Rainshadow Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 SSW is here.... CWG three week SSW DCA climo average ETA would be March 5th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 I realize that this outlooked pattern change is crossing over seasons, if you are talking about something in March and March alone, please start using this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 The first week of March on the CFS2 now vs a week ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: The first week of March on the CFS2 now vs a week ago Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna Still doubt you would get a cutter with that block in place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Feb said: Still doubt you would get a cutter with that block in place Not saying you would, more implying that the temps wouldn't be terribly cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 It's been a while since we have had this robust of a -nao signal this time of year, so not to familiar with how temps would go. Looking at that map at face value It doesn't get me to excited when I see a straight zonal flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: It's been a while since we have had this robust of a -nao signal this time of year, so not to familiar with how temps would go. Looking at that map at face value It doesn't get me to excited when I see a straight zonal flow. Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal It's too bad the negative departures didn't start showing up sooner and going away sooner. Come the first week of March, batting practice will be hell on the hands during very chilly weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baseball0618 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Stronger with the -nao, but also stronger with the -pna Candidate for a swfe I would think. Just need to time it right with a cold shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 7 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Like I mentioned last night, it looks like the pattern where when it's precipitating it can have a some solid - departures and offer wintry appeal. Outside of that during sunny days it looks close to normal In March it can easily snow the day after the high reaches 50F; that temp is not the death knell it would be in either Dec or Jan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 hours ago, irishbri74 said: Not funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 I dunno, the blocky period showing up late in feb into march looks rather meh to me. Yea it's very blocky in Canada but the flow for cold air is garbage. Almost looks like the block hooks up with the se ridge to a degree. Obviously the WEKS, well go WEFS with it and the cold air. GEPS and eps are very close together on rather MEH look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Unless Tom ( isotherm ) can paint a brighter picture, this looks like ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, Feb said: Unless Tom ( isotherm ) can paint a brighter picture, this looks like ...... I’m taking below normal regime. You can still get a winter storm. Like Tony said, in March it’s common to go from 50 one day to snow the next. Plus, this is still outside 10 days, not really in lock down territory per say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 JMA weeklies turn around weeks 3 and 4 retrograding the pattern and getting rid of the SE ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I’m taking below normal regime. You can still get a winter storm. Like Tony said, in March it’s common to go from 50 one day to snow the next. Plus, this is still outside 10 days, not really in lock down territory per say. Oh got ya. With the blocking anything is possible. Even I would take a cut off type march 1958 type deal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, Feb said: Oh got ya. With the blocking anything is possible. Even I would take a cut off type march 1958 type deal Exactly, the block is still there so something can easily sneak under it. Would prefer the WEFS as it would give a better chance over the eps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimCaruso Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 In March it can easily snow the day after the high reaches 50F; that temp is not the death knell it would be in either Dec or Jan.Why is March any different in that regard, couldn't the same fluctuation happen just as easily in Jan/Feb?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 uhoh, HM has mentioned Mar62 also 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yea but that’s also going off the wefs which I’m not sure is right. We will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Yea but that’s also going off the wefs which I’m not sure is right. We will see I am not sure it is right either. At minimum, looks like there will be a better chance of a slow moving storm due to the blocked Atlantic flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Chubbs said: I am not sure it is right either. At minimum, looks like there will be a better chance of a slow moving storm due to the blocked Atlantic flow. A blend between the two would probably work too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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