Final Verification & Winner Of The Outforecast The GFS On Precip Duration Sep 7th-11th.

[Rainshadow]

The GFS which brought you a stalling sub 900mb hurricane that ended as a snow storm in Canada has made another gem (we are not talking global gem) with the 12z run today.  It is predicting 38 consecutive three hour periods (114 hours in all) of measurable precipitation in Philadelphia.  Mind you, it might have been years since the last time Philadelphia had 38 consecutive hours of measurable precipitation.

Anyway between 2 pm Thursday and 8 am Tuesday, forecast the number of 3 hour periods (can't be more than 39) (they run 2-5, 5-8, 8-11 & 11-2 am/pm) of measurable precipitation for PHL.  The person who comes closest, wins the sleeve of cat golf balls that Parsley can't give away.  If you win it & are at the outing, I'll give you the sleeve there.  If not, we will mail them to you. If you guess the # on the dime, there may be an upgrade to Kirkland Balls. We are so confident you can outforecast the GFS in this regard, we are giving you the first two three hour periods away.  The deadline for entry is 8 pm EDT on Thursday the 6th. 

Good luck!

 

[Rainshadow]

BTW, this is not the greatest number of consecutive three hour periods, but the total number of three hour periods between 2 pm Thursday and 8 am Tuesday.

 

[Rainshadow]

 

[cbelke]

Decisions, decisions...

 

[Rainshadow]

23 hours ago, cbelke said:

Decisions, decisions...

 

You could have won saying 0.

[cbelke]

41 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You could have won saying 0.

Damn!! It's past 8pm!! I wasn't watching the clock!! 

[Chubbs]

oops, gave us too much time to forget.  Judging by today's forecast trend, 0 isn't that bad a call.

[Rainshadow]

40 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

oops, gave us too much time to forget.  Judging by today's forecast trend, 0 isn't that bad a call.

Of the 7 (consecutive no less) three hour periods the GFS already forecast up to this point, there has been 1 that has verified and that with 0.01".

[Rainshadow]

Well the GFS was half or a third right.  The 38 (consecutive) three hour periods with measurable rain was actually 19 three hour periods with measurable rain with the greatest streak of measurable at twelve three hour periods on Sunday & Monday.

As far as raw hourly data, PHL had a max of 23 consecutive hours of measurable precipitation.  There was a one hour break and then another 9 consecutive hours of measurable precipitation.  So 32 out of 33 hours of measurable the greatest, not 38 consecutive three hour periods (114 straight hours) of measurable. 

The winner was me because no one participated and I get to keep the sleeve of cat golf balls I can't give away.

 

[cbelke]

4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well the GFS was half or a third right.  The 38 (consecutive) three hour periods with measurable rain was actually 19 three hour periods with measurable rain with the greatest streak of measurable at twelve three hour periods on Sunday & Monday.

As far as raw hourly data, PHL had a max of 23 consecutive hours of measurable precipitation.  There was a one hour break and then another 9 consecutive hours of measurable precipitation.  So 32 out of 33 hours of measurable the greatest, not 38 consecutive three hour periods (114 straight hours) of measurable. 

The winner was me because no one participated and I get to keep the sleeve of cat golf balls I can't give away.

 

Well, because I said nothing, doesn't that count as zero? 

[Rainshadow]

10 hours ago, cbelke said:

Well, because I said nothing, doesn't that count as zero? 

Lol, well you said more than anyone else.