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This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

Do you like that?

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

That's got storm written all over it.  

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On 11/8/2018 at 7:27 AM, tombo82685 said:

If I was to draw what I think the mjo will do, this is my best guess right now. The Canadian MJO outlook matches what I'm thinking best

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

While I've had my fair share of failure outlooks and I've taken ownership of them. You also gotta highlight your success's and I think this one is pretty good, though I may be off on the amplitude. 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30

ecmwf_t2m_anom_ma_26.png

Yet another ridge slowing on approach, look at this progression

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh144_trend.gif

ecmwf_T850_us_fh144_trend (1).gif

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30

ecmwf_t2m_anom_ma_26.png

I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die.  :(

The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized.  Heck the lowest thickness was 541.  Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. 

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die.  :(

The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized.  Heck the lowest thickness was 541.  Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. 

I enjoy the cold just like you do

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just keeps getting better. Granted the high for the day would be upper 30s to near 40 in the city right after midnight, but what a thing of beauty for the day. Daytime highs stuck in the 20s. Figs roasting on frozen tundra

thursday AM

ecmwf_t2min_philadelphia_23.png.df48c8ad15e84e6f62bf064bcd3df929.png

Thanksgiving dinner time

ecmwf_t2max_philadelphia_24.png.556c8bba23e41a5d1f9d26da86aca13d.png

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Tombo' s unbridled exuberance for Barney cold on Thanksgiving will be further fueled by the GFS jumping on board.

Models have been showing sharp cold like this in the mid-range then scaled back as Barney gets denied entry by border patrol.  This Tuesday is an example, more of a glancing blow

gfs_T850_eus_fh132_trend.gif

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