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December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat


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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah it is not as if no information gets into the models when systems are over the ocean, there is still satellite and aircraft information. Maybe it has as much to do with getting closer to t00 as it does with short waves getting over radiosonde sites.  Either way it does seem that some adjustments occur then.

Also handling of convection or lackthereof can still cause some southern stream modeling heartburn. 

Tony says YES!!!! 😉

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Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday 

This is off the 0z euro, but just shows all the features models have to figure out before we get to a storm. I labeled each feature with an X and then a number. Then drew lines to show which effects w

9 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Look at that Hudson Bay vort more north with every run. That has to be a good thing correct?

Its probably bad. That low was acting to lift the 50/50 in SE Canada out. Now that the Hudson Bay is shifting N, the 50/50 is holding fast and the wave in Maine is increasing confluence.

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40 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Look at that Hudson Bay vort more north with every run. That has to be a good thing correct? 

 

yes, but then look at the vort by Maine, thats stronger, so stronger confluence. 

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1 minute ago, Mitchnick said:

was just going to post that. If there is one glimmer of hope from 18z model runs it's this. This would probably be further nw than 12z

 

GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

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26 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

DOes anyone remember the storm last year (I’m almost positive it was last year) where the GGEM was the only model showing a hit for like a few days and then the other models jumped on board. It’s not impossible, just dont get your hopes up. 

I don't remember last year, but I remember the year before in 2017. The ggem was the first and most consistent model to bring a coastal up. It was the first to show the big thump of snow in southern DE and south jersey at night before the coastal got going from a coastal front. It was jan 7-8 2017

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48 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

DOes anyone remember the storm last year (I’m almost positive it was last year) where the GGEM was the only model showing a hit for like a few days and then the other models jumped on board. It’s not impossible, just dont get your hopes up. 

Not me because I got screwed by it. But what I am noticing is how the Gem is really relaxing the 5h low/confluence around the 50/50 low (I'll call it.) The Gem has always had a history of juicing storms up and bringing them further north and/or inland. Does the Gem get additional information from Canadian reporting stations?  Idk, just wondering what, if any, edge it may have over data in in Canada.  Also, wasn't there a fairly recent upgrade to the Gem? I recall reading that somewhere this fall. Swear I read that.

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46 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I don't remember last year, but I remember the year before in 2017. The ggem was the first and most consistent model to bring a coastal up. It was the first to show the big thump of snow in southern DE and south jersey at night before the coastal got going from a coastal front. It was jan 7-8 2017

Yep I believe it was that one

 

On 2nd thought after looking at the 500mb from that one I dont think it was....I gotta figure this out...All I know is from what I recall the models had an event in the day 9-10 range, took it away and then the CMC showed a hit on one of its 00z runs. It was the only one and eventually models agreed. Not like it matters, has nothing to do with this event.

What matters is we need some more support asap 

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13 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Not me because I got screwed by it. But what I am noticing is how the Gem is really relaxing the 5h low/confluence around the 50/50 low (I'll call it.) The Gem has always had a history of juicing storms up and bringing them further north and/or inland. Does the Gem get additional information from Canadian reporting stations?  Idk, just wondering what, if any, edge it may have over data in in Canada.  Also, wasn't there a fairly recent upgrade to the Gem? I recall reading that somewhere this fall. Swear I read that.

yea sveral years ago it went to the same processing as the euro uses like 4dvar or something like that but it's skill scores have been bad

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1 minute ago, Mitchnick said:

I haven't been interested in the Nam in forever.  But tonight when I am, it hasn't initialized at any site. Bad omen methinks.  Lol

believe ncep is having server issues with data. The gfs was delayed like 2 hrs

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