Congrats To Undefeated Parsley! Second Straight Contest He Guessed Two Of The Three Counties The NAM Came Closest With Its Snowfall Forecast!!!

[Rainshadow]

8 pm EDT deadline today (the 20th).

This one is tougher because the 12z NAM Kuchera was NAMMier on other runs.

Pick the 3 counties you think the NAM will come closest with its snowfall prediction within Mt. Holly's CWA in PA & NJ. Sorry DE & MD folks, picking Sussex DE might be too much of an easy win.  I will use an average of CoCoRahs reports for that county as verification.  If there are not three or more Cocorahs reports from that county, I will use the county average of the final Mt. Holly CWA.

As a tie breaker, please include a snowfall prediction for PHL.

Thanks, may the best person win!

 

[JCT777]

Lehigh and Northampton counties in PA. Mercer county in NJ.  PHL snowfall: 6.2".

[Rainshadow]

Just now, JCT777 said:

Lehigh and Northampton counties in PA. Mercer county in NJ.  PHL snowfall: 6.2".

Congrats John, so far you are the only contestant, which means you have a very good chance of winning. 

[Parsley]

Hunterdon, Morris, Warren

PHL: 4"

[Rainshadow]

Just now, Parsley said:

Hunterdon, Morris, Warren

PHL: 4"

Wow, you could possibly win your own golf balls again.

[greg ralls]

Montgomery, Chester, Berks

PHL: 13.0

[TTNwatcher]

Mercer, Camden, Berks.

 

PHL: 8.5

[Rainshadow]

4 hours ago, TTNwatcher said:

Mercer, Camden, Berks.

 

PHL: 8.5

I am glad you made it in time.

[cg41386]

Monmouth, Delaware, Lehigh

PHL: 9.6

[BeerandWXTogether]

Carbon, Cape May, Lehigh

PHL: 8.1"

[tombo82685]

Larry, curly, and moe

[Rainshadow]

I don't think anyone picked the three same counties, so let me work on an estimate and let me know if you are OK with this.

[Rainshadow]

If you have any comments on these estimates, please let me know way before the snow ends. 

Lehigh.................7.5". Congrats, the most chosen county

Northampton......6.5"

Mercer................15"

Hunterdon..........11"

Morris.................12.5"

Warren................8.5"

Montgomery...... 12.5"

Chester...............12"

Berks...................9"

Camden...............10"

Monmouth...........16" ❄

Delaware..............11"

Carbon..................5"

Cape May..............5"

 

Good Luck!

 

[Rainshadow]

I guess everyone is OK with the county estimates.  Well may the best counties win.

[Rainshadow]

On 3/21/2018 at 8:59 AM, Rainshadow said:

I guess everyone is OK with the county estimates.  Well may the best counties win.

I am going to do this after lunch.  To quote Tom, the 12z/20th NAM  did relatively well with this.

[tombo82685]

23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I am going to do this after lunch.  To quote Tom, the 12z/20th NAM  did relatively well with this.

It's snowfall wasn't horrendous, still was to high in i95 zone and to low nw. But it's qpf was awful

[Rainshadow]

3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

It's snowfall wasn't horrendous, still was to high in i95 zone and to low nw. But it's qpf was awful

Yeah it was not the nammiest and the nam was not that nammy throughout with its predictions. If anything, it had anti-nammy runs with the 00z nothing at all and 06z suppression run.  Actually the hrdps probably wins the clown snowfall awards or that rpm that had 25-30" in southern Bucks County.

 

[Parsley]

Nice screw job in southern CT. 

[Rainshadow]

33 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Nice screw job in southern CT. 

Meanwhile across the Sound...

Lol, congrats you won again.

[Rainshadow]

County average errors by the nam, negatives too dry, positives too snowy

Lehigh..................... -4.9"

Northampton..........-1.0"

Mercer.....................+7.2"

Hunterdon..............+0.4"

Morris.....................+3.6"

Warren....................-0.4"

Montgomery..........+2.1"

Chester...................+4.3"

Berks......................-2.3"

Camden..................+2.5"

Monmouth..............+4.4"

Delaware.................+2.6"

Carbon....................-2.4"

Cape May................+1.2

 

[Rainshadow]

Congrats to Parsley!  He won getting two of the three lowest counties correct!  You get to keep those cherished golf balls.   John got one county correct.

In the contest within a contest, Tom came closest to PHL's actual snowfall, off by 0.5". BTW your consensus forecast of 8.2 inches came closer than 75 of the 77 model/ensemble snowfall forecasts for Philadelphia.

 

 

[tombo82685]

16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Meanwhile across the Sound...

Lol, congrats you won again.

Are you sure? Pretty sure Larry, curly, and moe won. 

[Rainshadow]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Are you sure? Pretty sure Larry, curly, and moe won. 

The game was fixed, Wynken, Blynken, and Nod won.

[tombo82685]

Just now, Rainshadow said:

The game was fixed, Wynken, Blynken, and Nod won.

What about gigi heisy and jrodd?

[Rainshadow]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

What about gigi heisy and jrodd?

Drat, you figured out our aliases.