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(Banter) The TACT Winter Outlook (Banter)


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16 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Ramblewood had the Red Course closed today, so if this outlook fails, blame Jaws. 😜

 

Anyway a slow start and rousing finish:

Temps

Dec.....+8F

Jan.... -1F

Feb.... 0F

Mar.... 0F

 

PHL Snowfall

32.5"

 

Number of sub zero mins at PHL:  2

 

Enjoy.

By my reckoning (supported by what I found in the internet), the snowfall is 150% of the mean PHL snowfall. ☃️

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Not to step on the TACT outlook, but here's what I'm telling people at work. I hope I didn't screw up the technical terms.

We'll have a persistent -EPO due to tremendous oceanic heat content in and around the EPO region, a varying PNA because I honestly have no clue, an AO that is more often than not negative due to low solar activity, and high end-weak to moderate nino conditions due to I-can-read-what-everyone-else-says.

December: much warmer than normal with normal to above normal precipitation and little snowfall.

January: periods of above-normal temperatures alternating with below normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall. There is an increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

February: periods of seasonal temperatures alternating with much below normal temperatures and much above-normal snowfall. I expect a much increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

March: repeat of February, but warmer so that what may tend be a snowstorm in February may tend to be a rainstorm in March.

Putting it altogether, I predict somewhat above-normal temperatures and 125-175% of mean snowfall for the winter.

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19 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Ramblewood had the Red Course closed today, so if this outlook fails, blame Jaws. 😜

 

Anyway a slow start and rousing finish:

Temps

Dec.....+8F

Jan.... -1F

Feb.... 0F

Mar.... 0F

 

PHL Snowfall

32.5"

 

Number of sub zero mins at PHL:  2

 

Enjoy.

+8 for December? That's torch-like.

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2 hours ago, CyphaPSU said:

+8 for December? That's torch-like.

To add a little color to the December forecast - Tom used a blue ball which he found on the blue course because red was closed. Fortunately, he didn't use a white ball found on the white course in the snow forecast.

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19 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

To add a little color to the December forecast - Tom used a blue ball which he found on the blue course because red was closed. Fortunately, he didn't use a white ball found on the white course in the snow forecast.

I've seen Tom play. It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way he does.  🤣  I don't have much room to talk either.    Something tells me I'm going to pay for this comment...

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10 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I've seen Tom play. It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way he does.  🤣  I don't have much room to talk either.    Something tells me I'm going to pay for this comment...

can't make you pay when it's the truth. My golf game is pretty horrendous. Doesn't help I golf 3 times a year either.

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26 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I've seen Tom play. It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way he does.  🤣  I don't have much room to talk either.    Something tells me I'm going to pay for this comment...

He was crushing the pink ball

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6 hours ago, cbelke said:

I've seen Tom play. It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way he does.  🤣  I don't have much room to talk either.    Something tells me I'm going to pay for this comment...

The number of sub zero days in Philly (which would be the first since 1994) was based on the number of times I outdrove him on non par 3s. So basically how many times did Tom duff a tee shot.  Other than White #5, I drove the ball well (for me), so I wasn't making it easy on him.  Even the one time I outdrove Tom on Blue #8, I shot from the seniors while he shot from the whites, so neither shot was bad.

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5 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Not to step on the TACT outlook, but here's what I'm telling people at work. I hope I didn't screw up the technical terms.

We'll have a persistent -EPO due to tremendous oceanic heat content in and around the EPO region, a varying PNA because I honestly have no clue, an AO that is more often than not negative due to low solar activity, and high end-weak to moderate nino conditions due to I-can-read-what-everyone-else-says.

December: much warmer than normal with normal to above normal precipitation and little snowfall.

January: periods of above-normal temperatures alternating with below normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall. There is an increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

February: periods of seasonal temperatures alternating with much below normal temperatures and much above-normal snowfall. I expect a much increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

March: repeat of February, but warmer so that what may tend be a snowstorm in February may tend to be a rainstorm in March.

Putting it altogether, I predict somewhat above-normal temperatures and 125-175% of mean snowfall for the winter.

That is the nino climo and close to most outlooks.  I don't think I have seen an outlook yet that has had a warm 2nd half of winter.

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Bottom line the day was good. Hope some of you other guys could join us on the 295 tour next year. If you like weather speak, take a day off and do it. We have a retired NWS forecaster and Chubbs who is a knowledgeable weather enthusiast and maybe a cameo appearance by Tombo. You won't believe on what goes on. 

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6 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Not to step on the TACT outlook, but here's what I'm telling people at work. I hope I didn't screw up the technical terms.

We'll have a persistent -EPO due to tremendous oceanic heat content in and around the EPO region, a varying PNA because I honestly have no clue, an AO that is more often than not negative due to low solar activity, and high end-weak to moderate nino conditions due to I-can-read-what-everyone-else-says.

December: much warmer than normal with normal to above normal precipitation and little snowfall.

January: periods of above-normal temperatures alternating with below normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall. There is an increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

February: periods of seasonal temperatures alternating with much below normal temperatures and much above-normal snowfall. I expect a much increased chance for a significant East Coast snowstorm.

March: repeat of February, but warmer so that what may tend be a snowstorm in February may tend to be a rainstorm in March.

Putting it altogether, I predict somewhat above-normal temperatures and 125-175% of mean snowfall for the winter.

I like the way you think, and I'd subscribe to your newsletter.  😁

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