Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term. Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7? Yup. That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term. Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7? Yup. That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning. Do you like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term. Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7? Yup. That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning. That's got storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Way out in time but seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Way out in time but seriously looks like a "down and out" route vs. up the coast, but it's probably better off this early in the season considering climo and ocean temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z GEFS for the same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Loving the 7/8/1 looking pretty likely. Cold snowy December looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 The block to end all blocks. Watch the lows repeatedly hit the wall and retrograde back. If that block comes to fruition, WOW. That will be a flow buckler and help keep systems under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/8/2018 at 7:27 AM, tombo82685 said: If I was to draw what I think the mjo will do, this is my best guess right now. The Canadian MJO outlook matches what I'm thinking best While I've had my fair share of failure outlooks and I've taken ownership of them. You also gotta highlight your success's and I think this one is pretty good, though I may be off on the amplitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 So Tom, I guess what you're saying is to sharpen and oil up my snow shovels and buy some barrels of salt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowlurker said: So Tom, I guess what you're saying is to sharpen and oil up my snow shovels and buy some barrels of salt? if that EPS pattern comes true, thats a snow storm pattern with lows tracking under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: if that EPS pattern comes true, thats a snow storm pattern with lows tracking under us. So glad you didn’t have to ban yourself, especially when you talk dirty like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30 Yet another ridge slowing on approach, look at this progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30 I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die. The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized. Heck the lowest thickness was 541. Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die. The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized. Heck the lowest thickness was 541. Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. I enjoy the cold just like you do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Yet another ridge slowing on approach, look at this progression eps caved to that Idea too. Man I hope that is right. Be awesome to have a bitter thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 Gigi when seeing eps a day and a half ago then the next run of the eps, when the 50s get cut back a little Then today's run, when the 50s get dwindled even further 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Gigi when seeing eps a day and a half ago I miss the official Gigi NWS posts but at least we have the retired one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 eps 5 day mean for end of nov into start of dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 man December has so much potential in my rookie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 just keeps getting better. Granted the high for the day would be upper 30s to near 40 in the city right after midnight, but what a thing of beauty for the day. Daytime highs stuck in the 20s. Figs roasting on frozen tundra thursday AM Thanksgiving dinner time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 BARNEY!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 Tombo' s unbridled exuberance for Barney cold on Thanksgiving will be further fueled by the GFS jumping on board. Models have been showing sharp cold like this in the mid-range then scaled back as Barney gets denied entry by border patrol. This Tuesday is an example, more of a glancing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 T - 300 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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