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8/17-8/19 Taking Forever Cold Front To Clear Area Obs


Bananashadow
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It starts with a slow moving cold front on Friday and ends with a wave on Sunday. 



...Northeast...

   A warm front will quickly lift northward across northeast NY and
   VT/NH this morning. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the
   upper 60s to low 70s are expected. Modest heating, with highs
   generally from the upper 70s into the 80s, will be sufficient for
   the development of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer
   south/southwesterly flow will increase with the approach of the
   upper trough and thunderstorms are expected by early afternoon in
   the vicinity of a prefrontal trough across eastern PA/NY, as well as
   along the warm front across VT/NH into southern New England. 25-35
   kt effective shear will be sufficient for organized clusters and
   marginal supercell structures capable of strong, locally damaging
   wind gusts and marginal hail. While low-level shear is not
   particularly impressive, backed low-level winds in the vicinity of
   the surface trough and warm front, coupled with forecast mean mixing
   ratios around 16 g/kg, a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out. 

   Additional thunderstorms may develop later in the evening as a
   surface cold front shifts southward from Quebec, but severe
   potential will be limited as boundary-layer stabilization ensues
   with loss of daytime heating. 

day1otlk_1200.gif

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Welcome to BGM Mitch....

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 17 2018 - 12Z Sat Aug 18 2018 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEAST 
PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR 
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE 
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...

...Northern Mid Atlantic---Southern Tier of NY state...northern NY 
state into Northern New England...
Surface low pressure expected to deepen Friday morning over the 
eastern Great Lakes---pushing eastward into northern NY state and 
northern New England Friday night-early Saturday.  Strengthening 
isentropic lift ahead of this developing low and to the northeast 
of the associated northeastward moving warm front will support an 
initial area of moderate to heavy precip moving northeast across 
these areas.  This will be followed by potential organized 
frontal/pre-frontal convection along the trailing cold front from 
the low moving into northern New England Friday night into early 
Saturday.  Much above average pw values...standard deviations of 
1.5-2.5+ above the mean...will support potential for widespread 
heavy precip totals and the threat of runoff issues---especially 
over some of the very low ffg value regions from northeast PA into 
the Southern Tier of the NY state.  With respect to the previous 
outlook for this period...the slight risk was extended farther 
southwestward into northeast PA to cover the above mentioned low 
ffg value regions.  

 

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.36" from yesterday's afternoon and evening storms. I was at the Promenade in Center Valley, PA last night for dinner when that severe t-storm moved through. It put on a good light show, steady to sometimes torrential downpours, no hail (near me anyway).

People not knowing how to drive in rain was my major peeve. 4 way flashers were on a number of vehicles doing 15 mph on Rt 309. Two lanes side by side and probably 100 plus cars backed up because of those people. I had my wipers on low the whole time. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way!!! :crazy:

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The  PA storm clouds were throwing some serious shadow into central NJ yesterday, that is always the weirdest observation to me when its clear above but dark out.

Only got .18 overnight from the late night storm that passed through our area. Thought it would be more from everything being beat flat. Must have been an intense outburst.

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12 hours ago, rramblings said:

9:15 pm. Quite a lightning show in the Flemington area of Hunterdon County NJ from about 8:55 to 9:15pm. Worst of storm seems to be starting to clear area. Will get rainfall total tomorrow am. Tyler

Aug 18, 7 am: 1.3 inches of rainfall since nice 8:20 pm Friday Aug 17. 

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