Feb 701 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 I will take the under week two and three. Week two is +2. Week Three +1. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 Canadian Weeklies starting on 12/10: Temperatures Week 1.............below Week 2.............above Weeks 3 & 4....near normal Pcpn Weeks 1 thru 4 all near normal. Four week aggregate average has some above normal spots in Mt. Holly CWA. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 10, 2018 Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 CFS2 Monday Weeklies Week 1............Pacific (Eastern) Trof dominated Week 2............Eastern Pacific Trof & Hudson Bay Ridge (PV toward pole) Weeks 3 & 4....retrogression of pattern Aleutian trof, west coast ridge & se trof Weeks 5 & 6....Northward relaxation (or washing out of differences?). NOAM/Conus trof more in central part and hints of Atlantic and/or SE ridge Week 1 verification: Week 1.....0F (+1F).....under Actual -5F, not even close. Temperatures (Previous Monday in Parenthesis) Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?) Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...under Week 3....+3F (+2F)....under (Christmas week) Week 4...+3F (+3F)....under Week 5....+2F (+2F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....+1F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn Week 1........dry Week 2........dry Week 3........dry Week 4........wet Week 5........normal (TTidbits) Week 6........wet (TTidbits) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2018 week 1 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from OR week 2 neutral pna/+nao/-ao/neutral epo. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/-pna. Gradient look to the pattern with a bit of se ridge as cold dump is to our west. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR week 4 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Still a bit of a se ridge look but not as strong as week 3. Main cold dump in the plains week 5 -enao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 6 +epo/+pna/-ao/-enao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 week 1 -1 week 2 +4 week 3 +2 week 4 +1 week 5 +1 week 6 -1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 week 1 neutral pna/+epo/+nao/+ao. Pacific flow junk, normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 2 -enao/-epo/-pna/-ao. SE ridge look, but cold be colder under the higher hgts due to epo cold press. Gradient like, Abv normal hgts, flow from OR week 3 -enao/-ao/-pna/+epo. Looks like some pacific junk airmass getting involved again but tpv is displaced decently further south so looks gradient like. ABv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from OR week 4 neutral epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/ Nice aleutian trough, trough in the east. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 5 -nao/+pna/-ao/neutral epo. Nice aleutian trough, trough in the east, lots of high lat blocking. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada week 6 -epo/-ao/-enao/+pna. Big Aleutian trough, well below normal hgts in the east. flow from Canada 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 week 1 +3 week 2 +1 week 3 +5 week 4 +1 week 5 0 week 6 -1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchg 1,601 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Continue to punt things backward quite a bit. These weeklies tend to back up the strat suggesting mid Jan before a return to cold. First half of Jan looks wet with cutter risks, fairly good my way though. Warming doesn't start till around the 23rd add three weeks gets us 1/14. All I want for Christmas is a SSW . Of the course the fear is going from a few cutters with rain to cold and dry. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 12 hours ago, Mitchg said: Continue to punt things backward quite a bit. These weeklies tend to back up the strat suggesting mid Jan before a return to cold. First half of Jan looks wet with cutter risks, fairly good my way though. Warming doesn't start till around the 23rd add three weeks gets us 1/14. All I want for Christmas is a SSW . Of the course the fear is going from a few cutters with rain to cold and dry. According to the GEFS you already have had a dozen SSW(s). MJO comes around in January regardless. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 Canadian Weeklies starting on 12/17: Temperatures Weeks 1 thru 4............near normal. Week 2 has warmest look, Week 3 has coldest look. Pcpn Week 1.......below (ha) Weeks 2 thru 4....near normal. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 CFS2 Monday Weeklies Week 1............Thru Alaska & SE Trof/ +EPO/+NAO Week 2............Western NOAM Trof / Eastern NOAM Ridge Week 3............Thru Alaska Trof / SE Ridge Weeks 4-6.......Pattern reversal, western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof. Week 4 looks colder than it looked as Week 5 a week ago. MJO or SSW or both. Week 1 verification: Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?) Actual +2F, two consecutive bad 1st weeks for the CFS2. Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis) Week 1.....+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw again?) Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...late week induced over (Christmas week) Week 3....+7F (+3F)....under (He thinks this will be more week 2.5-3.5) Week 4....+2F (+2F)....under Week 5....-4F (+1F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....-5F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn Week 1........wet (good choice) Week 2........dry Week 3........normal Week 4........wet Week 5........dry (TTidbits) Week 6........dry (TTidbits) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 Apologies if you read these too quickly. I had to paste the previous outlooks in before editing on the tablet. Don't ask why NOAM gets corrected all of the time. These are the new outlooks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 week 1 +epo/-enao/neutral pna/neutral ao. normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 2 -enao/neutral ao/-pna/+epo. way abv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from arizona week 3 neutral ao/-enao/+pna/+epo. Normal hgts. Big Aleutian trough, trough in the east, still a bit of a WAR just offshore. normal hgts, flow from Canadian border week 4 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao. Big aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts, flow from canada week 5 +pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Big aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts. flow from canada week 6 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao. big Aleutian torugh. trough in the east, below normal hgts. Flow from canada Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 leave this here for Gigi, last couple days of January into start of feb. Pretty much what weeks 3-6 look like Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: leave this here for Gigi, last couple days of January into start of feb. Pretty much what weeks 3-6 look like Looks great but I've yet to see any of the models showing a trough off Japan. I'm always nervous when I see a ridge in the west/trough in the east for extended periods without it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Looks great but I've yet to see any of the models showing a trough off Japan. I'm always nervous when I see a ridge in the west/trough in the east for extended periods without it. why would you want a trough off japan? That would put a ridge into the Aleutians which would lead to a -pna look Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted December 17, 2018 Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: why would you want a trough off japan? That would put a ridge into the Aleutians which would lead to a -pna look It doesn't. It generally corresponds to a trough off the east coast. It was there all winter 13/14. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: It doesn't. It generally corresponds to a trough off the east coast. It was there all winter 13/14. 2013/14 has an aleutian trough too. Generally in my eyes if you have a big trough just off Japan looking at wavelengths that would put a trough right into the west coast like next week Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 week 1 +3 week 2 +3 week 3 +2 week 4 -1 week 5 -4 week 6 -1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 18, 2018 Report Share Posted December 18, 2018 13 hours ago, tombo82685 said: leave this here for Gigi, last couple days of January into start of feb. Pretty much what weeks 3-6 look like I am ready for it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 week 1 -pna/-epo/-enao/+ao. Se ridge, flow from northern tx above normal hgts week 2 +pna/-enao/+ao/+epo. Mean trough in the east, Aleutian trough, so look for trough in the east to trend better. abv normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. big aleutian trough, trough in the east, below normal hgts. flow from canada week 4 -nao/+epo/+pna/-ao. big aleutian trough, trough in the east. way below normal hgts, flow from canada week 5 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts. flow from canada week 6 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao. Aleutian trough, trough in the east. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 week 1 +2 week 2 0 week 3 0 week 4 -1 week 5 -2 week 6 -2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 Canadian Weeklies starting on 12/24: Temperatures Weeks 1 thru 4............near normal. Weeks 1 & 3 have warmest looks. Canadian remains more zonal across the Pacific. Pcpn Weeks 1 thru 4....near normal. Wet spots weeks 1 & 2. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 12/17 Week 1............Thru Alaska & SE Trof/ +EPO/+NAO Week 2............Western NOAM Trof / Eastern NOAM Ridge Week 3............Thru Alaska Trof / SE Ridge Weeks 4-6.......Pattern reversal, western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof. Week 4 looks colder than it looked as Week 5 a week ago. MJO or SSW or both. Week 1 verification: Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?) Actual +2F, two consecutive bad 1st weeks for the CFS2. Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis) Week 1.....+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw again?) Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...late week induced over (Christmas week) Week 3....+7F (+3F)....under (He thinks this will be more week 2.5-3.5) Week 4....+2F (+2F)....under Week 5....-4F (+1F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....-5F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn Week 1........wet (good choice) Week 2........dry Week 3........normal Week 4........wet Week 5........dry (TTidbits) Week 6........dry (TTidbits) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 23 hours ago, Rainshadow said: CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 12/24 Week 1............SE Ridge Dominated Week 2............-NAO / +PNA Week 3............NAO retrogression, High heights Canada, Pacific +EPO Weeks 4-6.......Western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof. Same weeks as last week, -NAO also. Week 1 verification: Week 1 ,+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?) Actual +8F. Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis) Week 1.....+4F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw vs weekend drop-off) Week 2.....-3F (+7F)....over. Lol 10F change. Too volatile think closer to 0F. Week 3....+3F (+2F)....under Week 4....+2F (-4F)....under Week 5....-2F (-5F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....-3F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn Week 1........wet (good choice) Week 2........dry (bad choice) Week 3........normal Week 4........normal Week 5........dry (TTidbits) Week 6........dry (TTidbits) Well CFS2 kicks can and not very consistent overall. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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