Jump to content

Mother's Day weekend Enhanced risk and Heavy rainfall


tombo82685
 Share

Recommended Posts

Besides the enhanced severe thunderstorm risk tomorrow, there is also a threat for some heavy rainfall from these storms and then more rain on Sunday too. WPC has areas to the north in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

98ewbg.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow is going to come down to how far north the warm front gets. If it gets to the LV, then best chance of severe weather IMO would be from the tpk region on south. If it lifts further north, to about the poconos then it's the LV to about Philly metro. This afternoons model runs weren't as aggressive with pushing the warm front as far north and keeps the severe threat south of i78

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of shelters, not that this would be new for Lancaster County (and not that it is a given either), but this is the predicted STP max this afternoon:

A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most nontornadic supercells have been associated with vales less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

Capture.JPG.ca00efae1fd44102c591b93af3b8b84b.JPG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

euro last night got the warm front pretty far north, to about ABE land or so. Popped ptw and philly near 80. Current satellite shot shows the main area of stratus clouds associated with front is up in north central pa down to just north of ABE. Would think the low clouds south of that burn off at some point, it's just when. 

CODGOES16-local-New_Jersey.02.20180512.140221-over=map-bars=none.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro last night got the warm front pretty far north, to about ABE land or so. Popped ptw and philly near 80. Current satellite shot shows the main area of stratus clouds associated with front is up in north central pa down to just north of ABE. Would think the low clouds south of that burn off at some point, it's just when. 

CODGOES16-local-New_Jersey.02.20180512.140221-over=map-bars=none.gif

IFR ceilings are really not helpful to get severe going. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...