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CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread


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snow weenies after seeing weeklies 

Great! They were money last year.....monopoly money that is. On a different note,  can't help but like how the drought pattern has folded and cold shots galore are headed our way. All coming toge

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies
 

Week 1............Pacific (Eastern) Trof dominated

Week 2............Eastern Pacific Trof & Hudson Bay Ridge (PV toward pole)

Weeks 3 & 4....retrogression of pattern Aleutian trof, west coast ridge & se trof

Weeks 5 & 6....Northward relaxation (or washing out of differences?). NOAM/Conus trof more in central part and hints of Atlantic and/or SE ridge

 

Week 1 verification:  Week 1.....0F (+1F).....under    Actual -5F, not even close.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?)

Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...under

Week 3....+3F (+2F)....under (Christmas week)

 Week 4...+3F  (+3F)....under

Week 5....+2F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+1F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........dry

Week 3........dry

Week 4........wet

Week 5........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6........wet (TTidbits)

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week 1 +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from OR

week 2 neutral pna/+nao/-ao/neutral epo. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR

week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/-pna. Gradient look to the pattern with a bit of se ridge as cold dump is to our west. Abv normal hgts, flow from OR

week 4 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Still a bit of a se ridge look but not as strong as week 3. Main cold dump in the plains 

week 5 -enao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 6 +epo/+pna/-ao/-enao. Strong Aleutian trough, mean trough in the east. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

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week 1 neutral pna/+epo/+nao/+ao. Pacific flow junk, normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 2 -enao/-epo/-pna/-ao. SE ridge look, but cold be colder under the higher hgts due to epo cold press. Gradient like, Abv normal hgts, flow from OR

week 3 -enao/-ao/-pna/+epo. Looks like some pacific junk airmass getting involved again but tpv is displaced decently further south so looks gradient like. ABv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from OR

week 4 neutral epo/+pna/-enao/-ao/ Nice aleutian trough, trough in the east. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 5 -nao/+pna/-ao/neutral epo. Nice aleutian trough, trough in the east, lots of high lat blocking. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

week 6 -epo/-ao/-enao/+pna. Big Aleutian trough, well below normal hgts in the east. flow from Canada

 

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Continue to punt things backward quite a bit. These weeklies tend to back up the strat suggesting mid Jan before a return to cold. First half of Jan looks wet with cutter risks, fairly good my way though. Warming doesn't start till around the 23rd add three weeks gets us 1/14. All I want for Christmas is a SSW :abomsnow:.  Of the course the fear is going from a few cutters with rain to cold and dry. 

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12 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Continue to punt things backward quite a bit. These weeklies tend to back up the strat suggesting mid Jan before a return to cold. First half of Jan looks wet with cutter risks, fairly good my way though. Warming doesn't start till around the 23rd add three weeks gets us 1/14. All I want for Christmas is a SSW :abomsnow:.  Of the course the fear is going from a few cutters with rain to cold and dry. 

According to the GEFS you already have had a dozen SSW(s).  :shiver-1::too-cold::shivering:

MJO comes around in January regardless. 

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies
 

Week 1............Thru Alaska & SE Trof/ +EPO/+NAO

Week 2............Western NOAM Trof / Eastern NOAM Ridge

Week 3............Thru Alaska Trof / SE Ridge

Weeks 4-6.......Pattern reversal, western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof.  Week 4 looks colder than it looked as Week 5 a week ago. MJO or SSW or both.

 

Week 1 verification:  Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?)  Actual +2F, two consecutive bad 1st weeks for the CFS2.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw again?)

Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...late week induced over (Christmas week)

Week 3....+7F (+3F)....under (He thinks this will be more week 2.5-3.5)

Week 4....+2F  (+2F)....under

Week 5....-4F (+1F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....-5F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........wet (good choice)

Week 2........dry

Week 3........normal

Week 4........wet

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

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week 1 +epo/-enao/neutral pna/neutral ao. normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 2 -enao/neutral ao/-pna/+epo. way abv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from arizona

week 3 neutral ao/-enao/+pna/+epo. Normal hgts. Big Aleutian trough, trough in the east, still a bit of a WAR just offshore. normal hgts, flow from Canadian border

week 4 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao. Big aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts, flow from canada

week 5 +pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Big aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts. flow from canada

week 6 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao. big Aleutian torugh. trough in the east, below normal hgts. Flow from canada

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

leave this here for Gigi, last couple days of January into start of feb. Pretty much what weeks 3-6 look like

eps_z500a_168h_nh_12.png

Looks great but I've yet to see any of the models showing a trough off Japan. I'm always nervous when I see a ridge in the west/trough in the east for extended periods without it. 

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6 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Looks great but I've yet to see any of the models showing a trough off Japan. I'm always nervous when I see a ridge in the west/trough in the east for extended periods without it. 

why would you want a trough off japan? That would put a ridge into the Aleutians which would lead to a -pna look

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

why would you want a trough off japan? That would put a ridge into the Aleutians which would lead to a -pna look

It doesn't.  It generally corresponds to a trough off the east coast. It was there all winter 13/14. 

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5 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

It doesn't.  It generally corresponds to a trough off the east coast. It was there all winter 13/14. 

2013/14 has an aleutian trough too. Generally in my eyes if you have a big trough just off Japan looking at wavelengths that would put a trough right into the west coast like next week

Composite Plot

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week 1 -pna/-epo/-enao/+ao. Se ridge, flow from northern tx above normal hgts

week 2 +pna/-enao/+ao/+epo. Mean trough in the east, Aleutian trough, so look for trough in the east to trend better. abv normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. big aleutian trough, trough in the east, below normal hgts. flow from canada

week 4 -nao/+epo/+pna/-ao. big aleutian trough, trough in the east. way below normal hgts, flow from canada

week 5 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Aleutian trough, trough in the east. Way below normal hgts. flow from canada

week 6 -nao/+pna/-epo/-ao. Aleutian trough, trough in the east. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 12/17
 

Week 1............Thru Alaska & SE Trof/ +EPO/+NAO

Week 2............Western NOAM Trof / Eastern NOAM Ridge

Week 3............Thru Alaska Trof / SE Ridge

Weeks 4-6.......Pattern reversal, western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof.  Week 4 looks colder than it looked as Week 5 a week ago. MJO or SSW or both.

 

Week 1 verification:  Week 1.....-2F (-2F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?)  Actual +2F, two consecutive bad 1st weeks for the CFS2.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw again?)

Week 2.....+5F (+3F)...late week induced over (Christmas week)

Week 3....+7F (+3F)....under (He thinks this will be more week 2.5-3.5)

Week 4....+2F  (+2F)....under

Week 5....-4F (+1F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....-5F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........wet (good choice)

Week 2........dry

Week 3........normal

Week 4........wet

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 12/24
 

Week 1............SE Ridge Dominated

Week 2............-NAO / +PNA

Week 3............NAO retrogression, High heights Canada, Pacific +EPO

Weeks 4-6.......Western NOAM Ridge / Eastern NOAM Trof.  Same weeks as last week, -NAO also.

 

Week 1 verification:  Week 1 ,+5F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw?)  Actual +8F.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+4F (+5F).....over (late week warm sector ftw  vs weekend drop-off)

Week 2.....-3F (+7F)....over. Lol 10F change. Too volatile think closer to 0F.

Week 3....+3F (+2F)....under 

Week 4....+2F  (-4F)....under

Week 5....-2F (-5F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....-3F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........wet (good choice)

Week 2........dry (bad choice)

Week 3........normal

Week 4........normal

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

Well CFS2 kicks can and not very consistent overall.

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