Feb 701 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Yeah it is not as if no information gets into the models when systems are over the ocean, there is still satellite and aircraft information. Maybe it has as much to do with getting closer to t00 as it does with short waves getting over radiosonde sites. Either way it does seem that some adjustments occur then. Also handling of convection or lackthereof can still cause some southern stream modeling heartburn. Tony says YES!!!! 😉 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Feb 701 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ggem looks good. 18z Nam at 84 hours looks good. 18z Icon bumped north. What more could you ask for?? 🤡 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJHurricane 287 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Btw you can blame yoda if this event goes down south <—— see what I did there Use the force on this confluence, he must 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jrodd321 435 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 Look at that Hudson Bay vort more north with every run. That has to be a good thing correct? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ACwx 559 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z nam is on top, 18z nam is on the bottom. All of the energy that was over New England vanished in a single run. Pretty huge change Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 Since the 76ers have a huge game tonight and the 18z GFS is crap....Im going with this 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,227 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: Look at that Hudson Bay vort more north with every run. That has to be a good thing correct? Its probably bad. That low was acting to lift the 50/50 in SE Canada out. Now that the Hudson Bay is shifting N, the 50/50 is holding fast and the wave in Maine is increasing confluence. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 40 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: Look at that Hudson Bay vort more north with every run. That has to be a good thing correct? yes, but then look at the vort by Maine, thats stronger, so stronger confluence. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z GEM looks consistent at 84 hrs with the 12z at 90 hrs, if not more juiced looking with these weathered, weenie eyes. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=084&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemglb&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 12z at 90 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120512&fh=90 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Mitchnick said: 18z GEM looks consistent at 84 hrs with the 12z at 90 hrs, if not more juiced looking with these weathered, weenie eyes. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=084&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=18&mod2=gemglb&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 12z at 90 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120512&fh=90 was just going to post that. If there is one glimmer of hope from 18z model runs it's this. This would probably be further nw than 12z Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 5,481 Posted December 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 local philly tv "storm looks like a miss to the south, great news for us" Great news??? 😡 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
phillysports11 54 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 Im out to dinner in New Hope Marsha Browns and I am laughing hysterically at the fact our local news thinks its good this snow storm is missing us, its terrible news! Go Sixers and lets get this confluence out! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday 11 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Feb 701 Posted December 5, 2018 Report Share Posted December 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Man a lot of jumpers already. I mean I'll be there soon but not till saturday I traded the bus in for a boat today. I sure hope I make it to Saturday 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Feb 701 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off excellent discussion today from Mt Holly 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SalemCountyNJ 463 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Feb said: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off excellent discussion today from Mt Holly Love the " To be blunt" statement.. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Feb 701 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z navgem big jump NW from 12z 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 DOes anyone remember the storm last year (I’m almost positive it was last year) where the GGEM was the only model showing a hit for like a few days and then the other models jumped on board. It’s not impossible, just dont get your hopes up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: DOes anyone remember the storm last year (I’m almost positive it was last year) where the GGEM was the only model showing a hit for like a few days and then the other models jumped on board. It’s not impossible, just dont get your hopes up. I don't remember last year, but I remember the year before in 2017. The ggem was the first and most consistent model to bring a coastal up. It was the first to show the big thump of snow in southern DE and south jersey at night before the coastal got going from a coastal front. It was jan 7-8 2017 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 48 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: DOes anyone remember the storm last year (I’m almost positive it was last year) where the GGEM was the only model showing a hit for like a few days and then the other models jumped on board. It’s not impossible, just dont get your hopes up. Not me because I got screwed by it. But what I am noticing is how the Gem is really relaxing the 5h low/confluence around the 50/50 low (I'll call it.) The Gem has always had a history of juicing storms up and bringing them further north and/or inland. Does the Gem get additional information from Canadian reporting stations? Idk, just wondering what, if any, edge it may have over data in in Canada. Also, wasn't there a fairly recent upgrade to the Gem? I recall reading that somewhere this fall. Swear I read that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I don't remember last year, but I remember the year before in 2017. The ggem was the first and most consistent model to bring a coastal up. It was the first to show the big thump of snow in southern DE and south jersey at night before the coastal got going from a coastal front. It was jan 7-8 2017 Yep I believe it was that one On 2nd thought after looking at the 500mb from that one I dont think it was....I gotta figure this out...All I know is from what I recall the models had an event in the day 9-10 range, took it away and then the CMC showed a hit on one of its 00z runs. It was the only one and eventually models agreed. Not like it matters, has nothing to do with this event. What matters is we need some more support asap Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Not me because I got screwed by it. But what I am noticing is how the Gem is really relaxing the 5h low/confluence around the 50/50 low (I'll call it.) The Gem has always had a history of juicing storms up and bringing them further north and/or inland. Does the Gem get additional information from Canadian reporting stations? Idk, just wondering what, if any, edge it may have over data in in Canada. Also, wasn't there a fairly recent upgrade to the Gem? I recall reading that somewhere this fall. Swear I read that. yea sveral years ago it went to the same processing as the euro uses like 4dvar or something like that but it's skill scores have been bad Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 675 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 I haven't been interested in the Nam in forever. But tonight when I am, it hasn't initialized at any site. Bad omen methinks. Lol Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Mitchnick said: I haven't been interested in the Nam in forever. But tonight when I am, it hasn't initialized at any site. Bad omen methinks. Lol believe ncep is having server issues with data. The gfs was delayed like 2 hrs Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WINTERweatherguy 19 Posted December 6, 2018 Report Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: I haven't been interested in the Nam in forever. But tonight when I am, it hasn't initialized at any site. Bad omen methinks. Lol Tropical Tidbits had this message earlier but I don't see it now: 6:30pm EST Dec. 5: NCEP data issues are causing delays in some model products. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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