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Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?


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This seems pretty typical...   

After several phone calls last evening my family finally convinced my Aunt who lives in Boiling Spring Lakes, NC to get out of dodge. She's en route to Bucks & should be here later this afternoon.

I’m thankful to say that my parents got out of the N. Myrtle Beach area very early this morning and made it to a campground they like in Florida. My dad can be stubborn about these things but he heede

15 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The gfs has outperformed other Florence guidance so far at the midway pole.

florbias.png

Most of that though comes from the GFS being correctly slower.  In terms of latitude the Euro has been better.  This could obviously change and the Euro has been known to go west and be slow.

bia.png.4f7629ab137cba6c4fddc3a31dba192f.png.1d46f7dd0b0abdaac63b9e578642ad19.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

These stall scenarios are ugly. Pre-storm conditions couldn't be worse for the inland mid-Atlantic. Gotta hope overlap between Gordon+Florence minimizes.

marfcbriefing.png

Ignoring the mslp because it is not going to be right, there aren't too many good scenarios out there other than the Outer Banks falling on the sword for inland locations (if this solution is close).

index.gif.ca4dc686387c3243ce3c76500359250b.gif

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Sorry I never posted that previous post about lunch time.

It is almost like following the 594DM line as to how west Florence goes.  The EC continues to be stronger with the ridge and thus Florence goes from just wrecking the Outer Banks to potentially bringing multi-billion dollar destruction inland.  96 hours away and neither model has blinked.

 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png

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Going to Tony's points about the Outer Banks, it reminds me a bit of Ophelia back in '05  (different track, obviously) but that stall out and spin around offshore if the GFS and CMC are to be believed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2005) (in case you can't recall what it did)

That might be the least crappy scenario on the board for everyone inland but it won't be a pretty situation for everyone in the Tidewater and down into the Outer Banks at all. And, yeah, this kind of scenario will be a major PITA for the Tidewater area as well (a couple of million people down there).

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Ignoring the mslp because it is not going to be right, there aren't too many good scenarios out there other than the Outer Banks falling on the sword for inland locations (if this solution is close).

Yeah, we are running out of good scenarios. Euro probably better for our area but worse further SW.

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19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Most of that though comes from the GFS being correctly slower.  In terms of latitude the Euro has been better.  This could obviously change and the Euro has been known to go west and be slow.

 

 

Yeah can't read too much into past performance. Different issues with upcoming pattern.

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

EPS, three clusters. Least clustered area is south of Myrtle Beach. Next clustered area is where the gfs and ggem are. The most clustered area is in the myrtle beach to wilmington area

eps_slp_lows_ma_18.png

GEFS clustering bifurcates the EPS's most likely solution, a few down in SC with most of the others hugging the OP solution.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png.27ded5fb17d562c603b3954f7a7e77c5.png

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44 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yeah can't read too much into past performance. Different issues with upcoming pattern.

Yeah, I don't know if one can get much of a warm and fuzzy feeling from what has been verified so far because it comes down to from this moment forward the formation, strength and retrogression of the WAR.  Doesn't look like there is much of a synoptic push from anywhere else.  There is some contribution from the Canadian surface high buiding into NY & New England, but the trof out west is just too west.

 

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From NHC:

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this
afternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation
into the numerical models, and these missions will continue through
Tuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the
central and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800
UTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical
models. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and
intensity forecasts.
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