tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2014 Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 Just thought I would start a thread for this, to give Adam to salivate over since the tropics have been non existent. Most modelling indicates a tropical system should form in the Caribbean at some point in the next day or two. From there majority of the (0z) modelling has it moving nw/nnw towards the se coast in some way or another. As of now, most modelling also agrees that a late week trof sweeping down should kick this system sea bound, but it's never that simple when it comes to these systems. Even if a close by brush/ or possible a landfall "as of now" most of the models keep this as a weak hurricane at most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 23, 2014 Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 Recon this morning so far has not found a well-defined surface circulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 Gfs gets 96l close to the southeast coast but trof coming across the country kicks it out to sea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 Td #4 at 5pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2014 Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 It seems like the models (the ones that did) are backing away TD4 from going into the Gulf. 18z GFS does a hard right turn now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 23, 2014 Report Share Posted August 23, 2014 Its about a 150 degree turn from what the 18z GFS did yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 Euro is pretty much same as 0z. Doesn't get it as close as gfs, bends it out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 Most of the modelling continues to keep td #4 out to sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 24, 2014 Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 It's now Cristobal http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/115019.shtml?5-daynl#contents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted August 24, 2014 Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 Most of the modelling continues to keep td #4 out to sea. You have to get up for 5 am on a Sunday and you're not a NWS shift worker? . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 You have to get up for 5 am on a Sunday and you're not a NWS shift worker? . Lol 415am for work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 25, 2014 Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 Lol 415am for work No wonder why you love winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2014 No wonder why you love winter. LOL, yea that is one of the reasons. Those wake ups though are done after this weekend, as it's to dark now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 I'm headed to the Outer Banks (Kitty Hawk) on Saturday. A few years back, we were forcibly evacuated by Hurricane Irene, two nights before our scheduled departure. To make matters worse, the lifeguards put up red flags just when some sweet 15 foot backbreakers waves were breaking for some sweet boogieboarding. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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