tombo82685 Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Besides the enhanced severe thunderstorm risk tomorrow, there is also a threat for some heavy rainfall from these storms and then more rain on Sunday too. WPC has areas to the north in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Tomorrow is going to come down to how far north the warm front gets. If it gets to the LV, then best chance of severe weather IMO would be from the tpk region on south. If it lifts further north, to about the poconos then it's the LV to about Philly metro. This afternoons model runs weren't as aggressive with pushing the warm front as far north and keeps the severe threat south of i78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Looking forward to the pollen rinse 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 16 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: Looking forward to the pollen rinse Amen. I have the same green paint job everybody else has on my car Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 .71" as of 7am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodriveslow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 .43" in Fox Chase. Bit surprised we had that much. It's also a chilly 53. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 0.38", already heaviest pcpn for a CoCoRaHS report since April 19th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 0.15" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Will the warm front win this battle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Last several HRRR runs for 7 pm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Pretty decent look if we can get anything discrete to pop, which would be the hail/tor risk. Just have to see how far north the warm front pops. Not it sure if the morning convection enhances or craps out the set up later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: Last several HRRR runs for 7 pm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Models seem to be showing the clusters of t-storms being back to the West and bit further South. Looks they might slide down and attack VAY around 7 or 8 PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Just now, cbelke said: Models seem to be showing the clusters of t-storms being back to the West and bit further South. Looks they might slide down and attack VAY around 7 or 8 PM. I will be already sheltered indoors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Speaking of shelters, not that this would be new for Lancaster County (and not that it is a given either), but this is the predicted STP max this afternoon: A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most nontornadic supercells have been associated with vales less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 .34" so far in NW Chesco. Shelter in place this evening, 50 million people in the storms' path! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 0.99” overnight and this morning. Some heavier rain woke me out of a sound sleep. Few rumbles of thunder. Also a rather chilly 57.5F now.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 This morning's severe outlook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talonsmith Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Yikes, .76 in the CoCorahs guage this morning. I thought it would be low .30s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkersc Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 West Chester reporting in with 0.83" this morning in the bucket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Woke several times by downpours overnight 0.64" total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 euro last night got the warm front pretty far north, to about ABE land or so. Popped ptw and philly near 80. Current satellite shot shows the main area of stratus clouds associated with front is up in north central pa down to just north of ABE. Would think the low clouds south of that burn off at some point, it's just when. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmister Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Had 0.46" overnight, but by the looks of the ground you'd think it was more like 0.05". No ponding or pooling whatsoever. The grass needed it badly (0.01" here from April 30 until today). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Hrrr continues to throw out some impressive UH values. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro last night got the warm front pretty far north, to about ABE land or so. Popped ptw and philly near 80. Current satellite shot shows the main area of stratus clouds associated with front is up in north central pa down to just north of ABE. Would think the low clouds south of that burn off at some point, it's just when. IFR ceilings are really not helpful to get severe going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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