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7/17 Thunderstorms & Pcpn Observations


Bananashadow
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In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc.

Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today.

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5 minutes ago, cbelke said:

In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc.

Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today.

I used to trust seeing consensus among the 10 NCAR mesoscale ensemble members.  That used to work pretty well.  Now I don't know who to trust or there isn't really a standout.

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7 minutes ago, cbelke said:

In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc.

Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today.

The HRRR runs before convection development used to be more accurate than HRRR runs once convection was ongoing.  I don't know if that is still true.

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10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I used to trust seeing consensus among the 10 NCAR mesoscale ensemble members.  That used to work pretty well.  Now I don't know who to trust or there isn't really a standout.

I miss the NCAR.

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8 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Plenty of Sun poking through now, I have a feeling this could be a good storm day

The modeling consensus was pretty solid from the fall line northwest, it starts getting a little more sketchier down my way. I saw some 7-10 splits.  Either way this has been such a zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz with thunderstorms lately, it would be hard for me to say today underperformed.

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Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171549Z - 171745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in damaging wind potential is expected through this afternoon. Thunderstorm trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak shortwave trough advancing over the Appalachians, convection continues to deepen from eastern Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley late this morning. Downstream of this activity, surface temperatures are rising into the mid/upper 80s, while dew points hold in the lower/mid 70s. Adjusting the 12Z ALB/OKX soundings for these observations suggests around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms should continue to form within a weakly confluent, uncapped environment along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough, and storms mergers will likely favor localized upscale growth/bowing. In conjunction with steepening 0-1 km lapse rates and approximately 20-30 kt of westerly mid-level flow, this convective evolution may support occasional strong/damaging gusts into this afternoon. If thunderstorm coverage/organization warrants, a watch may be needed by early/mid afternoon. ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

AC85C509-14F7-412C-9211-9D987999ED13.gif

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44 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

 

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171549Z - 171745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in damaging wind potential is expected through this afternoon. Thunderstorm trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak shortwave trough advancing over the Appalachians, convection continues to deepen from eastern Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley late this morning. Downstream of this activity, surface temperatures are rising into the mid/upper 80s, while dew points hold in the lower/mid 70s. Adjusting the 12Z ALB/OKX soundings for these observations suggests around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms should continue to form within a weakly confluent, uncapped environment along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough, and storms mergers will likely favor localized upscale growth/bowing. In conjunction with steepening 0-1 km lapse rates and approximately 20-30 kt of westerly mid-level flow, this convective evolution may support occasional strong/damaging gusts into this afternoon. If thunderstorm coverage/organization warrants, a watch may be needed by early/mid afternoon. ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

AC85C509-14F7-412C-9211-9D987999ED13.gif

The bubble will move before it all hits.

 

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15 minutes ago, cbelke said:

You still got the sprinklers running?

I turned them off after an hour, basically to maintain today before the, cough, thunderstorms arrive here.  Mount Laurel has permanent even/odd watering restrictions and today was our day.  The township maintains a pumping station down the block from us, so I pretty much adhere to the prescribed day(s).

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