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Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?


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15 minutes ago, CyphaPSU said:

Agreed. Just comparing the 12z plot vs. observation is what stuck out to me a bit, that’s all I was responding to. I repent, I should not have wrote “zero indication.” :)

This is a Captain obvious post by me, you probably have more of a concern about the eventual track than anyone else on here. Not only for your parents, but for everyone along the storm's path, I (we) hope they find a safe place well before the impacts start.  No repenting needed.

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This seems pretty typical...   

After several phone calls last evening my family finally convinced my Aunt who lives in Boiling Spring Lakes, NC to get out of dodge. She's en route to Bucks & should be here later this afternoon.

I’m thankful to say that my parents got out of the N. Myrtle Beach area very early this morning and made it to a campground they like in Florida. My dad can be stubborn about these things but he heede

12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This is a Captain obvious post by me, you probably have more of a concern about the eventual track than anyone else on here. Not only for your parents, but for everyone along the storm's path, I (we) hope they find a safe place well before the impacts start.  No repenting needed.

Truth is that I want this storm to start pivoting around the high as quickly as possible. But with passing hour that possibility seems to be diminishing. The mid-level flow is not encouraging. 

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

no backing down from gfs and ggem with a close by brush

This is with dropsonde information now getting in.   Of course later on it (GFS) retrogrades into NC anyway.  Regardless, an encouraging track sign vs the EC.  Onto bananaland ttyl.

 

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What would the NHRA Nationals at Maple Grove weekend be without pending effects from a hurricane?

Last time I believe it was Joaquin two or maybe three years ago, which mercifully went out to sea. I might have the wrong name. 

Edit: Not sure it was Joaquin, but just last year Jose was threatening the east coast of the United States up this way heading into Maple Grove weekend. I'm fairly sure there's been at least one other in the last 3-4 years too.

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The CMC's scenario is probably worst case for the Outer Banks and probably will result in Isabel-level impacts in the Tidewater. That's not a pretty picture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Virginia

Plopping a 120 mph cane into NC before a stall is probably worse from a population impact but a 3-4 day stall off of Hatteras is probably going to wipe out a couple of islands completely and result in several years worth of damage in the rest of the Outer Banks.

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14 minutes ago, BeerandWXTogether said:

The CMC's scenario is probably worst case for the Outer Banks and probably will result in Isabel-level impacts in the Tidewater. That's not a pretty picture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Virginia

Plopping a 120 mph cane into NC before a stall is probably worse from a population impact but a 3-4 day stall off of Hatteras is probably going to wipe out a couple of islands completely and result in several years worth of damage in the rest of the Outer Banks.

 

Ah, Isabel... spent four months of my freshman year of high school living out of a hotel room with five family members thanks to her

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1 minute ago, Feb said:

I see the GFS has taken advantage of the legalization of marijuana. Strange strange run 

Outside of 2 days The gfs has been a joke with this. Love how it stalls it for 24hrs overwater yet keeps it the same pressure. Would not happen do to upwelling of cooler water. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Outside of 2 days The gfs has been a joke with this. Love how it stalls it for 24hrs overwater yet keeps it the same pressure. Would not happen do to upwelling of cooler water. 

It moves Florence in every direction possible. NW. then N. Stall. S. SW. W. NW. N. And gets heavy rain up in our neck of the woods 

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10 minutes ago, Feb said:

It moves Florence in every direction possible. NW. then N. Stall. S. SW. W. NW. N. And gets heavy rain up in our neck of the woods 

yea it brings heavy rain up here because it gets swept north by the front coming in from the west

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

Not trusting the models that show it raining itself out in NC?

No I can by that because they don't do the silly loopty doo the gfs does which in terms of time, them stalling in nc is the same timeframe the gfs does the loop just offshore. Then once past the weekend the front comes in and picks whatever is left of it and moves it out or up

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