" from 1967 until January 1978 - so from the time I was 3 yrs old till I was 14 there was not one storm over 6". On top of that imagine the horror of not any snow at all in a winter season - well that occurred both in philly and Chester County during the winter of 1972/73.  Now if that happened today in the age of global warming/climate change which now allows us to expect at least a couple significant (>6") snows every year - weenies everywhere would be complaining a blue streak. Just a warning those years are coming again as I am a big believer in all of this being cyclical - so brace yourselves!

Anyway here in Chester County we average a 6" snowstorm about 1.5 times each winter season. However, just like in philly the 1970's were not kind. In fact we had 5 winter seasons without a 6" snow event in Chester County those being 1970/71 - 1972/73 (no snow at all!!) - 1974/75 - 1976/77 and 1979/80. The 1940's and 1950's were also not snowy (despite what my Dad likes to tell me) - the 1940's experienced 4 winters without a 6" snow while the 1950's had 3 seasons without a significant snowstorm.

Of course this decade we are on pace for our snowiest decade on record...plus we have only had 1 season (2012/13) without a 6" snowstorm. If we keep that streak going we would match the 1901-1910's and 1960's with only 1 season without a significant snow. 

Paul,

My math may be off by 1or 2, but I think PHL itself has had 63 six inch or greater events since 1950-51 and 25 ten inch or greater events in that span.  68 winters?  It (heavier snows) is weighed more heavily to the recent past since the winter of 1995-6.

I thought that long gap was there too in the 60s to 70s, but found two events that shortened it.  There was a 6.0" event in February of 1974 (previous was Feb 1967) and a 6.9" in March of 1976.  Irony of ironies both those were strong la nina winters.

Happy New Year!

[chescowx]

42 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Paul,

My math may be off by 1or 2, but I think PHL itself has had 63 six inch or greater events since 1950-51 and 25 ten inch or greater events in that span.  68 winters?  It (heavier snows) is weighed more heavily to the recent past since the winter of 1995-6.

I thought that long gap was there too in the 60s to 70s, but found two events that shortened it.  There was a 6.0" event in February of 1974 (previous was Feb 1967) and a 6.9" in March of 1976.  Irony of ironies both those were strong la nina winters.

Happy New Year!

Thanks Tony!! great updates!!
Paul

[chescowx]

1 minute ago, chescopawxman said:

Thanks Tony!! great updates!!
Paul

However, either way you slice it - today's younger generation has no idea how rare "significant" snows can or should be for this area and as we at some point transition back to a more "normal" winter they will find that big snows are relatively rare...and will no doubt blame global warming or climate change for it....of course ignoring or using climate change as the reason for the recent snowy decades and support for the future non-snowy decades. In my opinion the beauty of climate change is - it is always the correct answer for any meteorological question we pose.....

[colonel_kurtz]

4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Paul,

My math may be off by 1or 2, but I think PHL itself has had 63 six inch or greater events since 1950-51 and 25 ten inch or greater events in that span.  68 winters?  It (heavier snows) is weighed more heavily to the recent past since the winter of 1995-6.

I thought that long gap was there too in the 60s to 70s, but found two events that shortened it.  There was a 6.0" event in February of 1974 (previous was Feb 1967) and a 6.9" in March of 1976.  Irony of ironies both those were strong la nina winters.

Happy New Year!

Have a pic of a young 8 yr old snow weenie / Flyers Fan during that FEB 1974 storm in NE Philly. Latter that same month PHL also recorded a 5.9" event.

As for Lower Bucks County neighboring Trenton recorded an 8" storm in FEB 1969, an 6" storm in MAR 1969, an 8" storm in DEC 1969, an 6" storm in JAN 1971, an 6" storm in FEB 1974 & a 6" storm in JAN 1977. 

[susqushawn]

14 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

However, either way you slice it - today's younger generation has no idea how rare "significant" snows can or should be for this area and as we at some point transition back to a more "normal" winter they will find that big snows are relatively rare...and will no doubt blame global warming or climate change for it....of course ignoring or using climate change as the reason for the recent snowy decades and support for the future non-snowy decades. In my opinion the beauty of climate change is - it is always the correct answer for any meteorological question we pose.....

Growing up in the 80's early 90's, I absolutely appreciate the relatively numerous 6"+ snowfalls the past decade.  In hindsight, pre-1993 sucked, although as a kid, with no other perspective, it was all I knew and good enough for me.  1993, despite a change to rain, was my first experience of a big storm, 94 cemented my fascination, 96 put me over the top.  We have been very fortunate.