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A Plethora Of September PHL Heat Climo Stats For The GFS


Bananashadow
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Maybe today's 12z run is a return to the more typical recent September heat instead of the let's obliterate all standing records the sounding runs of the GFS have had lately.  Well it isn't September 15th yet, so one can't verify a forecast with a forecast, so we will see.  My money is on the EC though.

Instead of polluting this thread with GFS this, GFS that, I will edit one post until this insufferable pattern comes to its bitter end.  Hopefully this thread will start the KOD on this subject.

Anyway all September "heat" facts that you really never wanted to think about for PHL:

Warmest September on record..................................75.4F in yes 1881.   102F max temp that month.

Greatest # of >/= 90F highs.......................................8 days in 1970 & 1941

Greatest # of Sept only Consecutive 90F highs.......6 days  9/9-9/14 1931 &  9/5-9/10, 1884

Greatest consecutive yrs with >/= 90F highs..........7 in a row 1968-1974 & 1939-1945

                                                                                         We are currently at 6 years in a row (2012-2017)

 The last four Septembers in a row have averaged 70F or higher in PHL.  Only 6 of the previous 15 averaged 70F or higher.

 

 

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What the GFS has been predicting to occur  (bolded would be new inclusive September records)

8/28/00z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6.  Highest temp 93F

8/28/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

8/28/12z run..........2 consecutive days of 90F or higher (twice) last ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/28/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 93F

 

8/29/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/29/06z run..........10 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/11. Highest temp 96F

8/29/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/8. Highest temp 95F

8/29/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 96F

 

8/30/00z run..........9 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/10. Highest temp 97F

8/30/06z run..........3 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/5. Highest temp 94F

8/30/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/9. Highest temp 97F

8/30/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

 

8/31/00z run..........12 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/14. Highest temp 97F

8/31/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

8/31/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

8/31/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 100F

 

9/1/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 99F

9/1/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 99F

9/1/12z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/1/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 98F

 

9/2/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/2/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

 

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13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe today's 12z run is a return to the more typical recent September heat instead of the let's obliterate all standing records the sounding runs of the GFS have had lately.  Well it isn't September 15th yet, so one can't verify a forecast with a forecast, so we will see.  My money is on the EC though.

Instead of polluting this thread with GFS this, GFS that, I will edit one post until this insufferable pattern comes to its bitter end.  Hopefully this thread will start the KOD on this subject.

Anyway all September "heat" facts that you really never wanted to think about for PHL:

Warmest September on record..................................75.4F in yes 1881.   102F max temp that month.

Greatest # of >/= 90F highs.......................................8 days in 1970 & 1941

Greatest # of Sept only Consecutive 90F highs.......6 days  9/9-9/14 1931 &  9/5-9/10, 1884

Greatest consecutive yrs with >/= 90F highs..........7 in a row 1968-1974 & 1939-1945

                                                                                         We are currently at 6 years in a row (2012-2017)

 The last four Septembers in a row have averaged 70F or higher in PHL.  Only 6 of the previous 15 averaged 70F or higher.

 

 

Of the first five years mentioned, in terms of our current enso state, only 1884 is similar to what is going on (heading into nino).    

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe today's 12z run is a return to the more typical recent September heat instead of the let's obliterate all standing records the sounding runs of the GFS have had lately.  Well it isn't September 15th yet, so one can't verify a forecast with a forecast, so we will see.  My money is on the EC though.

Instead of polluting this thread with GFS this, GFS that, I will edit one post until this insufferable pattern comes to its bitter end.  Hopefully this thread will start the KOD on this subject.

Anyway all September "heat" facts that you really never wanted to think about for PHL:

Warmest September on record..................................75.4F in yes 1881.   102F max temp that month.

Greatest # of >/= 90F highs.......................................8 days in 1970 & 1941

Greatest # of Sept only Consecutive 90F highs.......6 days  9/9-9/14 1931 &  9/5-9/10, 1884

Greatest consecutive yrs with >/= 90F highs..........7 in a row 1968-1974 & 1939-1945

                                                                                         We are currently at 6 years in a row (2012-2017)

Last September Day with a >/= 100F High..............9/3/1953

Latest & Hottest Sept 100 Degree Day....................9/7/1881.....102F

 The last four Septembers in a row have averaged 70F or higher in PHL.  Only 6 of the previous 15 averaged 70F or higher.

 

 

Thank-you 18z GFS.

 

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93 High on the 3rd @PHL so 12z run on the 3rd will be the last:

 

What the GFS has been predicting to occur  (bolded would be new inclusive September records)

8/28/00z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6.  Highest temp 93F

8/28/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

8/28/12z run..........2 consecutive days of 90F or higher (twice) last ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/28/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 93F

 

8/29/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/29/06z run..........10 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/11. Highest temp 96F

8/29/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/8. Highest temp 95F

8/29/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 96F

 

8/30/00z run..........9 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/10. Highest temp 97F

8/30/06z run..........3 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/5. Highest temp 94F

8/30/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/9. Highest temp 97F

8/30/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

 

8/31/00z run..........12 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/14. Highest temp 97F

8/31/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

8/31/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

8/31/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 100F

 

9/1/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 99F

9/1/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 99F

9/1/12z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/1/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 98F

 

9/2/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/2/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

9/2/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 98F

9/2/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

 

9/3/00z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

9/3/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

9/3/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

 

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On 9/4/2018 at 9:27 AM, Rainshadow said:

93 High on the 3rd @PHL so 12z run on the 3rd will be the last:

 

What the GFS has been predicting to occur  (bolded would be new inclusive September records)

8/28/00z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6.  Highest temp 93F

8/28/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

8/28/12z run..........2 consecutive days of 90F or higher (twice) last ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/28/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 93F

 

8/29/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 94F

8/29/06z run..........10 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/11. Highest temp 96F

8/29/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/8. Highest temp 95F

8/29/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 96F

 

8/30/00z run..........9 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/10. Highest temp 97F

8/30/06z run..........3 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/5. Highest temp 94F

8/30/12z run..........7 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/9. Highest temp 97F

8/30/18z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

 

8/31/00z run..........12 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/14. Highest temp 97F

8/31/06z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 95F

8/31/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

8/31/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 100F

 

9/1/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 99F

9/1/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 99F

9/1/12z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/1/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 98F

 

9/2/00z run..........5 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/7. Highest temp 98F

9/2/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

9/2/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 98F

9/2/18z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

 

9/3/00z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

9/3/06z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 97F

9/3/12z run..........4 consecutive days of 90F or higher ending on 9/6. Highest temp 96F

 

Verification: Heat wave or 90s stretch lasted four days and highest temp was 95F.

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