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6/10-6/11 Heavy Rain Observations


Rainshadow
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About every model I have looked at has some sort of convergence producing a heavy line of storms that just sits, then slowly drops south. Most of the models seem to want to put it from the tpk on north. Euro was tpk into northern DE. 

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

About every model I have looked at has some sort of convergence producing a heavy line of storms that just sits, then slowly drops south. Most of the models seem to want to put it from the tpk on north. Euro was tpk into northern DE. 

Looks like it wants to set up shop overhead. 

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yup, posted about that on twitter about 20 mins ago. Can see some sort of convergence going on. 

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

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I like days like this... I can sit on the porch and listen to the rain all afternoon and evening, rather than waiting until 6:30pm when it’s finally cool enough to go outside on a hot summer day. And I love going to sleep / waking up with the rain outside a wide-open window.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

If I had to pick which 12z or 18z model run suites is closest, I'd say the 18z rgem.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like fgen forcing.  The models are still not handling convection well farther to the southwest, so the general convergence along this boundary may not be as clean as they think. 

lines up pretty well with 850mb frontogenesis

8fnt_sf.gif

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