chescowx Posted December 8, 2017 Report Share Posted December 8, 2017 Back by popular demand....here we go with the 1st...but not last Wxsim forecast for snow events for the new winter season Forecast initialized at 7pm on 12/7/17 Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 28, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind northeast near calm in the morning, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Moderate fog. A slight chance of snow. Low 22. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind west around 3 mph in the evening, becoming 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wxsim forecast for NW Chester County Pa using 6z NAM/GFS Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 15, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 19. Wind northeast near calm in the evening, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 19. Wind chill around 3. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wxsim text forecast with 12z data - also of note has quite a bit of sleet and IP Monday night into Tuesda AM....one event at a time here WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 1:00 PM Jan 3, 2018 _______________________________________________________________________________ This afternoon: Partly cloudy. High 27. Wind southeast around 2 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 15. Wind chill ranging from 5 to 19. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming north around 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 3. Wind north around 14 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 With the 18z data not surprisingly beginning to lower forecasts for the NW burbs...a general 3" to 5" for now WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 6:00 PM Jan 3, 2018 _______________________________________________________________________________ Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 23. Wind north-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 4. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: With the 18z data not surprisingly beginning to lower forecasts for the NW burbs...a general 3" to 5" for now WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 6:00 PM Jan 3, 2018 _______________________________________________________________________________ Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 17. Wind chill ranging from 6 to 23. Wind north-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 20. Wind chill around 4. Wind north-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Whatever the nam and gfs do, that will just regurgitate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Whatever the nam and gfs do, that will just regurgitate. Exactly I have it set as a 50/50 split between those 2 models - so hopefully the forecast is a good middle of the road solution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2018 Report Share Posted January 4, 2018 40 minutes ago, chescopawxman said: Exactly I have it set as a 50/50 split between those 2 models - so hopefully the forecast is a good middle of the road solution I figure if we can get a good .2 qpf we should be good for 3-4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 WXSIM not quite as enthused for a sub zero low as my NWS point and click...NWS has one below and WXSIM says + 2...I generally side with NWS but I think WXSIM will win this one as I see us staying on the plus side of zero tonight....lower spots - for sure below but here it is a very rare event. WXSIM. Regarding the Monday winter event...WXSIM sees only .08" of liquid but sees a bit more snow or sleet than ZR....with a high of 31 vs the NWS 32 - either way timing will be the issue...even .05" of liquid irrespective of whether the air temp it's 31 or 33 will freeze with the cold ground and snow cover etc. I would expect at WWA tomorrow even though it is minimal regarding accumulation/accretion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted January 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2018 Latest Wxsim has some light snow starting toward Tuesday AM with the snow ending by 2pm with around 2" of snow accumulation. For the Friday event it has snow arriving by 6am and ending toward evening with 3" or 4" of snow accumulation for NW Chester County Pa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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