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Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?


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all the models outside the gfs and Icon bring this into SC or GA. Gfs has been trending east with outer banks hit on 0z and 6z was a close brush, then punt. Can see the gfs over the last couple of runs has weakened the ridge to the north of Florence allowing for a subtle weakness for earlier recurve. 

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This seems pretty typical...   

After several phone calls last evening my family finally convinced my Aunt who lives in Boiling Spring Lakes, NC to get out of dodge. She's en route to Bucks & should be here later this afternoon.

I’m thankful to say that my parents got out of the N. Myrtle Beach area very early this morning and made it to a campground they like in Florida. My dad can be stubborn about these things but he heede

I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

The loop is cause it gets caught slightly in a weakness to yank it east a bit. but then ridge builds in again blocking it,  causing it to head back west

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2 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I see several of the models having it do a tight loop off shore. Not sure why that is, but could be a trend that it will slow down as it get closer, IF it goes up the coast, and IF it makes landfall.

The GFS and Icon (I am not sure about it with tropical systems.  Then again one can say that about nearly every model) are the only OP models with some sort of encouragement at the moment.

index.gif.9cf59d48db6bb68b315e001ae902f222.gif

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I can't match time to time, but other than one Euro run, the emergence and progression of the 594dm WAR has blocked Florence's recurve. First image is Florence east of Newfoundland.  The GFS's positioning of the WAR is not that different, but allows for a scrape with the current run.

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ukmet is north from its 0z run. It's just off shore of myrtle beach at hr 144. So ggem and ukmet have come in slower and a bit further north. Slower speed allows for further north scenario or punt as it give time for high to move further east

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

ukmet is north from its 0z run. It's just off shore of myrtle beach at hr 144. So ggem and ukmet have come in slower and a bit further north. Slower speed allows for further north scenario or punt as it give time for high to move further east

Maybe this is really more for us centric than the Carolinas, but it is easier for a tropical system to get trapped and lurched westward if there is some central conus/great lakes trof working in concert with any WAR.  I guess if the WAR is strong enough (Isabel example) and retrograding , it can do it on its own. But any tropical system once we are getting into the mid lats is fighting the coriolis force/any westerlies more and more to keep on going on any west of north movement.  I don't know the Florence answer, but just a point to ponder.  Here are some 500mb images from past tropical systems that have gone north or northwest:

Hazel:

5b940e5f60986_Hazel4.jpg.070555bc7e978731b9d367644a524365.jpg

Gloria:

092621.png.gif.60f8909412887d0ff219e0562c323a57.gif092712.png.gif.10848cec640f22888ae86e8d649d20ba.gif

Isabel:

091809.png.gif.29c7961a9279f84d4e80a09d9ef3e815.gif

Sandy:

102900.png.gif.1619cd6ca3565166a8827a6aeb28a7ed.gif

 

500mb Prediction for Florence:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png.0e62eda9b3bf859bb380722dd6faf448.png

 

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

all the models outside the gfs and Icon bring this into SC or GA. Gfs has been trending east with outer banks hit on 0z and 6z was a close brush, then punt. Can see the gfs over the last couple of runs has weakened the ridge to the north of Florence allowing for a subtle weakness for earlier recurve. 

Agree GFS ensemble members are trending east. . Euro continues to show Myrtle Beach hit, but very small and possibly less than a major.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

image.png.22ecdc06e6f7fac7c0723ccd469aadaf.pngf156.gif

image.png

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe this is really more for us centric than the Carolinas, but it is easier for a tropical system to get trapped and lurched westward if there is some central conus/great lakes trof working in concert with any WAR.  I guess if the WAR is strong enough (Isabel example) and retrograding , it can do it on its own. But any tropical system once we are getting into the mid lats is fighting the coriolis force/any westerlies more and more to keep on going on any west of north movement.  I don't know the Florence answer, but just a point to ponder.  Here are some 500mb images from past tropical systems that have gone north or northwest:

Hazel:

5b940e5f60986_Hazel4.jpg.070555bc7e978731b9d367644a524365.jpg

Gloria:

 

Isabel:

 

Sandy:

 

 

500mb Prediction for Florence:

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png.0e62eda9b3bf859bb380722dd6faf448.png

 

If you look at Hazels h5 chart you can clearly see track would be just east of apps. High just offshore and trough to the west creates lane. Gfs has that high further east allowing for more offshore as it goes around it. Euro here trended towards that to a degree. It’s High location was further offshore this run allowing for further north and east approach as it works around it. The trough out west doesn’t seem like much of a player. It seems like positioning of that ridge just offshore combined with Florence speed and intensity are what determines track 

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Since Gigi has been missing out on rain, lets all pull for this eps member so his drought can be put to an end

 

You don't want to play golf next weekend do you? ;)

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well that map is thru  Friday evening. Should be ending soon. So Saturday would be gondola(s) only.

it actually swings back into the coast and rains right through till sunday... 10"+ at vay on that member

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