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Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?


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This seems pretty typical...   

After several phone calls last evening my family finally convinced my Aunt who lives in Boiling Spring Lakes, NC to get out of dodge. She's en route to Bucks & should be here later this afternoon.

I’m thankful to say that my parents got out of the N. Myrtle Beach area very early this morning and made it to a campground they like in Florida. My dad can be stubborn about these things but he heede

15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We will see what recon finds here shortly. Satellite representation looks better with a better defined core with not as much dry air intrusion  so she’s holding her own right now after the weakening last night from southerly shear. That shear is present still but not as robust as last night. She still has to come across Gulf Stream which models show some pressure drops so it wouldn’t shock me if this bumps up 5mph today. Still not seeing 110mph storm though from last nights recon. This looks like 100mph storm 

SE side still degraded but starting to improve. Large outer band approaching coast.

20180913.0915.f16.x.91h_1deg.06LFLORENCE.95kts-956mb-325N-743W.096pc.jpg

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While I am thankful for the weakening of max sus. winds in the eyewall, this storm still has an enormous amount of energy dispersed around it.  Surge, flooding rains, and duration are the biggest problems here. I know a good portion of that coastline pretty well, lots of tide water areas will be hit.

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Just now, CyphaPSU said:

While I am thankful for the weakening of max sus. winds in the eyewall, this storm still has an enormous amount of energy dispersed around it.  Surge, flooding rains, and duration are the biggest problems here. I know a good portion of that coastline pretty well, lots of tide water areas will be hit.

Yup.  Regardless of whether the winds are 90 mph or 120 mph, it is still going to dump three feet of rain or more in many spots.  Wilmington has never experienced anything like this, I think their three day maximum rainfall was around 19 inches.  

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4 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Yup.  Regardless of whether the winds are 90 mph or 120 mph, it is still going to dump three feet of rain or more in many spots.  Wilmington has never experienced anything like this, I think their three day maximum rainfall was around 19 inches.  

that's right, 3 day total during Floyd was 19.06"

all time daily record is 13.38" on 9/15/1999

all time monthly record is 23.41" from SEPT 1999

Wilmington has a healthy period of record, back to 1871

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NHC forecast verification:

8am 9/13: 33.1 / 75.2 from vortex message  (passed PHL longitude) 95 knots.

24hr fcst:  32.6 / 75.1

48hr fcst:  32.6 / 75.2

72hr fcst:  33.0 / 76.3

96hr fcst:  32.2 / 75.8

Intensity forecasts were 30-35kts too hot, a sincere thank-you to the Florida upper low.

None of this though helps the rain part if the track stalls/meanders.

 

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I posted this in the photography forum a few weeks ago, this is Little River Inlet.  It's an inlet that happens to be located almost on the NC/SC boundary. I can't imagine what it will look like there over the next couple of days, the jetties will surely be under water.  I hope the inlet geography won't be dramatically changed, the shrimp boats and other large vessels that venture through there daily are important to the local economy (especially in the Little River and Calabash areas).  A lot depends on the track of Florence's center.

30274606518_612fdcdc8f_k.jpg

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Gotta see what next couple recon passes show but no way this is a 110 mph storm currently from what I’m seeing. Recon obs support a 90-95 mph storm right now and that’s generous. Heck the flight level winds right now don’t even support 110

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Gotta see what next couple recon passes show but no way this is a 110 mph storm currently from what I’m seeing. Recon obs support a 90-95 mph storm right now and that’s generous. Heck the flight level winds right now don’t even support 110

Not sure if anything has been updated since, but I saw on recon's first pass from a couple of hours ago the max sustained winds at the surface in the eyewall were recorded at 85 mph. 

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25 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like the first cirrus from Florence has reached us.  If these lower clouds were to dissipate, there would be a spectacular sunset here tonight.  Different picture for the Carolinas.

 

We have a chance! I love this website (sunsetwx.com) for sunrise/sunset forecasts. Colleagues of a friend of mine developed this.

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I appreciate everyone that answered my question from a couple pages back.

I'm glad to see the weakening. Obviously storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats, but hopefully the weaker winds will help translate to less damage. 

This hurricane seems to be staying a bit north of the forecasted track though if I'm reading these posts correctly. Does that change our forecast over the next three days at all (Fri, Sat, Sun)? 

Basically, could we be seeing some of the outer band rains reaching here this weekend, or is there still a fairly good confidence level we won't see anything until Tues/Wed of next week?

I always appreciate all the information and explanations that get shared here. Thank you for keeping us informed.

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even if it weakens to CAT1-2 would you expect CAT3 level storm surge do to the size of the storm? saw that with Floyd on Oak Island

Topsail Beach down to Bald Head Island will not look the same for awhile with that track

 

I would think Sandy is a good reference point for this too, down to Cat 1 and transitioning to extratropical yet still very severe storm surge flooding due to the shear size of the storm and its fetch over the ocean. Florence is not transitioning to extratropical and is not as big, but same concept that a weakening storm can still outperform relative to surge. Although I do think the lowered wind speeds and slow forward motion should make for a more gradual surge rather than one that crashes ashore? That should help limit some damage I would think, at least that’s the sentiment over on Stormtrack.

 

EDIT: I suspect the configuration of certain portions of the Carolinas coastline would also exacerbate the surge risk, so when comparing to Sandy that would more than offset the benefit of Florence being smaller.

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18 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

I appreciate everyone that answered my question from a couple pages back.

I'm glad to see the weakening. Obviously storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats, but hopefully the weaker winds will help translate to less damage. 

This hurricane seems to be staying a bit north of the forecasted track though if I'm reading these posts correctly. Does that change our forecast over the next three days at all (Fri, Sat, Sun)? 

Basically, could we be seeing some of the outer band rains reaching here this weekend, or is there still a fairly good confidence level we won't see anything until Tues/Wed of next week?

I always appreciate all the information and explanations that get shared here. Thank you for keeping us informed.

Still could have some late strengthening in the Gulf Stream.

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45 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

I appreciate everyone that answered my question from a couple pages back.

I'm glad to see the weakening. Obviously storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats, but hopefully the weaker winds will help translate to less damage. 

This hurricane seems to be staying a bit north of the forecasted track though if I'm reading these posts correctly. Does that change our forecast over the next three days at all (Fri, Sat, Sun)? 

Basically, could we be seeing some of the outer band rains reaching here this weekend, or is there still a fairly good confidence level we won't see anything until Tues/Wed of next week?

I always appreciate all the information and explanations that get shared here. Thank you for keeping us informed.

GFS has Tuesday, give some wiggle room maybe Monday on the early side? The track is on the north side of guidance, but not way north.

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2 hours ago, cg41386 said:

Still could have some late strengthening in the Gulf Stream.

I did see this mentioned and for whatever reason it completely slipped my mind as I was typing my post.

Thank you for the reminder. Hopefully it doesn't add too much strength to the storm. 

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