tombo82685 Posted May 13, 2018 Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 13, 2018 Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. Solid EML in play here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 13, 2018 Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 7 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Gotta watch out for Tuesday, could see slight or enhanced again. Assuming we get the warmth this go around strong instability, decent shear, and another good EML for hail and damaging winds threat Tuesday afternoon into evening. Tombo death knell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: Tombo death knell Lol, yesterday verified, just was a little further south than originally thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 Off the nam, but that is a sickass EML being shown on it. If thats correct and we get the warming shown, this is a hail and damaging wind setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 SPC day 3 already has us in marginal risk. I expect that to go go slight and probably enhanced again if these parameters are even close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 hours ago, tombo82685 said: SPC day 3 already has us in marginal risk. I expect that to go go slight and probably enhanced again if these parameters are even close. 18 &0z show a really solid EML advecting in overhead. >8°C is impressive, even for the Great Plains standards. If anything isolated pops, and goes super cellular, could see some big hail reports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 ...Upper Ohio Valley/northern Mid Atlantic Coast states... Ahead of the southward advancing cold front, models suggest that relatively steep lapse rates, associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed layer air, may contribute to moderate CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg with insolation by Tuesday afternoon. Highest moisture content and greatest instability may become focused within lee surface troughing across northern Virginia and central Maryland. This destabilization, coupled with favorable vertical shear beneath 30-50 kt mid-level flow on the southern fringe of the strong westerlies, may contribute to an environment conducive to organized thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. It appears that this may be aided by an area of forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude short wave impulse which is forecast to migrate across and east of the Alleghenies Tuesday afternoon. Convection may evolve into a consolidating thunderstorm cluster before developing southeastward into the stronger instability through early Tuesday evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 OK 72 dew point, silly, but mid 60s definitely doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Looks like predicted bulk shear better north of PHL, but this is the SREF prob of >2000J ML Cape, matches slight risk area pretty well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 13 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Lol, yesterday verified, just was a little further south than originally thought Given how crappy the air mass was on Saturday morning and where SPC STP guidance was, that south/southwest dip not surprising. We look like we are in better sector shape this go round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Given how crappy the air mass was on Saturday morning and where SPC STP guidance was, that south/southwest dip not surprising. We look like we are in better sector shape this go round. Yea, the instability numbers look solid. Combine that with good mid level lapse rates, hail and damaging winds will be an issue. Wouldn't surprise me if this gets bumped up to enhanced. Pretty good setup around here whenever you have a robust EML which is being shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. I'd say so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Thats a pretty sick sounding off the NAM for these parts. Thats some solid shear too. The EHI is pretty darn high too. Could see some supercells out ahead of main line tomorrow. One can put a man on the moon, but we still can't get a legit predicted dew point. Threat looks legit, just wish it can be put into proper perspective as this is "enhanced" beyond reality. Anyway a DCAPE of 1000J with a bogusly high dew point is nothing to sneeze at either as that value would be only higher unless the eml is wrong. Have to see if KY convection today overturns the air mass. Shear is predicted to be better north of PHL and better cape down this way. Legit true first shot at severe this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 They have an enhanced risk down in DC today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE Possible Derecho? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: HRRR trying to develop a MCS to hit southern PA then down possibly into DE Just saw that. Think that we only see elevated convection. The sounding was lacking cape (300j). This is for tonight* that MCS/ possible Derecho should drop SE towards Baltimore/southern DE. Maybe garden variety light show overnight? 3k NAM shows that look as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbelke said: Possible Derecho? Yea, it’s reflected in the SPC outlook. Big wind proba of 45%, with a chance of a mod risk. This threat should remain SE of the metro region, closer to Baltimore/SDE and points south. Our chnce is tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Yea, it’s reflected in the SPC outlook. Big wind proba of 45%, with a chance of a mod risk. This threat should remain SE of the metro region, closer to Baltimore/SDE and points south. Our chnce is tomorrow. Yeah the real heat and humidity today is southwest of DC. This should make more of a hard turn to the right than the models have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 These ladies and gentlemen are pretty good with these outlooks. We used to use them as a consistency/collaboration check for timing of thunderstorms in the tafs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Today looking more interesting here. We've already had a couple of strong storms from elevated instability this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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