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Winter Outlook 2018-19 Discussion. October/November Temp Combo Ruling The Local Roost, Eurasia Snow Coverage Please Step Aside


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23 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

^ we take.... another fig crushing cold winter with abundant snow

I don't have much confidence in guidance parsecting the type of el nino or la nina for that fact and the tendency in the spring for the guidance to go el nino happy (just like last winter was suppose to be).  But it is ironic that the guidance link within Charlie's post looks nothing like modoki.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The ENSO modeling update for Mid June is holding its own for an el nino for next winter. The dynamical model peak has increased from +0.8C in April to +1.0C this month.  The four models that handled last winter the best (attached graph if you see otherwise) are all in nino territory except for the Aussie's. But if one corrects current conditions, even that model would bring weak el nino conditions.  My nino skepticism is waning.  Latest weekly 3.4 was up to +0.2C.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hope to see the CANSIPS continue with the modki theme nino with the update on Monday. CFS has a modki as well but the model output makes no sense for that type of nino. Modki ninos usually yield lots of wintertime fruit. 

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10 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Hope to see the CANSIPS continue with the modki theme nino with the update on Monday. CFS has a modki as well but the model output makes no sense for that type of nino. Modki ninos usually yield lots of wintertime fruit. 

You don’t really need a modoki, though that is preferred. A weak to moderate El Niño works. Strong El Niño’s can be trouble and swing either way.

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You don’t really need a modoki, though that is preferred. A weak to moderate El Niño works. Strong El Niño’s can be trouble and swing either way.

JP & I use to laugh at the play on words: what one really needs is a "weak" strong El Nino ala 1957-8 and 2009-10.  At least in my book the ability for models to skillfully place the ssta within a couple of tenths or max ssta location are lower vs getting the general idea correct.

 

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8ef78c193565ca14994442117312508a--debbie-downer-haha-funny.jpg.1c3e1ca258ed79d08fe0946cfc6a2b4c.jpg

 

So you know where this post is going.  I don't know.  I have seen enough el nino bandwagon jumping spring/summer modeling to remain skeptical and am not going to even go there about how every el nino is automatically a modoki because it's the only type we can have.  All others need not apply.

The SSTA are not rip roaring as of now and taking a look at the weeklies, they have actually cooled.

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Just because the sub surface is warm doesn't necessarily translate to the surface without the assistance of MJO waves.  There is a healthy MJO wave in phase 5 as of today, it would help el nino's cause of this would sustain itself across the Pacific. The current Roundy outlook takes it into the central Pacific before weakening it.

Now that I took away the punch bowl, let me bring Tom's two cases of beer to the party. Dynamical/statistical models still outlook the el nino to the moderate threshold later than usual in winter ala 1968-69, only recent comparison I have found.  If I had to choose a phase for this winter today I probably would go with enso neutral positive. While I am personally not all modoki about modoki, region 1,2 remains pretty cool (yes it is the most volatile) and that (1,2 leading the ssta category) is probably the only oh no flash point for winter.  I don't recall outside of the 1950s another nino that was dominated by 1,2 so I am not going there either.  It seems that the only enso state (and who know how the climate is changing if this even holds now) that is a true downer is a strong la nina and that is not happening this winter.  Given the higher pwats overall I would argue that the true winter PHL snowfall climo "normal" is now closer to 30" so even a Tony Downer enso neutral positive winter (with 1,2 not leading the way) is not at all a snowless winter by any means.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Amy says its too early to dust off the 09/10 analog

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There is no dynamical or statistical model that is outlooking ssta in the 09-10 range and given they tend to run extreme, I can't say I disagree with Amy. 

I would be more impressed if someone came out with an outlook for this winter that had Dec & Feb stinking and January & March rocking.

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Per blog below, the current SHemi Pacific favors a weak/central Pac nino

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/look-south-enso-forecasters

As per the blog, I don't understand how 2009-10 could be classified as weak.  The tri-monthly ssta maxed at +1.6C.  Granted 1,2 was not the warmest, but 3.4 had the greatest positive departures.  Granted it is a sample size of 2 (1957-8 the other), but 2009-10 was the second perfect weak strong el nino.

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A warm pool has developed south of AK again weaker but similar to 2013-14. :smileys-snowman-838525: However, I would pump the breaks rather quick here. 

Goals still for Warmer water 3.4 than 1.2  with hopefully sneaking up to a weak to moderate nino. 

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