June 29th UFN Excessive Heat OBS, Does Anyone Else Join Berkeley Township, Make That Toms River, In The 100s Club?

[Rainshadow]

Well this meteorological summer was not that bad up to this point.  And now....

 

PHL has reached 100 degrees 63 times since 1874. 

Last 100 degree day at PHL 7/18/2012

Last Back To Back 100 degree days at PHL 7/22-7/23/2011

Greatest Consecutive Number of Days 100 Degree Plus Highs at PHL: 3  both in early July of 1993 and 1966. 

Highest 100 degree day this century in PHL  103F on 7/22/2011

All Time Record High Temp at PHL 106F on 8/7/1918

[SalemCountyNJ]

I actually cut all of my lawns yesterday to avoid the extremes that are coming the next several days.  I still was sweating profusely....Thankfully the pool water was refreshing.

 

[Parsley]

2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Well this meteorological summer was not that bad up to this point.  And now....

Well, atleast this thread is.......

[mshaffer526]

Forecast high 100 degrees here on Sunday.  My goodness...

 

On the bright side lows will be a nice comfortable 70-72, I am looking forward to waking up at 5 AM just to sit outside for a couple of hours.

[Parsley]

48 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Forecast high 100 degrees here on Sunday.  My goodness...

 

On the bright side lows will be a nice comfortable 70-72, I am looking forward to waking up at 5 AM just to sit outside for a couple of hours.

One of my favorite things about summer (in the burbs) mornings with temps rising through the 70s. More motivation to get up and out in early in the day. Just waiting on the morning cicadas to arrive.

 

 

 

 

 

[Boch23]

Hey guys just popping in to let you know that it appears to be hot out the next couple of days.

[Rainshadow]

50 minutes ago, Boch23 said:

Hey guys just popping in to let you know that it appears to be hot out the next couple of days.

Thank-you for the PSA. Our first 90 degree day in this stretch.

[Rainshadow]

I saw the raw ob, Philly has reached at least 90F today, so it begins. GFS 2m temps 2-3F too high vs 2pm obs.

[Chubbs]

88 high

[colonel_kurtz]

the big torch summers of this century have failed to crack the club at this point

MOST CONSECUTIVE 90 DEGREE DAYS AT PHILA:

18 DAYS - 7/29 TO 8/15 1988

17 DAYS - 7/20 TO 8/5 1995 (24 out of 25 days back to 7/12)

13 DAYS - 8/24 TO 9/5 1953

12 DAYS - 7/23 TO 8/3 1999

12 DAYS - 7/12 TO 7/23 1952

12 DAYS - 6/25 TO 7/6 1901

[iceman56]

Maybe I should stay here in Orlando, cool light rain all day with temps falling back into the upper 70's.

[JimCaruso]

Pleasant morning to sit outside, not at all stifling as I thought it would be in the middle of the heat wave...

[Parsley]

51 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

Pleasant morning to sit outside, not at all stifling as I thought it would be in the middle of the heat wave...

Perfect morning. It will get worse in a few days when the dewpoints are up and we are coming off highs of 95-100. 

[irishbri74]

@Rainshadow any idea why models continually mix out the dews over SEPA: 

NAM 3k And 12k shown. Happens often on the models, and not sure how it verifies?

 

[Chubbs]

5 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

@Rainshadow any idea why models continually mix out the dews over SEPA: 

NAM 3k And 12k shown. Happens often on the models, and not sure how it verifies?

A Lanco sounding below with cooler surface temps and a resulting stronger cap to limit mixing. We'll find out tomorrow if it is right.

[Rainshadow]

13 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

@Rainshadow any idea why models continually mix out the dews over SEPA: 

NAM 3k And 12k shown. Happens often on the models, and not sure how it verifies?

 

Brian, I really don't know.  As Charlie said, let's see if this disparity is truly right tomorrow, I have a feeling the dew points overall are going to be closer than what is depicted.

[Rainshadow]

3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

A Lanco sounding below with cooler surface temps and a resulting stronger cap to limit mixing. We'll find out tomorrow if it is right.

That is an erroneous surface sounding dew point.  This is how the nam can generate thunderstorms in the middle of the Sahara.  The dew point surges from 68 to 73 in the lowest hundred feet?  Even that absolutely wrong dew point cant muster a thunderstorm, we are so capped.  That 100F for PHL is looking "good" or pretty gosh darn close for PHL. I am getting 98F or 99F Sun & Mon off the GFS's morning 925s.  You know what they say, drive for show and putt for 100F.

[Chubbs]

28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

That is an erroneous surface sounding dew point.  This is how the nam can generate thunderstorms in the middle of the Sahara.  The dew point surges from 68 to 73 in the lowest hundred feet?  Even that absolutely wrong dew point cant muster a thunderstorm, we are so capped.  That 100F for PHL is looking "good" or pretty gosh darn close for PHL. I am getting 98F or 99F Sun & Mon off the GFS's morning 925s.  You know what they say, drive for show and putt for 100F.

Feeling better about my three-putt now. No matter how you slice it, going to be very uncomfortable sun-tues, except close to the shore.

[Chubbs]

Dew point has dropped 8F this am at phl so model may be on to something. At noon phl was one of the more comfortable spots in the region.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PHILADELPHIA   PTSUNNY   88  60  38 VRB5      30.06S
NORTH PHILA    FAIR      92  63  38 S5        30.06F HX  93
BLUE BELL*     FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08R
DOYLESTOWN     FAIR      87  62  43 VRB5      30.06R
QUAKERTOWN*    SUNNY     88  66  48 VRB6      30.08R HX  90
PERKASIE*      FAIR      86  64  48 W5        30.09R
POTTSTOWN      FAIR      85  63  47 VRB6      30.09S
LANCASTER      FAIR      89  69  51 SW5       30.08R HX  93
COATESVILLE    FAIR      86  66  51 CALM      30.10S
READING        FAIR      89  70  53 W8        30.06R HX  94
ALLENTOWN      FAIR      91  64  40 S5        30.06S HX  92
MOUNT POCONO   FAIR      81  65  58 S8        30.13R
HAZLETON       FAIR      88  66  48 W5        30.15R HX  90
LEHIGHTON      FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08S
WILKES BARRE   FAIR      85  63  47 W9        30.07S

[pawxnut]

On 6/24/2018 at 11:09 AM, tombo82685 said:

The heat is coming, get ready for it. 

We're at 85 right now and around 90 next few days

 

 

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, pawxnut said:

We're at 85 right now and around 90 next few days

 

 

For your location at altitude, that’s heat

[tombo82685]

7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Dew point has dropped 8F this am at phl so model may be on to something. At noon phl was one of the more comfortable spots in the region.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PHILADELPHIA   PTSUNNY   88  60  38 VRB5      30.06S
NORTH PHILA    FAIR      92  63  38 S5        30.06F HX  93
BLUE BELL*     FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08R
DOYLESTOWN     FAIR      87  62  43 VRB5      30.06R
QUAKERTOWN*    SUNNY     88  66  48 VRB6      30.08R HX  90
PERKASIE*      FAIR      86  64  48 W5        30.09R
POTTSTOWN      FAIR      85  63  47 VRB6      30.09S
LANCASTER      FAIR      89  69  51 SW5       30.08R HX  93
COATESVILLE    FAIR      86  66  51 CALM      30.10S
READING        FAIR      89  70  53 W8        30.06R HX  94
ALLENTOWN      FAIR      91  64  40 S5        30.06S HX  92
MOUNT POCONO   FAIR      81  65  58 S8        30.13R
HAZLETON       FAIR      88  66  48 W5        30.15R HX  90
LEHIGHTON      FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08S
WILKES BARRE   FAIR      85  63  47 W9        30.07S

Play this loop, you can see some sort of front sweep through from the north http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-New_Jersey-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map

[Parsley]

Probably 100% wrong but any chance the models are designed to sniff out higher moisture (wetter landscape vs hot, dry hardscape) areas in rural, heavily vegatated areas? Like out in Iowa (cornfields) how dews get to 80+. I’ll Where as urban areas around Philly can’t hold the dews? 

Those maps show lower dews around most large cities. 

[Rainshadow]

6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Dew point has dropped 8F this am at phl so model may be on to something. At noon phl was one of the more comfortable spots in the region.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PHILADELPHIA   PTSUNNY   88  60  38 VRB5      30.06S
NORTH PHILA    FAIR      92  63  38 S5        30.06F HX  93
BLUE BELL*     FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08R
DOYLESTOWN     FAIR      87  62  43 VRB5      30.06R
QUAKERTOWN*    SUNNY     88  66  48 VRB6      30.08R HX  90
PERKASIE*      FAIR      86  64  48 W5        30.09R
POTTSTOWN      FAIR      85  63  47 VRB6      30.09S
LANCASTER      FAIR      89  69  51 SW5       30.08R HX  93
COATESVILLE    FAIR      86  66  51 CALM      30.10S
READING        FAIR      89  70  53 W8        30.06R HX  94
ALLENTOWN      FAIR      91  64  40 S5        30.06S HX  92
MOUNT POCONO   FAIR      81  65  58 S8        30.13R
HAZLETON       FAIR      88  66  48 W5        30.15R HX  90
LEHIGHTON      FAIR      86  63  45 S3        30.08S
WILKES BARRE   FAIR      85  63  47 W9        30.07S

In a relative sense a dew point min around PHL is working, but in raw numbers (I don't know Brian's valid time on the image, assuming it is this afternoon?) it is really stinking to high heaven in other places, especially in NY & New England

[Rainshadow]

2 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Probably 100% wrong but any chance the models are designed to sniff out higher moisture (wetter landscape vs hot, dry hardscape) areas in rural, heavily vegatated areas? Like out in Iowa (cornfields) how dews get to 80+. I’ll Where as urban areas around Philly can’t hold the dews? 

They  get the corn sweat in there. I don't know how much about non vegetation urban areas.