ECMWF Upgrade 6/8 Will Include Lightning Predictions

[Rainshadow]

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+45r1#ImplementationofIFScycle45r1-Weatherparametersandwaves

Looks like 2M temp improvement too which to me this current version has had a cold bias.

 

[BeerandWXTogether]

How biased cold is the current Euro?

[Rainshadow]

2 hours ago, BeerandWXTogether said:

How biased cold is the current Euro?

I am sure they are not as open as EMC about it, but especially in urban areas like PHL, I don't think they think cities exist.  I have seen maps Tombo has posted after their busted high end snow forecasts (which is another issue that the Teflon Euro seems to not called out on as much as it should) that they radiate urban areas to all time record lows.

Here is a snap shot of one:

 

[BeerandWXTogether]

I've seen the cold bias in winter in situations with a polar trough or something like that where it overdid the 500 before easing out of it closer to the event. I wasn't aware that it was more than situational.

I've felt that the Euro has a bit of an extreme bias on it at times. Worked for Sandy but hasn't elsewhere.

[Rainshadow]

On 4/11/2018 at 6:57 AM, BeerandWXTogether said:

I've seen the cold bias in winter in situations with a polar trough or something like that where it overdid the 500 before easing out of it closer to the event. I wasn't aware that it was more than situational.

I've felt that the Euro has a bit of an extreme bias on it at times. Worked for Sandy but hasn't elsewhere.

Like you said it is more of an extreme bias, but since we are in a cold pattern, it goes colder than what it is, which is cold enough.

[rramblings]

Scuse me. If I may? First thanks as always for what I learn from reading your conversations about this and other models.

Perhaps I am wrong, but how much of the ECWMF model do I as a someone who does not pay for model subscriptions (no offense intended) have access to? That is, in looking at sites like pivotal models, and other sites what I see is fairly limited as compared to say the GFS models. I am not complaining that sometimes access to models may cost money, just trying to understand what I as an ordinary person has access to. Will take response via pm so as to not further disturb this thread.

Thanks! Tyler

[Rainshadow]

5 hours ago, rramblings said:

Scuse me. If I may? First thanks as always for what I learn from reading your conversations about this and other models.

Perhaps I am wrong, but how much of the ECWMF model do I as a someone who does not pay for model subscriptions (no offense intended) have access to? That is, in looking at sites like pivotal models, and other sites what I see is fairly limited as compared to say the GFS models. I am not complaining that sometimes access to models may cost money, just trying to understand what I as an ordinary person has access to. Will take response via pm so as to not further disturb this thread.

Thanks! Tyler

Tyler,

Try these two links.  It is the most thorough free info available that I am aware of:

The settings can be changed.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pennsylvania/temperature-f.html

https://www.windy.com/?40.026,-74.892,5