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March 6th-7th Miller B, Let's Do It Again....


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2 minutes ago, JCT777 said:

Kinda sorta, yes. Except that very little snow was forecast for that event (maybe an inch or two of slush on the backend) - even as late as mid-morning on the 5th.  And then...double-digit snows fell across most of the NW suburbs. For this one, people will have a good idea of what to expect before attempting to go anywhere tomorrow morning.

One thing that could be similar is the sudden flip from heavy rain to giant parachutes

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I took the plunge, but this is what happened when you follow the nam

Even my cat is drooling over the NAM:  

And there you have it for Lancaster County.  Would love to get some thunder snow out of this.  Should be fun times tomorrow for our area.

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/971091086469992450/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.millersville.edu%2F~wic%2F

 

Erikh.PNG

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37 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Euro looks great for everyone. 8bb5d970a7b7dcf0ec17671546e426a3.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Its a beautiful picture. I'll take work (Fort Washington) getting hammered since I'll now be WFH, but wouldn't mind a 10 mile tick SE.

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29 minutes ago, NEchestercountydude said:

Euro has the overnight snow too, around two inches for the area.

Are we allowed to post wx.graphics stuff?

Yup, I'd say post euro stuff too. It's all over the place now

 

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As much as I'd like it, the Euro looks like an outlier with respect to the rain/snow line. I haven't seen the Ukie, but all the other major non-Euro models pretty much agree upon a huge p-type gradient in New Castle County.

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1 minute ago, snowlurker said:

As much as I'd like it, the Euro looks like an outlier with respect to the rain/snow line. I haven't seen the Ukie, but all the other major non-Euro models pretty much agree upon a huge p-type gradient in New Castle County.

Well the euro does have that gradient. Northern part of county close to a ft, southern part 3"

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29 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

 

I'd like follow your wisdom, jedi masters, but for the rain/snow battleground, the GGEM and Euro are worlds apart according to what is depicted on weather.us. As Vinny Barbarino would say, "I'm so confused!". Bonus points to anyone who gets that...

Ba-Ba-Ba, Ba-Barbarino…

(Horshack laughing)

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well the euro does have that gradient. Northern part of county close to a ft, southern part 3"

I wasn't being very precise. The NAM, GFS, GGEM, NAM, and Icon all exhibit 1-3" IMBY (just south of the Canal down the road a ways from MD border). The Euro has the same type accums down in Kent County. Not that the NAM, GFS, GGEM, and Icon are identical in all other respects of course.

I'll just accept the Euro as one more bit of information.

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2 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I wasn't being very precise. The NAM, GFS, GGEM, NAM, and Icon all exhibit 1-3" IMBY (just south of the Canal down the road a ways from MD border). The Euro has the same type accums down in Kent County.

You are in a difficult spot to forecast. For ptype I'd hedge to the cooler models but accumulation will be difficult between 9 and 3.  If HRRR is right you may get your best accumulating snow in the early AM.

HRRRearly am.gif

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20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here is the euro kuchera map, which is the way to go since places close to mix line will be less than 10-1

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_philadelphia_10.png

Safe to say the forecast for the city is a complete crapshoot. I will resign myself to a slushy coating - nothing wrong with managing expectations and manufacturing pleasant surprise. 

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

You are in a difficult spot to forecast. For ptype I'd hedge to the cooler models but accumulation will be difficult between 9 and 3.  If HRRR is right you may get your best accumulating snow in the early AM.

HRRRearly am.gif

Yeah, that could very well be a wild card down here.

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43 minutes ago, november2003 said:

And there you have it for Lancaster County.  Would love to get some thunder snow out of this.  Should be fun times tomorrow for our area.

https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/971091086469992450/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.millersville.edu%2F~wic%2F

 

Erikh.PNG

For a forecast with reasonably high uncertainty below the red dotted line, that's a damn good map.

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6 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Mt. Holly map posted...this looks very reasonable to me.  Philly is definitely a crapshoot.

DXoR5ZYWsAIcWUg.jpg:large

Good map! my only tweak would be to bring the 12" + line down into Berks NW Montco and NW Chesco....but of course it could be mixing concerns etc.

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