Weaker Magnetic Shield, Cosmic Rays From Sun, Increased Lightning and Hail(Severe Weather)

[Laddm]

I am no expert, but am an informed and knowledgeable novice on space weather and its effects on our planet. Here in the Northeast specifically, we have seen a large increase in Cosmic Rays( Stratospheric Radiation) over the past few years. Geomagnetic storms greatly affect cloud nucleation along with strength and frequency of lightning and hail generated within storm clouds. This is most likely why we have had 3 occurrences of thunder snow forecasted over the past 2+ weeks. I personally have experienced thunder snow 6 times in my life but do not remember it being forecasted with such frequency as of late. I feel weather models are lacking related data to correctly forecast the violent increase in "severe weather" we are just starting to experience. I am not offering up answers, instead would like to share and gather others opinions and knowledge related to this topic.  Below is a great presentation with related information. Its 60 min long but since no one can do yard work yet prob last weekend to be lazy asses!!

 http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073

[Rainshadow]

Have you ever heard of a gentleman named Jim Hughes?

[Laddm]

 

23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Have you ever heard of a gentleman named Jim Hughes?

Till now no. I searched and came up with a Baltimore Met that used the sun as reference in his forecasting of a snow storm feb 2008. That's all...

[Rainshadow]

55 minutes ago, Laddm said:

 

Till now no. I searched and came up with a Baltimore Met that used the sun as reference in his forecasting of a snow storm feb 2008. That's all...

Yeah. He used to post on Eastern/American weather about Space Weather influence on our weather. I don't know what happened to him.

[Laddm]

IMO his against the grain forecasting methods didn't fly with big brother. Prob discredited and exiled for thinking outside the box. 

[susqushawn]

I'll buy into anything if we can manage to actually see severe storms make it past Lancaster and Berks counties this year 

[Laddm]

2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

I'll buy into anything if we can manage to actually see severe storms make it past Lancaster and Berks counties this year 

I hear that, but could do without hail. Parts of south are already experiencing record size hail. Car ins. wont cover hail damage. If we are to get a geomagnetic storm that coincides with frontal a passage expect increased lightning frequency and severity. 

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/055004

[Feb]

23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah. He used to post on Eastern/American weather about Space Weather influence on our weather. I don't know what happened to him.

There was a rumor he passed away. I remember someone saying they saw an obituary for Jim.

[Laddm]

6 hours ago, Feb said:

There was a rumor he passed away. I remember someone saying they saw an obituary for Jim.

Not sure which is worse exile or death...sad either way. He left a unique legacy either way!

[Feb]

4 minutes ago, Laddm said:

Not sure which is worse exile or death...sad either way. He left a unique legacy either way!

He was attacked a lot by the usuals back then at a board I won’t mention. He just stopped posting and then I remember someone saying he passed away. 

[Laddm]

Never ending winter weather is not historic its cyclical. Weaker sun = colder earth...

 Its easy to see the correlation if you look at solar activity and colder climatological periods. The period between cycle 23 and 24 was the 2009-10 period.... ONLY THE SNOWIEST YEAR ON RECORD IN PHILLY!!!

 https://nextgrandminimum.com/

 

ker sun = colder earth. 

[Laddm]

Seeing that 2018 March snowfall is currently tied for 2nd with 1914 in the in the modern era fits perfectly into the solar cycles. Coming out of cycle 14 and into 15 we see an excellent example of history repeating itself relative to sun spot #. The more extreme weather experienced the less extreme it becomes. Having 100+ years of data to look back on really helps create a basis for Solar influence on earth weather. March 1914 also produced 2/3 below normal days for the month. 

                                                                                      rain              snow

3	1	1914	39	25	0.81	1.0
3	2	1914	25	16	0.25	5.0
3	3	1914	43	25	0.00	0.0
3	4	1914	46	35	0.00	0.0
3	5	1914	39	31	0.02	0.0
3	6	1914	36	30	0.68	3.0
3	7	1914	41	31	0.02	1.2
3	8	1914	45	30	0.00	0.0
3	9	1914	38	27	0.00	0.0
3	10	1914	41	27	0.00	0.0
3	11	1914	35	27	0.05	0.6
3	12	1914	36	21	0.00	0.0
3	13	1914	43	26	0.00	0.0
3	14	1914	46	28	0.00	0.0
3	15	1914	62	38	0.00	0.0
3	16	1914	66	36	0.00	0.0
3	17	1914	58	44	0.01	0.0
3	18	1914	48	33	0.35	0.0
3	19	1914	40	31	0.00	0.0
3	20	1914	34	22	0.15	1.4
3	21	1914	34	19	0.00	0.0
3	22	1914	38	24	0.09	3.0
3	23	1914	45	26	0.00	0.0
3	24	1914	50	34	0.00	0.0
3	25	1914	59	36	0.00	0.0
3	26	1914	67	51	0.00	0.0
3	27	1914	72	52	0.00	0.0
3	28	1914	60	39	0.17	0.0
3	29	1914	40	38	0.00	0.0
3	30	1914	44	35	0.11	0.0
3	31	1914	56	41	0.00	0.0

[BeerandWXTogether]

On 3/25/2018 at 11:52 AM, Feb said:

There was a rumor he passed away. I remember someone saying they saw an obituary for Jim.

So he's tracking a stratospheric tsunami from the great beyond?

[JimCaruso]

I hear that, but could do without hail. Parts of south are already experiencing record size hail. Car ins. wont cover hail damage. If we are to get a geomagnetic storm that coincides with frontal a passage expect increased lightning frequency and severity. 
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/055004

2018 has been relatively inactive so far with respect to severe weather, at least according to the chatter on the Stormtrack forum, where folks seem a bit concerned about the upcoming chase season. 2017 was awful, I ended a 14-day Plains chasing trip after just 4 days due to inactivity, so hope you’re right and 2018 is better.

[Laddm]

6 hours ago, JimCaruso said:

 

 

2018 has been relatively inactive so far with respect to severe weather, at least according to the chatter on the Stormtrack forum, where folks seem a bit concerned about the upcoming chase season. 2017 was awful, I ended a 14-day Plains chasing trip after just 4 days due to inactivity, so hope you’re right and 2018 is better.

 

 

Bummer.... i always wanted to experience a chase first hand. Would be awesome to hunt tornados. Witness two in my life, one in Horsham and Lansdale Pa. But nothing would compare to seeing it on open flat country. Storms today down south coincided with a coronal hole stream.... not too crazy today but managed 7 tornadoes and helped spark off some lightning 

[Rainshadow]

On 3/27/2018 at 7:20 PM, Laddm said:

Never ending winter weather is not historic its cyclical. Weaker sun = colder earth...

 Its easy to see the correlation if you look at solar activity and colder climatological periods. The period between cycle 23 and 24 was the 2009-10 period.... ONLY THE SNOWIEST YEAR ON RECORD IN PHILLY!!!

 https://nextgrandminimum.com/

 

ker sun = colder earth. 

Ok, so I am going down that rabbit hole, there is no evidence that this is occurring.

 

[Laddm]

 

The December 2017–February 2018 average temperature across the global land and ocean surface was the smallest temperature departure from average since 2014 and the fifth highest December–February period since global records began in 1880 at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average of 12.1°C (53.8°F). This value is 0.41°C (0.74°F) cooler than the record high set in 2016. With La Niña conditions present across the tropical Pacific Ocean during the three-month period, the globally averaged ocean surface temperature of 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.5°F) was also the smallest temperature departure from average since 2014 and the sixth highest February temperature in the 139-year record. The global land surface temperature was the seventh highest in the 1880–2018 record at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above average.

 

 

 

[Laddm]

 

2014 was at peak or top of solar cycle 24. Trend is cooling since then. When you turn your stove on it takes time to heat and then takes time to cool. Effects are not immediate. 

[Rainshadow]

3 hours ago, Laddm said:

 

2014 was at peak or top of solar cycle 24. Trend is cooling since then. When you turn your stove on it takes time to heat and then takes time to cool. Effects are not immediate. 

I hope you are right about the lag going forward, but there has not been a drop or trending drop since 1980.

[Laddm]

Albedo

"The fraction of solar radiation reflected by a surface or object, often expressed as a percentage. Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo, the surface albedo of soils ranges from high to low, and vegetation-covered surfaces and oceans have a low albedo. The Earth’s planetary albedo varies mainly through varying cloudiness, snow, ice, leaf area and land cover changes.""

When sunlight is reflected from something, that sunlight hasn't been absorbed so it doesn't contribute to warming that thing. So higher albedo has a cooling effect and lower albedo a warming effect.

https://www.sott.net/article/379252-Galactic-cosmic-rays-hitting-Earth-are-bad-and-getting-worse

 

[Laddm]

Great site to dive into earth weather/ sun connection.

http://solarcyclescience.com/

Discover the Sun!

The Sun provides Earth with warmth, light, and the energy that fuels our entire ecosystem. As the largest body in the solar system, the Sun is the focal point and guides the planets in their orbits. 

It is no surprise that it has been worshiped by cultures throughout history, yet there is still much that is not known about the Sun. Once thought to be constant and unchanging, it is only in modern times that is has become evident that the Sun is in fact extremely dynamic. 

Since the invention of the telescope, knowledge of the Sun has grown at an extraordinary rate. Each discovery brings new ideas and often conflict. Even now, our understanding of the Sun is constantly being redefined as each new discovery is made.   

We invite you to explore this site and Discover the Sun!!!

[CyphaPSU]

Interesting discussion, I just wrapped up teaching a unit in which we discuss sunspot activity and possible linkages with climate.

[Laddm]

With a the month almost wrapped up and Precip amounts monsoon like... I  thought it'd be a good time for some more Space and climate research. The link below is great  in helping connect solar cycles and earth weather along with cosmic radiation inducing unusual cloud nucleation. Global catastrophic hail events are up with hail size records being broken as well. We are at a time when weather forecasting needs to start considering more factors, like space weather, to improve advanced notification to the public, as weather becomes more and more volatile. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027475

[Laddm]

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/06/05/cooling-ocean-air-temps/

[Laddm]

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/