Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 Welcome winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 Yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 Someone wake me up for the winter of 2037 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Someone wake me up for the winter of 2017 Fixed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 This would help get some wave 1 hits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2017 Report Share Posted November 16, 2017 We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. Yeah southeast ridge on the side of a milk carton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: Yeah southeast ridge on the side of a milk carton. Mitch loves the se ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Mitch loves the se ridge What's not to love? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Rainshadow said: What's not to love? 9pm sunsets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, tombo82685 said: 9pm sunsets Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: We are out in weenie-ville, but umm got NINO? That is not at all a nina look, very nino esque with Aleutian low/ ridge on west coast, split jet. You have your polar jet to the north and southern jet to the south. Not over powering cold nor is it warm either. Certainly would be stormier. Ehhh,.. I don't think that's as promising as it looks. Retreating PV into Siberia and PAC jet on roids blasting into mainland Canada. Call me skeptic I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Ehhh,.. I don't think that's as promising as it looks. Retreating PV into Siberia and PAC jet on roids blasting into mainland Canada. Call me skeptic I guess. Agreed it's not a great look was just showing that we are going opposite of what we should be looking at right now. It's not a cold pattern nor warm but stormier. Stratosphere wise though, it's a better pattern. Aleutian low+Siberian high helps with pv disruption. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Mitch loves the se ridge don't jinx it or it will start showing on the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Just now, Mitchg said: don't jinx it or it will start showing on the models. Ooo it's coming for you Mitch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchg Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Ooo it's coming for you Mitch Hopefully a repeat of last Jan where the nw shift due to the ridge brought the snow inland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, Mitchg said: Hopefully a repeat of last Jan where the nw shift due to the ridge brought the snow inland. yea the storm where I was under 35 dbz and the sun was coming out lol. Then it goes over your area and it's 2"/hr snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Charlie, I moved the outlooks into the outlook thread, not that they would necessarily be easy to find, but in here they almost definitely will get buried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 I would certainly take this look moving forward. That would offer some chances IMO if that look held. Split flow with northern and southern stream coming together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2017 Looks like there would be another cold air dump into NOAM as winter starts if this is close: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2017 Report Share Posted November 19, 2017 Out in weenie-ville and probably will be gone but I don't think I have ever seen a wave 3 hit on the strat like the euro op had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2017 Report Share Posted November 19, 2017 Not a ton of change in EPS run today. Very nino look with split flow, ridging into AK, trough in southwest. Se ridge comes alive but is also met with a PV close to Hudson Bay area. So you get a very compressed flow right over or just to our north. Could get lucky if we can minimize the se ridge look, because I think it will be pretty stormy in that timeframe with energy spitting out of the Southwest. I'd rather be in Detroit area to Burlington though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2017 Report Share Posted November 20, 2017 Some big warming in enso 1.2 this week while 3.4 had a big drop off. They are now equal in terms of temps. Not sure it's an east base still right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2017 1.2 always has alot of volatility. The natural progression with ninas (or ninos) is for the first sign of decay is in this region. Not saying this is the case now, just speaking in generalities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2017 Report Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said: 1.2 always has alot of volatility. The natural progression with ninas (or ninos) is for the first sign of decay is in this region. Not saying this is the case now, just speaking in generalities. Makes sense then why feb is usually warmest month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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