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December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat


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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

UKMET (it does tend to be wet) brings .1" to DCA and snirga to ILG.

Does it get into Mt. Holly CWA or doesn't it?

 

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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_34.png

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If I was in dc I’d keep an eye out. Like chubby stated this trended to far south to really help us out. Though maybendown towards snowlurker could get some mood flakes 

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Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday 

This is off the 0z euro, but just shows all the features models have to figure out before we get to a storm. I labeled each feature with an X and then a number. Then drew lines to show which effects w

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

If I was in dc I’d keep an eye out. Like chubby stated this trended to far south to really help us out. Though maybendown towards snowlurker could get some mood flakes 

The Giants are playing the Redskins there tomorrow; football games played in snow (domed stadiums aside) seem to occur less often.

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

UKMET (it does tend to be wet) brings .1" to DCA and snirga to ILG.

Does it get into Mt. Holly CWA or doesn't it?

Surprised Mt. Holly hasn't issued a radar hallucination advisory.

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

that map is just showing general range of members, the total qpf on the mean is well south of there still. 

eps_qpf_m_ma_11.png

Really is mute point since ensembles at this point are useless. They just follow the op and the euro bumped north a bit. Maybe DC will sneak in an inch or so but I wouldn’t be expecting anything north of there. 

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11 minutes ago, Feb said:

Really is mute point since ensembles at this point are useless. They just follow the op and the euro bumped north a bit. Maybe DC will sneak in an inch or so but I wouldn’t be expecting anything north of there. 

Agreed. Dc could get something. But the door is shut for philly for anything notable 

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I stopped posting the other day out of disgust.  Terrible luck imby ever since the 1/16 blizzard.  Anyway, I thought this was neat. Pic from Skyline Drive in Virginia facing nw. It's around 3,000' asl. You can see the low clouds starting to gather close by but in the distant nw, partly sunny skies. Brutal cutoff. 

Link and pic for posterity. 

https://www.nps.gov/customcf/webcam/dsp_webcam_image.cfm?id=81B46B71-1DD8-B71B-0B55074571E08B1E

 

pinnacles_800.jpg

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Gonna have to wait for the cold air cyclone to clear the coast for verification.  Snow did get into Mt. Holly's CWA, if it got to DC itself, didnt see flurries at National Airport, but it was that close (or just about there).  Northern extent, looked like a compromise/model consensus would have been better than any model. Maybe Euro was closest?

 

 

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deossnow.JPG

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Turns out the snow ended up less than 10 miles from NJ...still a pretty impressive north trend considering at one point the models barely had precip making it into Virginia. I can live with that, especially with the long-term storm chances later this month and for the rest of this winter 😃

snow.png

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