Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 It starts with a slow moving cold front on Friday and ends with a wave on Sunday. ...Northeast... A warm front will quickly lift northward across northeast NY and VT/NH this morning. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. Modest heating, with highs generally from the upper 70s into the 80s, will be sufficient for the development of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will increase with the approach of the upper trough and thunderstorms are expected by early afternoon in the vicinity of a prefrontal trough across eastern PA/NY, as well as along the warm front across VT/NH into southern New England. 25-35 kt effective shear will be sufficient for organized clusters and marginal supercell structures capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail. While low-level shear is not particularly impressive, backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface trough and warm front, coupled with forecast mean mixing ratios around 16 g/kg, a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out. Additional thunderstorms may develop later in the evening as a surface cold front shifts southward from Quebec, but severe potential will be limited as boundary-layer stabilization ensues with loss of daytime heating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Welcome to BGM Mitch.... Day 1 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 17 2018 - 12Z Sat Aug 18 2018 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION... ...Northern Mid Atlantic---Southern Tier of NY state...northern NY state into Northern New England... Surface low pressure expected to deepen Friday morning over the eastern Great Lakes---pushing eastward into northern NY state and northern New England Friday night-early Saturday. Strengthening isentropic lift ahead of this developing low and to the northeast of the associated northeastward moving warm front will support an initial area of moderate to heavy precip moving northeast across these areas. This will be followed by potential organized frontal/pre-frontal convection along the trailing cold front from the low moving into northern New England Friday night into early Saturday. Much above average pw values...standard deviations of 1.5-2.5+ above the mean...will support potential for widespread heavy precip totals and the threat of runoff issues---especially over some of the very low ffg value regions from northeast PA into the Southern Tier of the NY state. With respect to the previous outlook for this period...the slight risk was extended farther southwestward into northeast PA to cover the above mentioned low ffg value regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Tony, will you be changing your screen name to Snowshadow this winter? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 49 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: Tony, will you be changing your screen name to Snowshadow this winter? I am snowshadow on trip advisor and tstmshadow on twitter fwtw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Not a lot of drying going on with this cloud cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Storms in Berks County and anvil top blow off mucking up instability in SE PA. Shocking! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Man, just missed that massive cluster of storms. That is one hell of a hail core in Berks County! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 Would not be surprised to see a high number of trees down across Berks county from the complex moving through. It has a lot of momentum and a long history of damaging winds, with a very damp ground to help the trees topple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 My brother said he is getting bombed in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyphaPSU Posted August 17, 2018 Report Share Posted August 17, 2018 I guess WPVI has the expectation that if you’re watching Jeopardy, then you must be a speed reader. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 100 percent fringed here. Great light show looking north. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 .33 here... some lightning, some thunder, some wind, and a whole lot of yawning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 .33" here as well. Lots of lightning and people who can't drive in the rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafpsu Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 1.05” at home in Sinking Spring, Berks County. Breezy, warm and humid at the shore in Stone Harbor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rramblings Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 9:15 pm. Quite a lightning show in the Flemington area of Hunterdon County NJ from about 8:55 to 9:15pm. Worst of storm seems to be starting to clear area. Will get rainfall total tomorrow am. Tyler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 Whole lotta nothing, but that's ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 .36" from yesterday's afternoon and evening storms. I was at the Promenade in Center Valley, PA last night for dinner when that severe t-storm moved through. It put on a good light show, steady to sometimes torrential downpours, no hail (near me anyway). People not knowing how to drive in rain was my major peeve. 4 way flashers were on a number of vehicles doing 15 mph on Rt 309. Two lanes side by side and probably 100 plus cars backed up because of those people. I had my wipers on low the whole time. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 0.18" overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 0.03" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talonsmith Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 The PA storm clouds were throwing some serious shadow into central NJ yesterday, that is always the weirdest observation to me when its clear above but dark out. Only got .18 overnight from the late night storm that passed through our area. Thought it would be more from everything being beat flat. Must have been an intense outburst. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rramblings Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 12 hours ago, rramblings said: 9:15 pm. Quite a lightning show in the Flemington area of Hunterdon County NJ from about 8:55 to 9:15pm. Worst of storm seems to be starting to clear area. Will get rainfall total tomorrow am. Tyler Aug 18, 7 am: 1.3 inches of rainfall since nice 8:20 pm Friday Aug 17. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 Gusting to about 40 and torrential rain. Nice summer soaker, not looking forward to the steam on the other side though. Rumbles but nothing close yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 Heavy storm at home last night. Currently a sticky 91 in OC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 18, 2018 Report Share Posted August 18, 2018 Somebody wake me up when something happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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