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Only on this forum are snow maps described as drool worthy and beautiful lol

My final call 

Who needs that when you have the new High End forecast from Mount Holly. The 1 in 10 chance map:

40 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ggem is nice, but that timing blows, take that map and cut in half

You can take an additional quarter to third off for its wet bias.

Prior to the WEFS gagging on Nor'easter #3 as far as PHL itself went, we would be in 100% it will measure (at PHL) territory after the 00z run last night.  The 100% guarantee it will measure at PHL on the EPS is 4.8".

I know I am Dr. Sleet, but there are definite sleet indications in the GFS's predicted thermals.

Untitled.jpg.bd874888694bb7c690fa245834c09517.jpg

index.png.42aa60a364595ca23f9bc6298977b201.png

 

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29 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

I was thinking that earlier if this was January 15th I'd be so stoked for this potential.  

Yea, but I wonder if we were a month ago if this would of been a suppression pattern

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I dunno...something feels off.  Maybe it's the optimism from Feb, logic from Tombo, DC bullseye on the Euro, apathy from IrishBri, exhaustion from last week, not enough exuberance from Heisi, limited dog in snow pics from Qtown, southern EPS, LanCo shaft zones, any reference to Mar '58, anxiety from Baseball0618, no Wxsim updates from Paul, Mitch moving to BGM, NE getting a blizzard, Monmouth and VAY jackpots, Tony 4.8" threshold...I think I just need the Euro to absolutely NAM us, then my snow weenie meter might perk up.  For now I'm nervous.

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yea I noticed that stormvista snowmaps are very strict with snow maps where they only show accumulation if surface is below freezing, however at the same rate they completely ignore sleet parameters.

Anyone have the 00z ukie @ 144hrs?

ukm2.2018032012.108.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

ukm2.2018032100.120.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

ukm2.2018032200.144.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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5 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

That primary still gets pretty far N on the ukie fwiw. 

yup, probably would have some mid level issues until coastal takes over and wraps colder air in

 

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15 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

No one mentioned the 00z Ukie. On the free site I use it didnt update last night, but on stormvista it has. It is south of its 12z solution, but still looks like it would have a bomb at 24 hours.

Edit:  This is what I will wait to see until I get overly excited.   

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, but I wonder if we were a month ago if this would of been a suppression pattern

Maybe but what I am referring to is the predicted path and evolution.  A Warm air advection front end thump sounds much more sexy in January that late March if you follow me?

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Just now, Baseball0618 said:

Maybe but what I am referring to is the predicted path and evolution.  A Warm air advection front end thump sounds much more sexy in January that lat March if you follow me?

Ooo I agree, I would much rather have this in January, but I'm not gonna be picky if it snows in March

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ooo I agree, I would much rather have this in January, but I'm not gonna be picky if it snows in March

Neither will I but I don't want 1.5" water equivalent and 1" accumulation.  If that's the case then please head north and just rain! 

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1 minute ago, Baseball0618 said:

Neither will I but I don't want 1.5" water equivalent and 1" accumulation.  If that's the case then please head north and just rain! 

I would still take that. Any snow that falls from the sky is better than rain. I mean whats the difference between what you said and just rain? They would both be gone the next day. So I would rather have flakes falling from the sky, we can get rain anytime of the year. Can't say that about snow. 

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This is a non suppressive signal on the GEFS wrt to the NAO.  Notice the difference how St. Patrick's precip gets shunted south.  It is Archambaultish especially on the day 7 outlook.  Tough to have an event like this (unless it is snowing to beat the band, whatever that means) at this time of year and not run into ptype or intensity issues. 

nao.sprd2.gif.56d102f1d09956c6dedbf6bf5e608084.gif

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would still take that. Any snow that falls from the sky is better than rain. I mean whats the difference between what you said and just rain? They would both be gone the next day. So I would rather have flakes falling from the sky, we can get rain anytime of the year. Can't say that about snow. 

White rain is a tease 

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31 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I dunno...something feels off.  Maybe it's the optimism from Feb, logic from Tombo, DC bullseye on the Euro, apathy from IrishBri, exhaustion from last week, not enough exuberance from Heisi, limited dog in snow pics from Qtown, southern EPS, LanCo shaft zones, any reference to Mar '58, anxiety from Baseball0618, no Wxsim updates from Paul, Mitch moving to BGM, NE getting a blizzard, Monmouth and VAY jackpots, Tony 4.8" threshold...I think I just need the Euro to absolutely NAM us, then my snow weenie meter might perk up.  For now I'm nervous.

What about lack of min 20 page thread snow algorithm hype banter :(..... Seriously though this has a let down vibe all over it like the March sleet fest last year. I know the GFS is bad with thermals but seems like a white rain event unless rates can stay heavy for a extended period of time. Besides its grass season!!!! I want to put my f'n snow equip away!!!!

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13 minutes ago, Laddm said:

What about lack of min 20 page thread snow algorithm hype banter :(..... Seriously though this has a let down vibe all over it like the March sleet fest last year. I know the GFS is bad with thermals but seems like a white rain event unless rates can stay heavy for a extended period of time. Besides its grass season!!!! I want to put my f'n snow equip away!!!!

you really need this to be at night. Gotta keep expectations in check. There is a reason why philly hasn't really had a snow event over 10" this late. There have been 2 events, not impossible but rare

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What would be ideal is, get that first piece of energy to hit Monday night, then we get a lull during the day. Then get the better coastal for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That would maximize accumulations

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you really need this to be at night. Gotta keep expectations in check. There is a reason why philly hasn't really had a snow event over 10" this late. There have been 2 events, not impossible but rare

The one and only that occurred in April 1915 did fall during the day. But check out the precipitation amount 2.28" within 14 hours.  It would have been a 4" event if it precipitated the entire 24 hours.

 

Capture.JPG

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

The one and only that occurred in April 1915 did fall during the day. But check out the precipitation amount 2.28" within 14 hours.  It would have been a 4" event if it precipitated the entire 24 hours.

 

 

Yup, need the thump, or you're in the dump

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you really need this to be at night. Gotta keep expectations in check. There is a reason why philly hasn't really had a snow event over 10" this late. There have been 2 events, not impossible but rare

This is the year of rare! 4th major NE'ter in 2 weeks... Thunder snow being forecast again.....and no more bus posts!?

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