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Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion


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25 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

The bigger picture here is we can still benefit from the weaker PV and other favorable tropospheric forcings.  

Agreed, ssw or not, displaced pv will ge the job done for increasing high lat blocking

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Confusing CFS graphic showing forecast OLR and MJO (red lines) along the equator. CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of strong dateline convection in Jan and Feb as mjo fades/slows. Just an uncertain model prog but something to keep an eye on.

 

cfsmjo.png

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30 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

I take it that would not favor snow/cold pattern  Jan /Feb when the mjo fades and have strong convention as well? I know mjo going into COD soon from what I saw. 

Dateline convection would be good for snow.  It would pump up a ridge east of it in the Pacific.

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From what I'm seeing the relaxation period is probably going to be a good 2 weeks before we can get some meaningful cold back into the region. I can see a chance of something right around Christmas depending on how the pacific reorients itself. Better chance is inbetween Christmas and new years as the mjo starts to work towards more favorable period. Reason I'm thinking maybe a bit earlier like around 23-25th could be something strat related that gets the high latitude blocking going. If we get a -epo formation going to have to watch how it materializes in terms of does it dump the cold in the west first then comes east. If so, then you will probably get a parade of storms, well cutters with each one that brings the boundary east. Final one which may be around Christmas may start to get the ball rolling again. 

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Pretty good agreement right now between ensembles after maybe a cutter look around 23rd we return to a below normal regime by Christmas. Hopefully that holds, warm Christmas's are no bueno. 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

out in Gigi land, but man do the 18z gefs look tasty once past dec 23rd

LaLa GEFS favoring strat PV displacement towards Scandinavia which would send arctic air our way around xmas.

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

lala GEPS similar to GEFS

 

Yea you can see it on the wave 1/2 hits, good signal. Looks like a solid displacement event, not saying any signal for wave 2 hit that may induce any ssw.  

waves.gif

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea you can see it on the wave 1/2 hits, good signal. Looks like a solid displacement event, not saying any signal for wave 2 hit that may induce any ssw. 

GEFS and GEPS are both starting to show a Troposphere PV split. With ridging developing in Alaska and the Arctic ocean.  06 GEFS below

f360.gif

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With whats going on in the stratosphere we probably will get back into the cold a bit earlier than what MJO forcing would otherwise dictate. MJO forcing to me looks to be favorable after Christmas. The stratosphere should start increasing high latitude blocking which help start to transport cold south right around Christmas time. Hoping/thinking we start tracking snow threats from 24th onward. 

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

With whats going on in the stratosphere we probably will get back into the cold a bit earlier than what MJO forcing would otherwise dictate. MJO forcing to me looks to be favorable after Christmas. The stratosphere should start increasing high latitude blocking which help start to transport cold south right around Christmas time. Hoping/thinking we start tracking snow threats from 24th onward. 

There was very little can kicking for the 12th, so we will see if this holds going backward.

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

There was very little can kicking for the 12th, so we will see if this holds going backward.

I think the better cold comes after Christmas towards New years, but I think we will start getting cold enough for snow threats to start around Christmas. 

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