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December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat


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Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday 

This is off the 0z euro, but just shows all the features models have to figure out before we get to a storm. I labeled each feature with an X and then a number. Then drew lines to show which effects w

22 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Great. I expect server issues at a McDonalds or Wendys,  not at ncep!

Not worth staying up for runs tonight if you have to be up early like myself. Everything has this as a whiff except the ggem.  SO what I'm going to do is leave my phones browser on this page when i go to bed. Then when i wake up I open it up and It tells you how many new replies occurred. Can usually tell if the nights models runs were crap or good lo by how many replies happened. 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

(5 Dec 2018): Due to dataflow issues from NCEP, data may be delayed for some American models (NAM, GFS, etc.) this evening.

You know somebody who didn't get the day off is sitting there playing tic-tac-toe on his keyboard. 

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Not worth staying up for runs tonight if you have to be up early like myself. Everything has this as a whiff except the gfs. SO what I'm going to do is leave my phones browser on this page when i go to bed. Then when i wake up I open it up and It tells you how many new replies occurred. Can usually tell if the nights models runs were crap or good lo by how many replies happened. 

Ha! That's been my method for years as well. Lol

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My biggest fear with this being a whiff is pattern memory. A whiff like tge one being advertised is eerily reminiscent of the winter of 72/73 where 3 storms that generated winter storm watches or warnings all missed Bwi to the south. Bwi reporyed 1" that winter and places like Richmond,  Lynchburg and Roanoke all had AN snowfall.  Verrry painful...life altering!

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Even the ever hopeful CMC is South now.

Could be some slight Northerly turns in the remaining days, but it may be out to sea by the time that happens.

It's only the beginning of many snow weenie opportunities to come. 😎

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23 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

On to the next one!  At least we missed south as I had feared might be the case from the jump.  I'd rather not endure another cold rain anyway! 

The only thing I got right about this storm, when some were fearing a cutter, was I said the day was coming when we would need a north trend. Sure isn’t a cutter 

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HM has a couple of tweets on the big low that forms over Newfoundland and suppresses flow. Per chart below, the timing couldn't be worse with the low strengthening over Newfoundland just as the southern wave crosses the Miss Valley. Just the kind of flukey event needed for a North Carolina snowstorm.

gfs_z500a_atl_fh6-108.gif

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2 hours ago, Feb said:

The only thing I got right about this storm, when some were fearing a cutter, was I said the day was coming when we would need a north trend. Sure isn’t a cutter 

Yup and it looks like my dec 5th event will out perform this one lol

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