tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Wanted to make a new thread for this since the other was way to long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 11 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Wanted to make a new thread for this since the other was way to long. I can't find the older thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I can't find the older thread. With the way the euro weeklies looked Monday night maybe Tom deleted it or the Russians hacked us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 41 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I can't find the older thread. That’s cause I deleted it. What do you need Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That’s cause I deleted it. What do you need Lol the thread. I could still do a spreadsheet on the year. Chances are I wont, but I do seriously need (if possible) the last CFS2 weekly post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Lol the thread. I could still do a spreadsheet on the year. Chances are I wont, but I do seriously need (if possible) the last CFS2 weekly post. well thats adios. I thought I read a while back you really don't even do a sheet for the weeklies once it gets past week 3 or 4 because it's always smoothed over week 1 -3 week 2 +1 week 3 0 week 4 +1 week 5 +3 week 6 +2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: well thats adios. I thought I read a while back you really don't even do a sheet for the weeklies once it gets past week 3 or 4 because it's always smoothed over week 1 -3 week 2 +1 week 3 0 week 4 +1 week 5 +3 week 6 +2 Yeah it is kind of lame past week 2 with raw numbers. That is ok, one less spread sheet to maintain and I did internally stopped doing it in July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Weeklies were awful from mid month on. 2002-2003 is my main analog still, mid to late December looks rough but hopefully the weeklies are underoing the mjo by years end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 week 1 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Mean trough in the east, below normal hgts, flow from yukon week 2 +epo/-enao/neutral pna/+ao. Abv normal hgts, tpv between siberia and AK. Flow from OR week 3 -nao/+pna/+ao/+epo. tpv over siberia now, allows hgts to raise on west coast. flow from OR, abv normal hgts. week 4 +epo/+pna/+ao/+nao. Aleutain trough, should be more signal of eastern trough. Normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 5 +epo/-ao/+pna/+nao. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts in the east now, flow from Canada week 6 -epo/+pna/-ao/-enao. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts, flow from Canada 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 week 1 -4 week 2 -1 week 3 +1 week 4 0 week 5 -1 week 6 -1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: week 1 -4 week 2 -1 week 3 +1 week 4 0 week 5 -1 week 6 -1 Lol and 3 days ago weenies we’re canceling December because of this same model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Canadian Weeklies starting on 12/3: Temperatures Weeks 1 & 2....below Weeks 3 & 4....near normal Pcpn Weeks 1 thru 4 all near normal. Some drier spots around PHL weeks 1 & 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 CFS2 Monday Weeklies Week 1....Rex Block West Coast / East Coast Trof Week 2....Eastern Pacific Trof, Rockies Centric Ridge, -NAO Weeks 3 & 4....Same theme, more amplitude, some below normal heights SE. +NAO til the end. Weeks 5 & 6....Retrograding pattern, Aleutian Trof, West Coast Ridge Week 6. Temperatures (Previous Monday in Parenthesis) Week 1.....0F (+1F).....under Week 2....-2F (0F).......over. I thought that was based on a hit, but week 2 is dry, so makes no consistency sense. Week 3....+3F (+1F)....over Week 4...+2F (+3F)....under (Christmas Week) Week 5....+3F (+2F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....+2F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn Week 1........dry Week 2........dry (ok) Week 3........normal Week 4........wet Week 5........normal (TTidbits) Week 6........dry (TTidbits) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 week 1 +pna/-epo/+ao/-enao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada week 2 -pna/+ao/+nao/+epo. abv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from TX Week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. normal hgts, below normal just to our west. Mean trough over indy. flow from Canada week 4 +pna/-epo/+nao/-ao. Big Aleutian trough as the pv that retrograse there from week 2 goes to there. Below normal hgts, flow from canada week 5 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao. Big Aleutian trough. normal hgts, below just to our west. Flow from US/canada border week 6 +pna/---epo/-------------ao/-enao. WAAAAYYYYYYY below normal hgts. I've never seen a week 6 outlook show that much confidence. I wonder if they are sniffing out some sort SSW. Flow is from the Yukon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Thats week 6, I've never seen that, usually it's a smoothed look 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here is the progression: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 look at tpv get down to Hudson bay lol. If that happens, gigi would be really happy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: look at tpv get down to Hudson bay lol. If that happens, gigi would be really happy Tony on New Years Eve?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 week 1 -5 week 2 0 week 3 +2 week 4 0 week 5 0 week 6 -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 I suspect weeks 3 through 6 would be colder if that 500 pattern verified. As good as possibile with a quick recovery from the mid month thaw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 hours ago, tombo82685 said: week 1 -5 week 2 0 week 3 +2 week 4 0 week 5 0 week 6 -3 -3 week 6 is almost the equivalent of -20 week 1. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Rainshadow said: -3 week 6 is almost the equivalent of -20 week 1. Do you like that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Do you like that? I'll be in Florida, enjoying the low relative humidity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 week 1 neutral pna/+ao/+epo/+nao. Below normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 2 neutral nao/-ao/+epo/-pna. Se ridge look, above normal hgts, flow from southwest US week 3 +pna/-ao/-enao/neutral epo. Still some residual se ridge with mean trough building over miss river. Aleutian trough, so weeklies might be off on placement of that trough, would think more on east coast Abv normal hgts, flow from pac nw week 4 +ao/-enao/ neutral epo/+pna. Aleutian trough, trough over the east. Flow from Canada week 5 +pna/-ao/-enao/-epo. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts in the east. Flow from Canada week 6 -ao/-epo/-enao/+pna. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts, flow from canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 week 1 -3 week 2 +4 week 3 +2 week 4 0 week 5 -1 week 6 -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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