tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 Well looks like another weekend down the drain. We have a high octane airmass overhead with pwats over 2" currently from now through Saturday night. Best coverage of storms looks like Saturday afternoon which would have the highest risk of flash flooding. Sunday was looking relatively dry yesterday and this morning, well that has now possibly went down the Gigi drain. GFS keeps the area of low pressure further south which focuses the steadiest/heavier rain around DC land and southern DE. Euro is further north and parks the heavy rain over our area. EPS back the euro pretty strongly as I'm assuming the gefs back the gfs. If the euro is correct and eps could see a 1-3/2-4 uniform rainfall over the area with potential for higher amounts where areas get the drenching storms on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 Think Euro may be the lucky one. NAM did well the last time but haven't had a chance to look at it . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 nbc10 has a 3-6" dump with wind on sunday, fun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: nbc10 has a 3-6" dump with wind on sunday, fun They just basically humped the 12z euro which was the only model to show that. Eps were much more relaxed with 1-3” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: They just basically humped the 12z euro which was the only model to show that. Eps were much more relaxed with 1-3” Falshback to winter humping I'd rather have the 1-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 Another lost weekend.😢 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Rainshadow said: Another lost weekend.😢 This!!!!, I mean really ? Would be better if it was a major golf tournament weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 8 hours ago, Qtown Snow said: This!!!!, I mean really ? Would be better if it was a major golf tournament weekend The rough is going to be 5 feet high at Shinnecock. Sunday might be the lesser of two evils day fwtw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 0.07" yesterday, May final - 9.59" 0.28" earlier this morning to kick off June Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight. I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, cbelke said: No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight. I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation? I can't say I am following this closely because I am working 3 of the next 4 days. So deferring to the experts, this was yesterday's morning 5 day qpf vs this morning's 3 day qpf. I can't match up the days completely: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, cbelke said: No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight. I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation? For SE PA Monday could end up being the wettest day Leaving for an AC weekend shortly, hopefully sneak in some beach time this afternoon. We have an outing at McCullough's tomorrow morning, drip, drip, drip.....Once that wind turns around to the east really looks like it's gonna howl on the coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 Not sure if Sunday is going to be salvageable or not. Looks like rain will hold off for the morning in to the early afternoon. I have a wolf habitat to take a few people to in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM. Hopefully it doesn't rain for the couple of hours we are there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, cbelke said: Not sure if Sunday is going to be salvageable or not. Looks like rain will hold off for the morning in to the early afternoon. I have a wolf habitat to take a few people to in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM. Hopefully it doesn't rain for the couple of hours we are there. Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant ROFL!!! Tell us how you really feel about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 1 minute ago, cbelke said: ROFL!!! Tell us how you really feel about it. I don't watch the news, but from what Andy said they said 3-6" of rain. Only model that showed that was euro. Last night it went from 3-6" to .5-1" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I don't watch the news, but from what Andy said they said 3-6" of rain. Only model that showed that was euro. Last night it went from 3-6" to .5-1" Last night, 6ABC said 1.5" -3" and 2"-4" depending on what model you looked at. I know PWAT's are up there, so we'll just have to see where the low sets up shop. I'm just looking for a decent window of no rain for a couple of hours in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 Beautiful afternoon on the beach in AC. Be heading into ocean shortly, summer steamer today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 2 hours ago, cbelke said: Last night, 6ABC said 1.5" -3" and 2"-4" depending on what model you looked at. I know PWAT's are up there, so we'll just have to see where the low sets up shop. I'm just looking for a decent window of no rain for a couple of hours in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM on Sunday. I’ll take the under on those amounts. Think those amounts are isolated under heavier storms and slow moving ones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I’ll take the under on those amounts. Think those amounts are isolated under heavier storms and slow moving ones. Yeah, I'm not seeing any wide spread, its going to be the isolated storms as you said that cause the heavy downpours. Looks like the PWAT's came down a bit, it looks like most are under 2" now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 5 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant Global models don't do convection well and blanket 3-6" rarely work unless it is directly tropical related. I don't get a chance to easily see the Euro as I do the GFS, but it is no Einstein with convection either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted June 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Global models don't do convection well and blanket 3-6" rarely work unless it is directly tropical related. I don't get a chance to easily see the Euro as I do the GFS, but it is no Einstein with convection either. convection sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 whatever Falls at least I got a nice fresh cut in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 I guess like in the winter....the News covers Penn Dot Salt trucks getting ready, 6ABC decided they were going to cover PennDot clearing storm drains for the widespread vicious floods area wide tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 2, 2018 Report Share Posted June 2, 2018 Not a bad afternoon at all. Fair amount of sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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