Rainshadow Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 I am expecting a yawn soon. I suppose it could be outlooked (fwiw probably not much) worse. CFS2 Monthly ridge axes either in Rockies or just to the lee of. June looks warmest relative to normal while to me August looks coolest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 No yawn from me, thats a northwest flow. Just keep that ridge well west of here and normal to a little above normal precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 21, 2018 Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover Also despite 8 straight 12hr periods of measurable rain. That is some hot air mass..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Love when the gfs pumps upper 90s with rain and 94% cloud cover If it were winter, the op would have been the run with the 552dm height into the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 28, 2018 Report Share Posted May 28, 2018 That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke. On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted May 29, 2018 Report Share Posted May 29, 2018 18 hours ago, tombo82685 said: That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke. On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week Gardens cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 29, 2018 Report Share Posted May 29, 2018 18 hours ago, tombo82685 said: That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under red block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke. On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week can see it here as we have an upper level low caught under the higher hgts to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PreserveJon Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 Looks like a lot of blue anomalies around the globe, except for ENSO regions and the Sargasso Sea. Overall not much change globally since last month - outslide the disappearance of the cold anomaly of the Pac NW and less cold intensity SW of South America - but I'm always curious of any potential influence on seasonal outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 On 5/28/2018 at 5:38 PM, tombo82685 said: That was an ugly look on the euro. EPS support it too with cut off low being caught under rex block. If true could be days and days of showers and onshore flow puke. On the plus side of things big heat is no where to be found the next 15 days with below normal hgts becoming established later this week This weekend's low caught under blocking high if that doesn't make you happy, the we have another 2 day later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 Maybe some 40s next week for lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Maybe some 40s next week for lows? Hopefully it will be a cold rain to go with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 30, 2018 Report Share Posted May 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, cbelke said: Hopefully it will be a cold rain to go with those temps. Wonder what parsley thinks about this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Wonder what parsley thinks about this I’ll take 40s and 50s....if it’s sunny. I need the yard to dry out. It’s gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)??? This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 31 minutes ago, Voyager said: At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)??? This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers? Cloudy yea it’s been miserable. Cool though, that it hasn’t. Philly is like 3+ degrees above normal. Barely had any below normal days this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Voyager said: At this point I wonder if we'll even have a summer (at least like the ones I remember from the past)??? This wash, rinse, repeat of the western ridge/eastern trough is getting old rather quickly. Does or can the pattern break down, or is summer just going to be miserable with a warm/hot day here and there followed by days of cool clouds and showers? All the official Mt. Holly stations are 4 - 6 degrees above average for the month. The nation as a whole is making a run a the warmest May on record. Eastern trough is not reflected in these anomalies, more a result of a few big highs over eastern Canada promoting a marine flow over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said: All the official Mt. Holly stations are 4 - 6 degrees above average for the month. The nation as a whole is making a run a the warmest May on record. Eastern trough is not reflected in these anomalies, more a result of a few big highs over eastern Canada promoting a marine flow over our area. Yup, Phily has only had 7 of 30 days this month below normal. Heck the average high still isn't even 80 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 It might just be an anomaly in the Tamaqua/Hazleton area, but it just seems like it's been cooler. Can't argue with those stats, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 43 minutes ago, Voyager said: It might just be an anomaly in the Tamaqua/Hazleton area, but it just seems like it's been cooler. Can't argue with those stats, though. Well remember you’re further nw and higher in elev. so your avg temp right now is probably mid 70s maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 7 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Yup, Phily has only had 7 of 30 days this month below normal. Heck the average high still isn't even 80 yet Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 31, 2018 Report Share Posted May 31, 2018 28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes. Looks like 18 of those days highs were above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 15 hours ago, Rainshadow said: Wonder if it has more to do with mins than maxes. In patterns like this (mild/wet) I always feel like that skews things Is there a place where highs and lows are recorded with each of there daily departures kept as well? Example: 82/70 .... +3/+8 for the day I'd also like access to daily norms. high/low in list form for each calendar day. Surely the great internet has that somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 1, 2018 Report Share Posted June 1, 2018 I see the NWS dailies have that breakdown.... A good example of a cloudy/wet day skewing things + with mild nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted June 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2018 Approaching Father's Day, the GFS has been going hog wild with temps near 100F and even over 100F because after all it is the GFS. But does the teleconnections and MJO fit the general idea? Well MJO phase 6 does support a heat ridge in the Gulf Coast states (pretty strong correlation), so if the MJO goes into it (Forget the GEFS outlook of it going backwards, some outlooks should be used as compost) and not dives into the COD, it is something to look at as to how strong the ridge is. At least phase 7 is strongly correlated to Great Lakes cool, so sustainability should not be an issue other than drying us out and making it easier for repeat offenders. The predicted teleconnections do show warmth across the board, so one can say the week of June 10th I would be on board for above normal temps, hopefully not as pie in the sky as some of those off sounding runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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