Rainshadow Posted September 26, 2018 Report Share Posted September 26, 2018 ...Northeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states... A potent mid-level trough located over the western Great Lakes this morning will rapidly move northeast glancing the lower Great Lakes by early evening and New England after dark. Strong 500mb height falls will primarily remain north of the international border but weak height falls will likely extend as far south as PA. Coincident with the mid-level trough, a belt of strengthening southwesterly 500mb flow (50-70kt) will overspread western NY and New England. Early day clouds and scattered showers over the Northeast and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization, but the moist airmass coupled with pockets of modest heating amidst thinning cloud cover. Southerly low-level flow will enable an appreciably moist boundary layer to infiltrate much of New England by early afternoon. A couple of broken bands of convection will likely develop by midday in lee of the lower Great Lakes with these bands intensifying during the afternoon. Lengthening hodographs suggest some tendency to maintain some cellular character and the possibility for a couple of supercells is seemingly highest during the afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward into southwestern ME and south into the lower Hudson Valley. The most favorable hodographs will likely remain confined in the VT/NH/ME vicinity, but may in a mesoscale area farther south become more supportive of transient storm-scale rotation. Of particular note, the 00Z GFS appears as the outlier over southeast NY where terrain-channeled flow will probably maintain a larger hodograph structure rather than the veered low-level wind profile depicted by the GFS. Damaging winds are the predominant hazard with the stronger storms but a tornado or two is possible prior to nightfall. Farther south, a couple of clusters/small bands will likely develop during the afternoon over the higher terrain before moving east into lower elevations of MD/eastern PA and NJ by late in the day. Isolated to widely scattered damaging winds are the main threat with the stronger storms. This activity will likely weaken during the early evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.