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Potential winter storm threats


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This just popped up on the 6z gfs, was there on the 0z run but was further north. The gefs aren't to excited over it either.Need to get a good pna surge for this so that big closed low can come further south. But there is a piece of energy rotating around on the periphery of it that if you amplify the flow enough and back it could produce something. The 6z gfs run had a coating to an inch over the area with this shortwave for this coming Sunday

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Again off the 6z gfs, this is for my Thanksgiving chance. But this is pretty solid right here. You have your pna spike. a huge sprawling 50/50 low caught under the west base -nao. In that situation that h5 low would either have to go underneath it or phase with that 50/50 low and just become a massive cut off closed low underneath the block. It could also get sheared out as it's moves east.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

euro in Dr No mode. Need to get the weekend system that becomes a 50/50 sorted out first.

The ridge out west is to far east which causes the trough in the east to be to far east. That pacific look needs to shift too. Can't have a trough right on the west coast, thats where the ridge needs to be. That will give it the spacing to turn the corner and not crushed into FL. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

While not a snow storm, still looking good for flurries and snow showers on Sunday

if we only had a little more amplified pattern. Shift the ridge out west further west and amplify it more. This is a potent piece of energy

 

gfs_z500a_us_fh120-150.gif

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7 hours ago, Chubbs said:

weather.us has eps snow depth forecasts out to 15 days. Philly has gone from near zero for tday --->zero in past couple of cycles.

Screenshot-2017-11-14 Weather forecast ensemble for Philadelphia.png

Several members showed a snowfall somewhere the region just after Thanksgiving 00z today was much better than 12z , new members should be out in a hour.

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22 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I think the T-giving storm or thereabouts is on life support for wintry weather. Just need seeing jet amplification to tap into some cold air. 

Probably gotta wait till afterwards , that weekend now. Too much volatility in the med range right now.

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