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6/1-6/4 Heavy rain, flash flooding threat


tombo82685
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Well looks like another weekend down the drain. We have a high octane airmass overhead with pwats over 2" currently from now through Saturday night. Best coverage of storms looks like Saturday afternoon which would have the highest risk of flash flooding. Sunday was looking relatively dry yesterday and this morning, well that has now possibly went down the Gigi drain. GFS keeps the area of low pressure further south which focuses the steadiest/heavier rain around DC land and southern DE. Euro is further north and parks the heavy rain over our area. EPS back the euro pretty strongly as I'm assuming the gefs back the gfs. If the euro is correct and eps could see a 1-3/2-4 uniform rainfall over the area with potential for higher amounts where areas get the drenching storms on Saturday. 

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 Smiley face yawning emoticon (Funny Emoticons set)  No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight.

I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation?

 

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40 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 Smiley face yawning emoticon (Funny Emoticons set)  No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight.

I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation?

 

I can't say I am following this closely because I am working 3 of the next 4 days.  So deferring to the experts, this was yesterday's morning 5 day qpf vs this morning's 3 day qpf.  I can't match up the days completely:

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25 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 Smiley face yawning emoticon (Funny Emoticons set)  No measurable precipitation or marine puke overnight.

I guess today may be the only day out of the next four to mow the lawn? Although, it looks like models are shifting to the South. Am I correct in that observation?

 

For SE PA Monday could end up being the wettest day

Leaving for an AC weekend shortly, hopefully sneak in some beach time this afternoon. We have an outing at McCullough's tomorrow morning, drip, drip, drip.....Once that wind turns around to the east really looks like it's gonna howl on the coast.

 

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Not sure if Sunday is going to be salvageable or not. Looks like rain will hold off for the morning in to the early afternoon.

I have a wolf habitat to take a few people to in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM. Hopefully it doesn't rain for the couple of hours we are there.

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28 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Not sure if Sunday is going to be salvageable or not. Looks like rain will hold off for the morning in to the early afternoon.

I have a wolf habitat to take a few people to in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM. Hopefully it doesn't rain for the couple of hours we are there.

Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant

ROFL!!!  Tell us how you really feel about it. :rolleyes:

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

ROFL!!!  Tell us how you really feel about it. :rolleyes:

I don't watch the news, but from what Andy said they said 3-6" of rain. Only model that showed that was euro. Last night it went from 3-6" to .5-1"

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I don't watch the news, but from what Andy said they said 3-6" of rain. Only model that showed that was euro. Last night it went from 3-6" to .5-1"

Last night, 6ABC said 1.5" -3" and 2"-4" depending on what model you looked at. I know PWAT's are up there, so we'll just have to see where the low sets up shop.

I'm just looking for a decent window of no rain for a couple of hours in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM on Sunday. 

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

Last night, 6ABC said 1.5" -3" and 2"-4" depending on what model you looked at. I know PWAT's are up there, so we'll just have to see where the low sets up shop.

I'm just looking for a decent window of no rain for a couple of hours in Jackson, NJ at 11 AM on Sunday. 

I’ll take the under on those amounts. Think those amounts are isolated under heavier storms and slow moving ones. 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’ll take the under on those amounts. Think those amounts are isolated under heavier storms and slow moving ones. 

Yeah, I'm not seeing any wide spread, its going to be the isolated storms as you said that cause the heavy downpours. Looks like the PWAT's came down a bit, it looks like most are under 2" now.

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Sunday looks fine to me. The euro was off it's rails yesterday. Sucks for NBC10 for humping it like a dog on a fire hydrant

Global models don't do convection well and blanket 3-6" rarely work unless it is directly tropical related. I don't get a chance to easily see the Euro as I do the GFS, but it is no Einstein with convection either.

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20 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Global models don't do convection well and blanket 3-6" rarely work unless it is directly tropical related. I don't get a chance to easily see the Euro as I do the GFS, but it is no Einstein with convection either.

convection sucks

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