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Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?


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This seems pretty typical...   

After several phone calls last evening my family finally convinced my Aunt who lives in Boiling Spring Lakes, NC to get out of dodge. She's en route to Bucks & should be here later this afternoon.

I’m thankful to say that my parents got out of the N. Myrtle Beach area very early this morning and made it to a campground they like in Florida. My dad can be stubborn about these things but he heede

27 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

18Z GFS has the Outer Banks getting hammered by a major hurricane.

 

gfs_mslp_wind_us_31.png

image.png

I have been there many times. I sure hope the GFS doesn’t verify. It just sits there. Would cause catastrophic damage down there.  

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The 12z run is the first time in a while that the pendulum has swung to the right (even if it is slightly).

Not shown, but recently the GFS, EC & HWRF have corrected their track bias and their lat is good, speed might be a bit fast.  The ukmet and ggem continue a left of track bias.

 

cones168_ecmf_storm_atl_2018090812.png

cones168_gefs_storm_atl_2018090812.png

ecmf_storm_atl_2018090812.png

gefs_storm_atl_2018090812.png

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3 hours ago, Mitchg said:

I don't want to see the EC QPF map from VA. 

To me the closest to a stall I can recall was with Agnes. But that had the old tropical system interacting with a stalled front.  The forecast for Florence is a total collapse of steering currents in a purely tropical set-up ala Harvey.  It looks like we are getting closer to not is the modeling idea of a collapse really correct but where does it occur.  Rooting for a UKMET outcome (unless beyond 144 hours it goes west or north again).

AgnesRFC9.jpg.3ce78109a0c12b63fa3a967ea4ca95b4.jpg

Agnes June 22.jpg

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I know were still pretty far out when it comes to models and tropical systems, but are the players in place to make that stall real, or can Florence still come north and impact Eastern PA?

 

There is a lack of steering once the WAR that helps push it west weakens. Rain part impact it could.

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Sometimes the devil is in the details.  Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future trends.  You look at this graph and you say wow, the Euro has really stunk with track so far with Florence (this is every forecast, can't cut the recent ones out) while the GFS has been better (actually one of the best).

mae.png.870522edfc2178bc185f6b96de461ea1.png

If you are talking about overall distance errors yes.  But with Florence threatening to reach the coast, it is not about distance, but about latitude:

bia.png.4f7629ab137cba6c4fddc3a31dba192f.png

The reason why the EC has perceivably stunk is because it has been too fast while the GFS has been slower.  But in terms of latitude, the EC & GGEM have been better, while the UKMET has been too left and GFS too right.  The EC has its share of left of track biases, so when it comes to our coast the GFS may end up being better, I don't know.  But so far it appears that these models for whatever reasons have shown one consistency, they have remained in their respective camps when it comes to bias.

 

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I'm not sure which stall scenario sucks less at this point. 

Having Florence off of the coast by 50 or 100 miles pretty much makes the Outer Banks a sitting duck for going underwater for a few days if not longer (and a couple of the islands probably go buh bye) and will probably pummel the hell out of the Tidewater as well. Bringing it inland brings the "underwater" to people inland and brings 100 mph winds to wherever Florence plops inland.

Neither scenario is pretty at this point.

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Not saying it can't happen, but that stall scenario adds up to about 4 days before it scoots out to sea again, and I just can't rely on the models this far out.  It will change 1000 times before landfall. I think it could be, and most likely will be, an epoch amount of flooding and wind damage for sure if it pans out, and it may be epoch regardless. Whether or not it meanders around like the models are picking up on or if it just barrels in to the coast and rains itself out inland.

The scenario's aren't good either way and I'm hoping it loops out to sea and we see minimal impacts.

 

 

 

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Great images Rainshadow, thanks for sharing.

Tropical forecasting/tracking isn't my cup of tea, but providing those images makes it easier for me personally to relay info to those asking me about the threat. 

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2 hours ago, BeerandWXTogether said:

I'm not sure which stall scenario sucks less at this point. 

Having Florence off of the coast by 50 or 100 miles pretty much makes the Outer Banks a sitting duck for going underwater for a few days if not longer (and a couple of the islands probably go buh bye) and will probably pummel the hell out of the Tidewater as well. Bringing it inland brings the "underwater" to people inland and brings 100 mph winds to wherever Florence plops inland.

Neither scenario is pretty at this point.

It is a pick your poison, but at least scenario A would lessen inland impacts.  The other thing too is we know it is true for the GFS, not sure about how the Euro responds to this other than it does, but all of the plumb bobbing in place would at least upwell cooler water.  No model brings the coastal waters stall as of now (based on 00z/06z guidance) to be that much help.

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

Not saying it can't happen, but that stall scenario adds up to about 4 days before it scoots out to sea again, and I just can't rely on the models this far out.  It will change 1000 times before landfall. I think it could be, and most likely will be, an epoch amount of flooding and wind damage for sure if it pans out, and it may be epoch regardless. Whether or not it meanders around like the models are picking up on or if it just barrels in to the coast and rains itself out inland.

The scenario's aren't good either way and I'm hoping it loops out to sea and we see minimal impacts.

 

 

 

Being from New York I hate standing in line for anything, so anytime I see a mid latitude stall (you know like those 966 lows the EC likes to stall just E of NJ in January) I wonder when the models will start recognizing that the Earth rotates.  But that didn't help Harvey much last year and the circulation around Florence is forecast to be from a mid lat perspective rather weak.  Anyway best case scenario that ridge retrogression is less and the stall is far enough offshore.  I did not see anything about dropsondes in the latest admnfd for the gfs, they do help that model.

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