Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc. Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, cbelke said: In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc. Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today. I used to trust seeing consensus among the 10 NCAR mesoscale ensemble members. That used to work pretty well. Now I don't know who to trust or there isn't really a standout. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, cbelke said: In modeling, who do we trust? NAM, HRRR, ICON, WRF, etc, etc. Either way, from about noon on, there could be some storms firing up, more likely after 3 pm. Although, its cloudy now, and if it doesn't clear up, I don't see a lot happening. The PWAT's are in the general 2" range, so there is plenty of moisture to work with later today. The HRRR runs before convection development used to be more accurate than HRRR runs once convection was ongoing. I don't know if that is still true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Speaking of trust, here is the NSSL wrf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: I used to trust seeing consensus among the 10 NCAR mesoscale ensemble members. That used to work pretty well. Now I don't know who to trust or there isn't really a standout. I miss the NCAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Plenty of Sun poking through now, I have a feeling this could be a good storm day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Plenty of Sun poking through now, I have a feeling this could be a good storm day The modeling consensus was pretty solid from the fall line northwest, it starts getting a little more sketchier down my way. I saw some 7-10 splits. Either way this has been such a zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz with thunderstorms lately, it would be hard for me to say today underperformed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Plenty of Sun poking through now, I have a feeling this could be a good storm day Yup, timing is good. With high dews don't need much sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Yup, low level clouds starting to burn off. Gonna feel the burn in a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, cbelke said: Yup, low level clouds starting to burn off. Gonna feel the burn in a bit. Our sprinklers are on, you can thank me later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Our sprinklers are on, you can thank me later. Feels weird to hear my sump pump running and the ground is still so dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Decent expected coverage. Not great if one has a flight today though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171549Z - 171745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in damaging wind potential is expected through this afternoon. Thunderstorm trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak shortwave trough advancing over the Appalachians, convection continues to deepen from eastern Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley late this morning. Downstream of this activity, surface temperatures are rising into the mid/upper 80s, while dew points hold in the lower/mid 70s. Adjusting the 12Z ALB/OKX soundings for these observations suggests around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms should continue to form within a weakly confluent, uncapped environment along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough, and storms mergers will likely favor localized upscale growth/bowing. In conjunction with steepening 0-1 km lapse rates and approximately 20-30 kt of westerly mid-level flow, this convective evolution may support occasional strong/damaging gusts into this afternoon. If thunderstorm coverage/organization warrants, a watch may be needed by early/mid afternoon. ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 44 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171549Z - 171745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in damaging wind potential is expected through this afternoon. Thunderstorm trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak shortwave trough advancing over the Appalachians, convection continues to deepen from eastern Pennsylvania to the Hudson Valley late this morning. Downstream of this activity, surface temperatures are rising into the mid/upper 80s, while dew points hold in the lower/mid 70s. Adjusting the 12Z ALB/OKX soundings for these observations suggests around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Storms should continue to form within a weakly confluent, uncapped environment along/ahead of a pre-frontal trough, and storms mergers will likely favor localized upscale growth/bowing. In conjunction with steepening 0-1 km lapse rates and approximately 20-30 kt of westerly mid-level flow, this convective evolution may support occasional strong/damaging gusts into this afternoon. If thunderstorm coverage/organization warrants, a watch may be needed by early/mid afternoon. ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... The bubble will move before it all hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 I hear thunder. Looks like its about 10 miles or so away. That will skirt NE of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 We have 92/72 in Mount Laurel. Safe to say Philly has another 90 degree day also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: We have 92/72 in Mount Laurel. Safe to say Philly has another 90 degree day also. You still got the sprinklers running? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Got rain? I do. Big ol' drops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Incoming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, cbelke said: You still got the sprinklers running? I turned them off after an hour, basically to maintain today before the, cough, thunderstorms arrive here. Mount Laurel has permanent even/odd watering restrictions and today was our day. The township maintains a pumping station down the block from us, so I pretty much adhere to the prescribed day(s). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Starting to hear some thunder. Looks like one of those days with too much convection for anything too severe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, Parsley said: Incoming... Looks like you’re getting smoked: Been a while since I’ve seen this storm motion as well. Seems like previous events had a W-E / NW-SE motion. Always like when storms come from Se-NE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 It's here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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