Chubbs Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 Modoki El Nino looking more likely. Like the early trends for next winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/jamstec_news/20180606/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 11, 2018 Report Share Posted June 11, 2018 ^ we take.... another fig crushing cold winter with abundant snow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 12, 2018 Report Share Posted June 12, 2018 23 hours ago, tombo82685 said: ^ we take.... another fig crushing cold winter with abundant snow I don't have much confidence in guidance parsecting the type of el nino or la nina for that fact and the tendency in the spring for the guidance to go el nino happy (just like last winter was suppose to be). But it is ironic that the guidance link within Charlie's post looks nothing like modoki. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 20, 2018 Report Share Posted June 20, 2018 The ENSO modeling update for Mid June is holding its own for an el nino for next winter. The dynamical model peak has increased from +0.8C in April to +1.0C this month. The four models that handled last winter the best (attached graph if you see otherwise) are all in nino territory except for the Aussie's. But if one corrects current conditions, even that model would bring weak el nino conditions. My nino skepticism is waning. Latest weekly 3.4 was up to +0.2C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 Hope to see the CANSIPS continue with the modki theme nino with the update on Monday. CFS has a modki as well but the model output makes no sense for that type of nino. Modki ninos usually yield lots of wintertime fruit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 10 hours ago, Mitchg said: Hope to see the CANSIPS continue with the modki theme nino with the update on Monday. CFS has a modki as well but the model output makes no sense for that type of nino. Modki ninos usually yield lots of wintertime fruit. You don’t really need a modoki, though that is preferred. A weak to moderate El Niño works. Strong El Niño’s can be trouble and swing either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 30, 2018 Report Share Posted June 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: You don’t really need a modoki, though that is preferred. A weak to moderate El Niño works. Strong El Niño’s can be trouble and swing either way. JP & I use to laugh at the play on words: what one really needs is a "weak" strong El Nino ala 1957-8 and 2009-10. At least in my book the ability for models to skillfully place the ssta within a couple of tenths or max ssta location are lower vs getting the general idea correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 2, 2018 Report Share Posted July 2, 2018 Cansips had another good run for the winter with a pretty fun looking Jan and Feb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted July 5, 2018 Report Share Posted July 5, 2018 On 7/2/2018 at 3:10 PM, Mitchg said: Cansips had another good run for the winter with a pretty fun looking Jan and Feb. Euro was a mizer December then much more to our liking in Jan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 5, 2018 Report Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Mitchg said: Euro was a mizer December then much more to our liking in Jan. Typical of ninos with December being blah. Then slowly getting better as winter progresses. Well unless it’s a strong Niño Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 15, 2018 Report Share Posted July 15, 2018 I know there wasn't a thread for this as to where to put it, so here you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted July 16, 2018 Report Share Posted July 16, 2018 Average temperatures in Fairbanks have now begun their decline - a thread is appropriate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 So you know where this post is going. I don't know. I have seen enough el nino bandwagon jumping spring/summer modeling to remain skeptical and am not going to even go there about how every el nino is automatically a modoki because it's the only type we can have. All others need not apply. The SSTA are not rip roaring as of now and taking a look at the weeklies, they have actually cooled. Just because the sub surface is warm doesn't necessarily translate to the surface without the assistance of MJO waves. There is a healthy MJO wave in phase 5 as of today, it would help el nino's cause of this would sustain itself across the Pacific. The current Roundy outlook takes it into the central Pacific before weakening it. Now that I took away the punch bowl, let me bring Tom's two cases of beer to the party. Dynamical/statistical models still outlook the el nino to the moderate threshold later than usual in winter ala 1968-69, only recent comparison I have found. If I had to choose a phase for this winter today I probably would go with enso neutral positive. While I am personally not all modoki about modoki, region 1,2 remains pretty cool (yes it is the most volatile) and that (1,2 leading the ssta category) is probably the only oh no flash point for winter. I don't recall outside of the 1950s another nino that was dominated by 1,2 so I am not going there either. It seems that the only enso state (and who know how the climate is changing if this even holds now) that is a true downer is a strong la nina and that is not happening this winter. Given the higher pwats overall I would argue that the true winter PHL snowfall climo "normal" is now closer to 30" so even a Tony Downer enso neutral positive winter (with 1,2 not leading the way) is not at all a snowless winter by any means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 FWIW, sun has continued to get quieter and quieter as the year progresses. Just about 3 weeks of no sunspots. I know the theory of quiet sun=increased arctic blocking episodes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted July 18, 2018 Report Share Posted July 18, 2018 Should I cancel winter yet? 🤓 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 18, 2018 Report Share Posted July 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Feb said: Should I cancel winter yet? 🤓 Don't wait until late January this time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2018 Amy says its too early to dust off the 09/10 analog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 24, 2018 Report Share Posted July 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Amy says its too early to dust off the 09/10 analog There is no dynamical or statistical model that is outlooking ssta in the 09-10 range and given they tend to run extreme, I can't say I disagree with Amy. I would be more impressed if someone came out with an outlook for this winter that had Dec & Feb stinking and January & March rocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 3, 2018 Report Share Posted August 3, 2018 Not exactly running on eight cylinders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 7, 2018 Report Share Posted August 7, 2018 On 8/3/2018 at 8:50 AM, Rainshadow said: Not exactly running on eight cylinders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 7, 2018 Report Share Posted August 7, 2018 Arctic sea (or lack thereof) ice is what it is these days. Another set-up for the new normal of above normal October snow spread. Sad part for summer is that the guns ablazing snow spread in October & November has no staying power the ensuing late spring/summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2018 On 8/3/2018 at 8:50 AM, Rainshadow said: Not exactly running on eight cylinders. Per blog below, the current SHemi Pacific favors a weak/central Pac nino https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/look-south-enso-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 7, 2018 Report Share Posted August 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: Per blog below, the current SHemi Pacific favors a weak/central Pac nino https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/look-south-enso-forecasters As per the blog, I don't understand how 2009-10 could be classified as weak. The tri-monthly ssta maxed at +1.6C. Granted 1,2 was not the warmest, but 3.4 had the greatest positive departures. Granted it is a sample size of 2 (1957-8 the other), but 2009-10 was the second perfect weak strong el nino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 A warm pool has developed south of AK again weaker but similar to 2013-14. However, I would pump the breaks rather quick here. Goals still for Warmer water 3.4 than 1.2 with hopefully sneaking up to a weak to moderate nino. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.