Mitchg Posted October 21, 2018 Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/21/2018 at 9:11 AM, Qtown Snow said: A few members do support this but take the accumulating snow through the Apps. Half of the EPS look OTS. 06Z GFS had the same idea as the op EC but was higher with dewpoints and thus rain. Dewpoints are around 20 to start on the OP EC so snow through Tony's favorite dynamical cooling is possible. Dewpoints of 30 in advance won't cut it. That was a big key in Oct 2011. Though almost better if this one went inland given October snowstorms generally yield poor winters along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted October 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 21, 2018 Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Mitchg said: NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault. First NAO- in quite a while hopefully a sign of things to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted October 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 Consensus growing on a storm. CMC with a 968 low. I don't see how it is snow along 95 and coastal plain. More interesting for higher elevations/ inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 21, 2018 Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, Chubbs said: 2 hours ago, Mitchg said: NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault. Those are terrible NAO skill scores. Pretty much means anything can happen next weekend in terms of track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 21, 2018 Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Those are terrible NAO skill scores. Pretty much means anything can happen next weekend in terms of track. If I had to WAG this one is going to trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 21, 2018 Report Share Posted October 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Mitchg said: Consensus growing on a storm. CMC with a 968 low. I don't see how it is snow along 95 and coastal plain. More interesting for higher elevations/ inland areas. 24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: If I had to WAG this one is going to trend west. Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding. Interestingly, it's the remnants, in one form or another, of Hurricane Willa that's nearing the western shores of Mexico right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Locking up last years thread and starting. New: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Once we get inside a few days, we can create a short range thread. Anyhow, next storm looks legit. Too bad this isn’t December! Good storm to shake off the rust for analysis models, other guidance and trends. I guess we can’t rule out some elevation snows for interior sections. Big time trough in play, remnant hurricane energy. Could see this being some type of hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Have a somewhat classic block on the Atlantic side of things. The 50/50 low is what really buckles the flow. Brief PNA spike. Man, if this was December , watch out coastal sections. 2 shortwaves, 1 being the remnants of the east pac hurricane , and the other being a northern stream disturbance diving in associated with the full latitude trough. Pattern screams big storm, with some amp’d up phases solutions being thrown in. Some spread in guidance, TBE, with some swings and misses to app runners in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Have a somewhat classic block on the Atlantic side of things. The 50/50 pow is what really buckles the flow. Brief PNA spike. Man, of this was December , watch out coastal sections. 2 shortwaves, 1 being the remnants of the east pac hurricane , and the other being a northern stream disturbance diving in associated with the full latitude trough. Pattern screams big storm, with some amp’d up phases solutions being thrown in. Some spread in guidance, TBE, with some swings and misses to app runners in the mix. We will see more of these kinds of maps this winter methinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/ Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 hours ago, irishbri74 said: For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/ Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution. Yeah if this was winter the board would be hoppin. Euro, GEM+ probably ukie with heavy interior snowstorms overnight. Wonder if Mitch has a spare bedroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Yeah I'd be ok with my chances if this was Jan/Feb. Late phase but what a lovely look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 hours ago, irishbri74 said: For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/ Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution. Come January you won't have to worry about the bridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 12 hours ago, Chubbs said: Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding. When we went to Cape May earlier this month we could still see some of the beach damage just from the onshore flow event in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 51 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Come January you won't have to worry about the bridge: Hope you are working on your putting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 22 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Hope you are working on your putting. I have to convert back from Bermuda to bent grass this week, so I will let you know. Meanwhile the GEFS is just playing follow the leader: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Aside from the GFS being farther offshore, this is not looking too good for the shore this weekend. Alot of coast hugging solutions. Speedwise it is faster than yesterday would make Sunday salvageable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 4 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Aside from the GFS being farther offshore, this is not looking too good for the shore this weekend. Alot of coast hugging solutions. Speedwise it is faster than yesterday would make Sunday salvageable at this point. Faster meaning less rain and flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, cbelke said: Faster meaning less rain and flooding? faster as in comes in earlier Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted October 22, 2018 Report Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just now, tombo82685 said: faster as in comes in earlier Saturday Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted October 23, 2018 Report Share Posted October 23, 2018 euro 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 There is a signal on the eps around nov 13-15th for possibly first flakes of the season, at least on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts